Rochester NY FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU13 · 9 teams · RNY FC Youth (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:30 PM
Gameday Sports, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.1 for, 4.3 against · 0.20 expected points)
| Season so far | Rochester NY FC | Upper 90 FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-4 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 6.8 | 2.2 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L | W L L L L |
| Biggest win | — | 4–1 vs WNY Flash |
| Worst loss | 0–10 vs WNY Flash | 0–3 at Steel City FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -3.65 | -0.23 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.12 | +0.40 |
Common opponents: Steel City FC — we 0–7; they 0–3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds — we 1–4; they 0–1. WNY Flash Rochester — we 0–6; they 1–2. WNY Flash — we 0–10; they 4–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–7 at Steel City FC, 0–6 vs WNY Flash Rochester, 0–10 vs WNY Flash.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 4%; a draw (7%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 02:30 PM at Gameday Sports.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Upper 90 FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rochester NY FC – Upper 90 FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
| Win 0.60 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
| Draw 0.20 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th 100%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Croatia Juniors | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.33) | 54 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection |
| 2 | Cleveland Force SC | 2.40 (+2.40) | 2nd (2.12) | 44 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection |
| 3 | Steel City FC | 1.67 (+1.67) | 3rd (1.79) | 31 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 4 | WNY Flash | 1.50 (+1.50) | 4th (1.51) | 27 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 5 | T3FC East | 1.40 (+1.40) | 5th (1.46) | 26 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 6 | WNY Flash Rochester | 1.17 (+1.17) | 6th (1.34) | 22 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1.17 (+1.17) | 8th (1.16) | 22 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 8 | Upper 90 FC | 1.00 (+1.00) | 7th (1.20) | 18 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
How the results connect
16 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Rochester NY FC to Upper 90 FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.48 · 1st hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted |
Croatia Juniors 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +10 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–7 | 0.03 | 0.01 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 02:30 PM |
Upper 90 FC 8th · 2-0-4 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Gameday Sports |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.20 | 0.04 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
T3FC East 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Victory Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.11 | 0.05 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 PM |
Upper 90 FC 8th · 2-0-4 · GD -3 |
Home RNYFC Youth Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.33 | 0.08 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 09:00 AM |
Cleveland Force SC 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Victory Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
1–8 | 0.02 | 0.08 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
WNY Flash Rochester 6th · 2-1-3 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–4 | 0.17 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
WNY Flash 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–6 | 0.08 | 0.08 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Steel City FC 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD +8 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.12 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 7th · 2-1-3 · GD -6 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.48 | 0.12 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 10:00 AM |
Cleveland Force SC 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +13 |
Home Geneseo Central School District athletic complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–7 | 0.05 | 0.11 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 09:00 AM |
Croatia Juniors 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +10 |
Home RNYFC Youth Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–6 | 0.05 | 0.11 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
T3FC East 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.19 | 0.11 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Steel City FC 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD +8 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.12 | 0.11 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 09:00 AM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 7th · 2-1-3 · GD -6 |
Home RNYFC Youth Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.48 | 0.13 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Croatia Juniors | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | +0.12 | -0.31 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Cleveland Force SC · Mon Jan 1 vs Rochester NY FC · Sat Oct 24 at T3FC East See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Cleveland Force SC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | +0.04 | -0.27 | 99% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 13 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Mar 14 vs Rochester NY FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Steel City FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 10 | 1.67 | LWLWD | -0.20 | -0.39 | 84% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | WNY Flash | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 9 | 1.50 | LLWWW | -0.10 | -0.03 | 45% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Steel City FC · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Mar 14 at T3FC East See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | T3FC East | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 7 | 1.40 | LWDLW | +0.04 | +0.03 | 36% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Oct 25 vs Rochester NY FC · Sat Mar 13 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | WNY Flash Rochester | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 7 | 1.17 | WWLDL | -0.06 | +0.02 | 22% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Oct 25 at Steel City FC · Sat Mar 13 at T3FC East See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 | 1.17 | WLLWD | +0.05 | -0.26 | 7% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Steel City FC · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Rochester · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Upper 90 FC | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | LLLLW | +0.40 | -0.21 | 7% | 6.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rochester NY FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 6 at Rochester NY FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Rochester NY FC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 27 | -26 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.12 | +0.48 | 0% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Croatia Juniors · Sat Oct 24 at Upper 90 FC · Sun Oct 25 at T3FC East See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.