SWFL PREMIER FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU18/19 · 10 teams · Florida Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM
Festival Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.6 for, 2.0 against · 1.73 expected points)
| Season so far | SWFL PREMIER FC | Cape Coral SA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-2-2 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per game | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W D L W L | D L W D L |
| Biggest win | 4–1 vs AC Florida Tropical | 1–0 vs Doral Soccer Club |
| Worst loss | 1–5 vs Strikers Miami FC | 1–7 vs Strikers Miami FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.13 | -0.66 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.09 | +0.00 |
Already played this season: Sun Aug 30 1–1 vs Cape Coral SA (D)
Common opponents: Parkland Soccer Club — we 3–4; they 2–2. Wellington SC — we 3–2; they 0–1. Strikers Miami FC — we 1–5; they 1–7. Doral Soccer Club — we 2–2; they 1–0. AC Florida Tropical — we 4–1; they 3–3.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 51% / draw 18% / loss 30%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Festival Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Cape Coral SA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SWFL PREMIER FC – Cape Coral SA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.67 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 1.89 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.56 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 14%
- 3rd 29%
- 4th 41%
- 5th 12%
- 6th 3%
- 7th 1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strikers Miami FC | 3.00 (+1.25) | 1st (2.76) | 40 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Davie United SC | 2.00 (+0.25) | 2nd (1.90) | 22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
How the results connect
25 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link SWFL PREMIER FC to Cape Coral SA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.14 · 7th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 17 04:00 PM no score posted |
Athletic Club Florida 10th · 0-1-2 · GD -7 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
3–1 | 2.23 | 1.80 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
Cape Coral SA 6th · 1-3-2 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
Festival Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–2 | 1.73 | 1.80 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 01:00 PM |
Athletic Club Florida 10th · 0-1-2 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Mullins Park · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
3–1 | 1.93 | 1.81 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 01:30 PM |
AC Florida Tropical 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Amelia Earhart |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.70 | 1.80 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 03:00 PM |
Fort Lauderdale United FC 4th · 4-1-3 · GD +8 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–3 | 1.29 | 1.76 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 01:00 PM |
Davie United SC 2nd · 3-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.20 | 1.72 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 03:00 PM |
Wellington SC 8th · 1-1-3 · GD -8 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
3–1 | 2.17 | 1.75 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
Parkland Soccer Club 9th · 1-3-4 · GD -11 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.19 | 1.78 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Doral Soccer Club 5th · 2-1-3 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–2 | 1.51 | 1.76 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Strikers Miami FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +25 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.24 | 1.68 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strikers Miami FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 5 | +25 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.34 | -0.31 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 30 at Parkland Soccer Club · Sat Sep 12 at AC Florida Tropical · Sat Nov 7 vs Athletic Club Florida See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Davie United SC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 10 | 2.00 | DLWWW | -0.28 | -0.07 | 97% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Parkland Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida Tropical · Sat Feb 6 at Doral Soccer Club See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 14 | 1.75 | LWLDW | +0.09 | -0.14 | 84% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 at Cape Coral SA · Sat Feb 27 at Athletic Club Florida See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Fort Lauderdale United FC | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 13 | 1.63 | WWWLL | -0.02 | -0.15 | 91% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Cape Coral SA · Sat Feb 27 vs Wellington SC · Sun Feb 28 at Strikers Miami FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Doral Soccer Club | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 7 | 1.17 | LLDLW | +0.49 | -0.20 | 20% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at AC Florida Tropical · Sat Oct 17 at Parkland Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Wellington SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Cape Coral SA | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 | 1.00 | LDWLD | +0.00 | +0.07 | 3% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 vs SWFL PREMIER FC · Sun Nov 1 at Fort Lauderdale United FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | AC Florida Tropical | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 | 0.80 | LLWDL | -0.02 | +0.06 | 3% | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Strikers Miami FC · Sun Sep 13 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sat Oct 24 vs Wellington SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Wellington SC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 | 0.80 | WLLLD | +0.38 | -0.03 | 1% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AC Florida Tropical · Sun Nov 1 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sun Dec 6 vs Athletic Club Florida See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Parkland Soccer Club | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 6 | 0.75 | DLLDL | +0.04 | +0.16 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 30 vs Strikers Miami FC · Sat Oct 17 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sat Oct 24 at Davie United SC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Athletic Club Florida | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | 0.33 | DLL | +0.22 | +0.08 | 1% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at SWFL PREMIER FC · Sat Oct 24 at Cape Coral SA · Sat Nov 7 at Strikers Miami FC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.