South Orlando SC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU17 · 10 teams · South Orlando SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM
Young Pine Community Park, Field 2 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.5 against · 1.64 expected points)
| Season so far | South Orlando SC | Florida Premier FC Black |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-1-0 | 6-2-0 |
| Points per game | 2.67 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / game | 3.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W W W | D W W W W |
| Biggest win | 6–0 vs Space Coast United | 4–1 vs FC America |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.24 | +0.86 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.74 | -0.05 |
Common opponents: Florida Celtic — we 4–1; they 5–3. Sporting SA TLH — we 4–2; they 2–1, 2–0. FC America — we 3–1; they 4–1. Florida Kraze Krush — we 1–1; they 2–1.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 22% / loss 30%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Florida Premier FC Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (South Orlando SC – Florida Premier FC Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 2.43 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.71 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.43 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.29 PPG |
3rd▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 19%
- 2nd 33%
- 3rd 33%
- 4th 14%
- 5th 1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
46 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link South Orlando SC to Florida Premier FC Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.18 · 3rd hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM |
Florida Premier FC Black 2nd · 6-2-0 · GD +10 |
Home Young Pine Community Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.64 | 2.52 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Florida Premier FC Gold 3rd · 7-1-1 · GD +24 |
Home Young Pine Community Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.16 | 2.35 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 10:00 AM |
Space Coast United 10th · 1-0-7 · GD -23 |
Away far trip
SCU - Viera Regional Park Soccer Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–0 | 2.77 | 2.40 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 11:00 AM |
Florida Kraze Krush 6th · 3-2-4 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Central Winds |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.77 | 2.33 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 12:30 PM |
FC America 8th · 2-1-6 · GD -12 |
Away SoFive Soccer Center - Winter Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.44 | 2.34 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 03:00 PM |
Florida Celtic 7th · 2-1-5 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Belcher Road Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
3–1 | 2.32 | 2.34 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 01:00 PM |
Fishhawk Premier FC 5th · 4-0-4 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Fishhawk Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 2.30 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 01:00 PM |
Florida Premier FC Gold 3rd · 7-1-1 · GD +24 |
Away far trip
Wiregrass Ranch Sports Campus · grass |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.90 | 2.20 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 03:00 PM |
Florida Premier FC Black 2nd · 6-2-0 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.37 | 2.15 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 02:00 PM |
Sporting SA JAX 4th · 4-4-1 · GD +5 |
Home Young Pine Community Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.90 | 2.13 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 01:30 PM |
Sporting SA TLH 9th · 2-0-8 · GD -15 |
Home Young Pine Community Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–0 | 2.65 | 2.16 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 02:00 PM |
Sporting SA JAX 4th · 4-4-1 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Veterans Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.63 | 2.13 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Orlando SC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWDW | -0.74 | +0.18 | 99% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Feb 28 at Space Coast United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Florida Premier FC Black | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 20 | 2.50 | WWWWD | -0.05 | -0.08 | 99% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Orlando SC · Sun Oct 25 at Space Coast United · Sat Oct 31 at Fishhawk Premier FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Florida Premier FC Gold | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 22 | 2.44 | WWLWW | -0.28 | -0.06 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Space Coast United · Sun Oct 25 at South Orlando SC · Sat Oct 31 at Florida Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Sporting SA JAX | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 16 | 1.78 | WWWLD | +0.28 | -0.31 | 85% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 28 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs Florida Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Fishhawk Premier FC | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 12 | 1.50 | LLWWW | -0.14 | +0.09 | 11% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Florida Kraze Krush | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 11 | 1.22 | LWDWL | -0.01 | -0.01 | 6% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Feb 21 at FC America · Sat Feb 27 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs South Orlando SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Florida Celtic | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 7 | 0.88 | WWLLD | -0.15 | +0.26 | 0% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fishhawk Premier FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC Black See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | FC America | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 7 | 0.78 | LLWLD | +0.11 | +0.12 | 0% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 21 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Mar 6 vs Space Coast United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Sporting SA TLH | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 27 | -15 | 6 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.37 | -0.13 | 0% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting SA JAX · Sun Nov 1 vs FC America · Sat Feb 27 vs Florida Kraze Krush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Space Coast United | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 30 | -23 | 3 | 0.38 | LLLLL | +0.16 | +0.30 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sat Feb 27 at Florida Premier FC Black See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.