Sporting SA JAX
ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU18/19 · 10 teams · Sporting SA (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.7 for, 2.2 against · 0.53 expected points)
| Season so far | Sporting SA JAX | Sporting SA TLH |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-5-3 | 7-3-0 |
| Points per game | 0.89 | 2.40 |
| Goals for / game | 1.1 | 3.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D L L D W | D W W W W |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs South Orlando SC | 7–0 at Fishhawk Premier FC |
| Worst loss | 1–4 vs Florida Premier FC Gold | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.13 | +1.94 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.26 | -0.21 |
Common opponents: Florida Kraze Krush — we 0–0; they 1–1. Florida Premier FC Gold — we 1–4, 0–1; they 3–1, 1–1. Florida Premier FC BLACK — we 1–1, 0–0; they 0–0, 5–1. Space Coast United — we 2–2; they 6–1. South Orlando SC — we 4–0; they 5–0. Fishhawk Premier FC — we 2–2; they 7–0. Florida Celtic — we 0–1; they 2–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Sporting SA TLH score 3.3/game — well above the league's 1.8.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Sporting SA TLH concede only 0.7/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–0 at Florida Kraze Krush, 0–1 at Florida Celtic, 0–1 at Florida Premier FC Gold, 0–0 at Florida Premier FC BLACK.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 11%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting SA TLH game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting SA JAX – Sporting SA TLH) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.80 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.10 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Draw 0.90 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.80 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 3%
- 6th 15%
- 7th 34%
- 8th 44%
- 9th 3%
- 10th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.94 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting SA TLH | 2.40 (+1.51) | 1st (2.42) | 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Florida Celtic | 2.13 (+1.24) | 2nd (2.16) | 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Florida Premier FC Gold | 1.67 (+0.78) | 3rd (1.69) | 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 4 | FC America | 1.57 (+0.68) | 4th (1.65) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 5 | Florida Kraze Krush | 1.38 (+0.49) | 5th (1.59) | 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 6 | Florida Premier FC BLACK | 1.25 (+0.36) | 6th (1.31) | 15 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 7 | Space Coast United | 1.11 (+0.22) | 7th (1.09) | 12 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
How the results connect
69 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Sporting SA JAX to Sporting SA TLH through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.21 · 2nd hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
Sporting SA TLH 1st · 7-3-0 · GD +26 |
Home Veterans Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–2 | 0.53 | 0.85 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 01:00 PM |
Sporting SA TLH 1st · 7-3-0 · GD +26 |
Away far trip
Florida State University Rec Sportsplex |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
0–2 | 0.39 | 0.81 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 03:00 PM |
Florida Celtic 2nd · 5-2-1 · GD +17 |
Home Clay County Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
0–1 | 0.69 | 0.80 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 01:00 PM |
Fishhawk Premier FC 9th · 0-3-5 · GD -20 |
Home Clay County Regional Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–0 | 2.18 | 0.91 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 02:00 PM |
FC America 4th · 3-2-2 · GD +2 |
Home Veterans Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 02:00 PM |
Florida Kraze Krush 5th · 3-2-3 · GD +8 |
Home Veterans Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–1 | 1.05 | 0.94 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 10:00 AM |
South Orlando SC 10th · 0-1-5 · GD -24 |
Away far trip
Young Pine Community Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.24 | 1.02 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 PM |
Space Coast United 7th · 3-1-5 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
SCU - Viera Regional Park Soccer Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.48 | 1.05 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 02:00 PM |
FC America 4th · 3-2-2 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
SoFive Soccer Center - Winter Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–1 | 1.01 | 1.04 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Sporting SA TLH | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 7 | +26 | 24 | 2.40 | WWWWD | -0.21 | -0.33 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting SA JAX · Sun Nov 1 vs FC America · Sat Feb 27 vs Florida Kraze Krush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Florida Celtic | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 17 | 2.13 | WLWWD | -0.21 | -0.14 | 99% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fishhawk Premier FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC BLACK See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Florida Premier FC Gold | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 15 | 1.67 | DLWWD | +0.28 | -0.41 | 72% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Space Coast United · Sun Oct 25 at South Orlando SC · Sat Oct 31 at Florida Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC America | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 11 | 1.57 | DLWWD | +0.22 | -0.31 | 64% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at South Orlando SC · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 21 vs Florida Kraze Krush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Florida Kraze Krush | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 11 | 1.38 | WLWLW | -0.16 | -0.13 | 55% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Florida Premier FC BLACK · Sun Feb 21 at FC America · Sat Feb 27 at Sporting SA TLH See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Florida Premier FC BLACK | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 10 | 1.25 | DWLLD | +0.66 | -0.54 | 8% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Oct 24 at South Orlando SC · Sun Oct 25 at Space Coast United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Space Coast United | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 10 | 1.11 | DLWLW | -0.01 | +0.02 | 1% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC BLACK · Sun Feb 28 vs South Orlando SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Sporting SA JAX | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 | 0.89 | WDLLD | -0.26 | +0.21 | 1% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 28 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs Florida Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Fishhawk Premier FC | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 28 | -20 | 3 | 0.38 | LDLLL | +0.23 | +0.10 | 0% | 9.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC BLACK · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | South Orlando SC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 30 | -24 | 1 | 0.17 | DLLLL | +0.26 | +0.21 | 0% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs FC America · Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Premier FC BLACK · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC Gold See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.