AC Florida Tropical
ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU18/19 · 10 teams · Athletic Club Florida (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.6 against · 1.65 expected points)
| Season so far | AC Florida Tropical | Wellington SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-3 | 1-1-3 |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals for / game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 2.2 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L D W L L | D L L L W |
| Biggest win | 1–0 at Parkland Soccer Club | 1–0 vs Cape Coral SA |
| Worst loss | 1–4 at SWFL PREMIER FC | 1–6 vs Fort Lauderdale United FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.60 | -0.91 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.02 | +0.38 |
Common opponents: Fort Lauderdale United FC — we 1–2; they 1–6. Parkland Soccer Club — we 1–0; they 2–2. Cape Coral SA — we 3–3; they 1–0. SWFL PREMIER FC — we 1–4; they 2–3.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Davie United SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 22% / loss 31%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Cape Coral SA sit 6th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.80.A point moves us above Cape Coral SA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Wellington SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Florida Tropical – Wellington SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.83 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 9th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.17 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Draw 0.83 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 9th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
9th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 3%
- 5th 12%
- 6th 22%
- 7th 21%
- 8th 19%
- 9th 13%
- 10th 9%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.39 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strikers Miami FC | 3.00 (+2.20) | 1st (2.76) | 50 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Davie United SC | 2.00 (+1.20) | 2nd (1.90) | 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 3 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 1.75 (+0.95) | 4th (1.68) | 28 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 4 | Fort Lauderdale United FC | 1.63 (+0.83) | 3rd (1.74) | 26 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 5 | Doral Soccer Club | 1.17 (+0.37) | 5th (1.31) | 18 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 6 | Cape Coral SA | 1.00 (+0.20) | 6th (1.05) | A point next game |
How the results connect
20 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link AC Florida Tropical to Wellington SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.06 · 4th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 12 01:30 PM no score posted |
Strikers Miami FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +25 |
Home Tropical Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–3 | 0.27 | 0.71 | Upside |
| Sun Sep 13 01:30 PM no score posted |
Doral Soccer Club 5th · 2-1-3 · GD -4 |
Home Amelia Earhart |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.35 | 0.80 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 01:30 PM |
Wellington SC 8th · 1-1-3 · GD -8 |
Home Tropical Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.65 | 0.91 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 03:15 PM |
Davie United SC 2nd · 3-1-1 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Bamford Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.59 | 0.87 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 01:45 PM |
Parkland Soccer Club 9th · 1-3-4 · GD -11 |
Home Tropical Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.67 | 0.95 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 5 01:45 PM |
Athletic Club Florida 10th · 0-1-2 · GD -7 |
Home Tropical Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.71 | 1.02 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 01:30 PM |
Cape Coral SA 6th · 1-3-2 · GD -6 |
Home Amelia Earhart |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 1.06 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 01:30 PM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 3rd · 4-2-2 · GD +1 |
Home Amelia Earhart |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.11 | 1.07 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
Athletic Club Florida 10th · 0-1-2 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
North Community Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.43 | 1.09 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Strikers Miami FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +25 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–4 | 0.16 | 1.03 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 03:00 PM |
Fort Lauderdale United FC 4th · 4-1-3 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Miami Dolphins Training Facility @ NOVA Southeaste |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–3 | 0.63 | 1.01 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 06:00 PM |
Doral Soccer Club 5th · 2-1-3 · GD -4 |
Away Morgan Levy Park Doral |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.10 | 1.01 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 02:00 PM |
Wellington SC 8th · 1-1-3 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Village Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.37 | 1.03 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strikers Miami FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 5 | +25 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.34 | -0.31 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 30 at Parkland Soccer Club · Sat Sep 12 at AC Florida Tropical · Sat Nov 7 vs Athletic Club Florida See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Davie United SC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 10 | 2.00 | DLWWW | -0.28 | -0.07 | 96% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Parkland Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida Tropical · Sat Feb 6 at Doral Soccer Club See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 14 | 1.75 | LWLDW | +0.09 | -0.14 | 83% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 at Cape Coral SA · Sat Feb 27 at Athletic Club Florida See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Fort Lauderdale United FC | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 13 | 1.63 | WWWLL | -0.02 | -0.15 | 91% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Cape Coral SA · Sat Feb 27 vs Wellington SC · Sun Feb 28 at Strikers Miami FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Doral Soccer Club | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 7 | 1.17 | LLDLW | +0.49 | -0.20 | 21% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at AC Florida Tropical · Sat Oct 17 at Parkland Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Wellington SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Cape Coral SA | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 | 1.00 | LDWLD | +0.00 | +0.07 | 3% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 vs SWFL PREMIER FC · Sun Nov 1 at Fort Lauderdale United FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | AC Florida Tropical | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 | 0.80 | LLWDL | -0.02 | +0.06 | 4% | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Strikers Miami FC · Sun Sep 13 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sat Oct 24 vs Wellington SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Wellington SC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 | 0.80 | WLLLD | +0.38 | -0.03 | 1% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AC Florida Tropical · Sun Nov 1 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sun Dec 6 vs Athletic Club Florida See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Parkland Soccer Club | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 6 | 0.75 | DLLDL | +0.04 | +0.16 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 30 vs Strikers Miami FC · Sat Oct 17 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sat Oct 24 at Davie United SC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Athletic Club Florida | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | 0.33 | DLL | +0.22 | +0.08 | 1% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at SWFL PREMIER FC · Sat Oct 24 at Cape Coral SA · Sat Nov 7 at Strikers Miami FC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.19 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.