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Florida Premier FC BLACK

ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU18/19 · 10 teams · Florida Premier FC (all teams)

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6th
2-4-2 record · 8 played
1.25 points per game
-4 goal diff · 5–9
DWLLDlast 5
9% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.0
+0.66 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM

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Florida Premier FC BLACK
6th · 1.25 PPG
at
South Orlando SC
10th · 0.17 PPG

Young Pine Community Park, Field 3 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.0 against · 2.07 expected points)

Season so farFlorida Premier FC BLACKSouth Orlando SC
Position6th10th
Record (W-D-L)2-4-20-1-5
Points per game1.250.17
Goals for / game0.61.0
Goals against / game1.15.0
Clean sheets50
Held scoreless33
Form (recent first)D L L W DL L L L D
Biggest win1–0 vs Space Coast United—
Worst loss1–5 vs Sporting SA TLH1–8 vs Florida Celtic
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.27-2.51
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.66+0.26

Common opponents: Space Coast United — we 1–0; they 1–2. Florida Celtic — we 0–0; they 1–8. Sporting SA TLH — we 0–0, 1–5; they 0–5. Sporting SA JAX — we 1–1, 0–0; they 0–4.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    South Orlando SC concede 5.0/game; worst result 1–8 vs Florida Celtic.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–0 vs Florida Celtic, 0–0 at Sporting SA TLH, 0–0 vs Sporting SA JAX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 62% / draw 20% / loss 18%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    South Orlando SC have lost 4 straight (form: DLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at Young Pine Community Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Florida Kraze Krush sit 5th on 1.38 PPG; we are on 1.25.

    A point moves us above Florida Kraze Krush on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the South Orlando SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Florida Premier FC BLACK – South Orlando SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.44 PPG		 5th▲ up 1 5th▲ up 1 5th▲ up 1
Win
1.44 PPG		 5th▲ up 1 5th▲ up 1 5th▲ up 1
Draw
1.22 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1
Loss
1.11 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
9% top 4
91% below the top 4
6.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 7%
  5. 5th 16%
  6. 6th 47%
  7. 7th 21%
  8. 8th 8%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.22 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sporting SA TLH 2.40 (+1.15) 1st (2.42) 34 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Florida Celtic 2.13 (+0.88) 2nd (2.16) 29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 Florida Premier FC Gold 1.67 (+0.42) 3rd (1.69) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
4 FC America 1.57 (+0.32) 4th (1.65) 19 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
5 Florida Kraze Krush 1.38 (+0.13) 5th (1.59) A point next game

How the results connect

44 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Florida Premier FC BLACK to South Orlando SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

41 favour us
2 even
1 favour them
+4.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–5 5–0 1–0 2–1 0–0 4–0 1–1 0–0 0–0 8–1 2–2 4–4 2–2 1–3 1–3 1–6 Florida Premier FC … 6th Sporting SA TLH 1st Space Coast United 7th Sporting SA JAX 8th Florida Celtic 2nd Florida Premier FC … 3rd Fishhawk Premier FC 9th South Orlando SC 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 5th 10th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.54 · 10th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 19
03:00 PM
no score posted		 Florida Kraze Krush
5th · 3-2-3 · GD +8		 Home
Starkey Ranch District Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 0–1 0.96 1.22 Upside
Sat Oct 24
10:00 AM		 South Orlando SC
10th · 0-1-5 · GD -24		 Away far trip
Young Pine Community Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 2–1 2.07 1.30 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 Space Coast United
7th · 3-1-5 · GD -8		 Away far trip
SCU - Viera Regional Park Soccer Fields		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 1–1 1.35 1.31 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM		 Fishhawk Premier FC
9th · 0-3-5 · GD -20		 Away
Fishhawk Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 1–0 1.79 1.35 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 Florida Celtic
2nd · 5-2-1 · GD +17		 Away far trip
Belcher Road Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–1 0.49 1.28 Upside
Sun Feb 28
12:00 PM		 Florida Premier FC Gold
3rd · 4-3-2 · GD +4		 Away
Starkey Ranch District Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 0–1 0.88 1.25 Upside
Sat Mar 13
11:30 AM		 Florida Kraze Krush
5th · 3-2-3 · GD +8		 Away far trip
Shane Kelly Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 0–1 0.77 1.22 Upside
Sun Mar 14
05:30 PM		 FC America
4th · 3-2-2 · GD +2		 Away far trip
SoFive Soccer Center - Winter Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 0–1 0.91 1.20 Upside
Sat Apr 3
10:00 AM		 Fishhawk Premier FC
9th · 0-3-5 · GD -20		 Home
Starkey Ranch District Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 1–0 2.01 1.25 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
11:00 AM		 South Orlando SC
10th · 0-1-5 · GD -24		 Home
Starkey Ranch District Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–0 2.28 1.31 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sporting SA TLH 10730 337+26 242.40 WWWWD -0.21 -0.33 100% 1.2
2 Florida Celtic 8521 236+17 172.13 WLWWD -0.21 -0.14 100% 2.0
3 Florida Premier FC Gold 9432 1713+4 151.67 DLWWD +0.28 -0.41 73% 3.9
4 FC America 7322 1412+2 111.57 DLWWD +0.22 -0.31 63% 4.1
5 Florida Kraze Krush 8323 1810+8 111.38 WLWLW -0.16 -0.13 54% 4.4
6 Florida Premier FC BLACK 8242 59-4 101.25 DWLLD +0.66 -0.54 9% 6.0
7 Space Coast United 9315 1220-8 101.11 DLWLW -0.01 +0.02 1% 7.2
8 Sporting SA JAX 9153 1011-1 80.89 WDLLD -0.26 +0.21 1% 7.3
9 Fishhawk Premier FC 8035 828-20 30.38 LDLLL +0.23 +0.10 0% 9.1
10 South Orlando SC 6015 630-24 10.17 DLLLL +0.26 +0.21 0% 9.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.