Sporting SA JAX
ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU17 · 10 teams · Sporting SA (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 03:00 PM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.7 for, 1.0 against · 2.34 expected points)
| Season so far | Sporting SA JAX | Sporting SA TLH |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-4-1 | 2-0-8 |
| Points per game | 1.78 | 0.60 |
| Goals for / game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | D L W W W | L L L L W |
| Biggest win | 5–2 at Fishhawk Premier FC | 5–1 vs Space Coast United |
| Worst loss | 0–4 at Florida Premier FC Gold | 1–6 vs Florida Premier FC Gold |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.49 | -1.02 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.28 | +0.37 |
Common opponents: FC America — we 3–1; they 1–3. Florida Kraze Krush — we 0–0; they 2–1. Florida Premier FC Gold — we 2–2, 0–4; they 1–6, 0–5. Florida Premier FC Black — we 0–0, 1–1; they 1–2, 0–2. Space Coast United — we 3–1; they 5–1. Fishhawk Premier FC — we 5–2; they 0–2. Florida Celtic — we 3–1; they 0–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–0 at Florida Kraze Krush, 0–0 vs Florida Premier FC Black, 0–4 at Florida Premier FC Gold.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 73% chance; likely score 2–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Sporting SA TLH have lost 4 straight (form: WLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting SA TLH game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting SA JAX – Sporting SA TLH) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.90 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.90 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.70 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.60 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd 22%
- 4th 58%
- 5th 12%
- 6th 2%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.39 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Orlando SC | 2.67 (+0.89) | 3rd (2.13) | 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 2 | Florida Premier FC Black | 2.50 (+0.72) | 2nd (2.15) | 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 3 | Florida Premier FC Gold | 2.44 (+0.66) | 1st (2.35) | 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
How the results connect
74 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Sporting SA JAX to Sporting SA TLH through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.31 · 10th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 03:00 PM |
Sporting SA TLH 9th · 2-0-8 · GD -15 |
Home Veterans Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–1 | 2.34 | 1.83 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 28 03:00 PM |
Sporting SA TLH 9th · 2-0-8 · GD -15 |
Away far trip
Florida State University Rec Sportsplex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.12 | 1.86 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
Florida Celtic 7th · 2-1-5 · GD -7 |
Home Clay County Regional Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.18 | 1.89 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 11:00 AM |
Fishhawk Premier FC 5th · 4-0-4 · GD +1 |
Home Clay County Regional Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
1–1 | 1.73 | 1.87 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 10:00 AM |
FC America 8th · 2-1-6 · GD -12 |
Home Veterans Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.31 | 1.91 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 PM |
Florida Kraze Krush 6th · 3-2-4 · GD +3 |
Home Veterans Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.64 | 1.89 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 02:00 PM |
South Orlando SC 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +14 |
Away far trip
Young Pine Community Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.90 | 1.83 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 10:00 AM |
Space Coast United 10th · 1-0-7 · GD -23 |
Away far trip
SCU - Viera Regional Park Soccer Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–0 | 2.51 | 1.87 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 02:00 PM |
South Orlando SC 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +14 |
Home Veterans Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.16 | 1.83 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Orlando SC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWDW | -0.74 | +0.18 | 98% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Feb 28 at Space Coast United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Florida Premier FC Black | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 20 | 2.50 | WWWWD | -0.05 | -0.08 | 99% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Orlando SC · Sun Oct 25 at Space Coast United · Sat Oct 31 at Fishhawk Premier FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Florida Premier FC Gold | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 22 | 2.44 | WWLWW | -0.28 | -0.06 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Space Coast United · Sun Oct 25 at South Orlando SC · Sat Oct 31 at Florida Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Sporting SA JAX | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 16 | 1.78 | WWWLD | +0.28 | -0.31 | 85% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 28 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs Florida Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Fishhawk Premier FC | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 12 | 1.50 | LLWWW | -0.14 | +0.09 | 12% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Florida Kraze Krush | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 11 | 1.22 | LWDWL | -0.01 | -0.01 | 6% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Feb 21 at FC America · Sat Feb 27 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs South Orlando SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Florida Celtic | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 7 | 0.88 | WWLLD | -0.15 | +0.26 | 0% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fishhawk Premier FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC Black See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | FC America | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 7 | 0.78 | LLWLD | +0.11 | +0.12 | 0% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 21 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Mar 6 vs Space Coast United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Sporting SA TLH | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 27 | -15 | 6 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.37 | -0.13 | 0% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting SA JAX · Sun Nov 1 vs FC America · Sat Feb 27 vs Florida Kraze Krush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Space Coast United | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 30 | -23 | 3 | 0.38 | LLLLL | +0.16 | +0.30 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sat Feb 27 at Florida Premier FC Black See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.