Florida Premier FC Gold

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SCU - Viera Regional Park Soccer Fields, Field 3 ↗ far trip

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.8 for, 0.7 against · 2.87 expected points)

Already played this season: Sun Aug 30 5–0 vs Space Coast United (W)

Common opponents: Fishhawk Premier FC — we 2–0; they 1–4. Sporting SA JAX — we 2–2, 4–0; they 1–3. Sporting SA TLH — we 6–1, 5–0; they 1–5. FC America — we 4–2; they 0–1. Florida Kraze Krush — we 2–0; they 1–4.

• They struggle to score
  Space Coast United average 0.9 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 3 of 8.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Space Coast United concede 3.8/game; worst result 0–6 at South Orlando SC.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 95% chance; likely score 4–0.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  Space Coast United have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Away game
  Kickoff 10:00 AM at SCU - Viera Regional Park Soccer Fields.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Florida Premier FC Black sit 2nd on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.44.

  A win moves us above Florida Premier FC Black on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Space Coast United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Florida Premier FC Gold – Space Coast United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

1. 1st 66%
2. 2nd 25%
3. 3rd 8%
4. 4th 1%
5. 5th <1%
6. 6th
7. 7th
8. 8th
9. 9th
10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.72 PPG if we win out).