Cape Coral SA
ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU15 · 10 teams · Cape Coral Soccer (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.9 for, 1.1 against · 2.67 expected points)
| Season so far | Cape Coral SA | Athletic Club Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-3 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per game | 1.43 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 4.7 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W L D W W | L L L D L |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs Doral Soccer Club | — |
| Worst loss | 1–4 at Davie United SC | 0–9 at Wellington SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.28 | -2.22 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.24 | +0.45 |
Common opponents: SWFL PREMIER FC — we 2–3; they 0–2. Wellington SC — we 2–4; they 0–9. Parkland Soccer Club — we 3–0; they 3–3. Strikers Miami FC — we 1–1; they 1–3. Davie United SC — we 1–4; they 1–6.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Athletic Club Florida average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 3 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Athletic Club Florida concede 4.7/game; worst result 0–9 at Wellington SC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 86% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Athletic Club Florida have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
SWFL PREMIER FC sit 5th on 1.56 PPG; we are on 1.43.A point moves us above SWFL PREMIER FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Athletic Club Florida game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Cape Coral SA – Athletic Club Florida) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.63 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 |
| Win 1.63 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.38 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 1.25 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 3%
- 4th 33%
- 5th 28%
- 6th 23%
- 7th 13%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.39 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davie United SC | 2.67 (+1.24) | 1st (2.29) | 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 2 | Strikers Miami FC | 2.50 (+1.07) | 2nd (2.24) | 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 3 | Wellington SC | 2.29 (+0.86) | 3rd (2.15) | 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 4 | Doral Soccer Club | 1.60 (+0.17) | 4th (1.58) | A point next game |
| 5 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 1.56 (+0.13) | 7th (1.38) | A point next game |
How the results connect
35 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Cape Coral SA to Athletic Club Florida through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.19 · 10th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Athletic Club Florida 10th · 0-1-5 · GD -23 |
Home Festival Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–1 | 2.67 | 1.58 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 5th · 4-2-3 · GD -4 |
Home Festival Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.90 | 1.62 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
Fort Lauderdale United FC 7th · 3-1-4 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Wolf Field at U School |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–2 | 1.19 | 1.58 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 10:00 AM |
AC Florida Tropical 8th · 1-1-6 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
Amelia Earhart |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 2.00 | 1.61 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 11:00 AM |
Athletic Club Florida 10th · 0-1-5 · GD -23 |
Away far trip
Mullins Park · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.49 | 1.69 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 11:00 AM |
Davie United SC 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +16 |
Home Pelican Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.84 | 1.62 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 03:00 PM |
Fort Lauderdale United FC 7th · 3-1-4 · GD +5 |
Home Cape Coral Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–1 | 1.48 | 1.61 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 03:00 PM |
Parkland Soccer Club 9th · 0-2-6 · GD -21 |
Home Cape Coral Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–0 | 2.58 | 1.68 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
Wellington SC 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +20 |
Home Cape Coral Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.88 | 1.63 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Strikers Miami FC 2nd · 6-2-0 · GD +16 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–2 | 0.66 | 1.57 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 03:00 PM |
Doral Soccer Club 4th · 2-2-1 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Morgan Levy Park Doral |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.28 | 1.55 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davie United SC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 5 | +16 | 16 | 2.67 | WWDWW | -0.48 | -0.03 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Parkland Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida Tropical · Sat Feb 6 at Doral Soccer Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Strikers Miami FC | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 20 | 2.50 | WDWDW | -0.52 | +0.24 | 100% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 22 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sun Feb 7 at Davie United SC · Sun Feb 28 vs Fort Lauderdale United FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Wellington SC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 9 | +20 | 16 | 2.29 | WWLWD | -0.47 | +0.01 | 99% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sun Feb 7 at Doral Soccer Club · Sat Feb 20 at Davie United SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Doral Soccer Club | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 | 1.60 | WDLDW | +0.21 | -0.10 | 38% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Parkland Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Wellington SC · Sun Nov 22 at Strikers Miami FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 14 | 1.56 | LLDWW | -0.02 | +0.04 | 10% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Cape Coral SA · Sat Feb 27 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Feb 28 at AC Florida Tropical See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Cape Coral SA | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 10 | 1.43 | WWDLW | +0.24 | -0.19 | 36% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 vs SWFL PREMIER FC · Sun Nov 1 at Fort Lauderdale United FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Fort Lauderdale United FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 10 | 1.25 | WLWDL | -0.09 | -0.01 | 18% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Cape Coral SA · Sat Feb 27 vs Wellington SC · Sun Feb 28 at Strikers Miami FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | AC Florida Tropical | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 4 | 0.50 | LWLLD | +0.40 | -0.12 | 0% | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Davie United SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Parkland Soccer Club · Sat Dec 5 vs Athletic Club Florida See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Parkland Soccer Club | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 26 | -21 | 2 | 0.25 | LLLLL | +0.20 | +0.24 | 0% | 9.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sat Oct 24 at Davie United SC · Sun Nov 1 at AC Florida Tropical See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Athletic Club Florida | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 28 | -23 | 1 | 0.17 | LDLLL | +0.45 | +0.15 | 0% | 9.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cape Coral SA · Sat Dec 5 at AC Florida Tropical · Sat Feb 20 at Doral Soccer Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.92 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.