Florida Premier FC BLACK
ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU13 · 10 teams · Florida Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
Young Pine Community Park, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.8 for, 3.2 against · 0.75 expected points)
| Season so far | Florida Premier FC BLACK | South Orlando SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-5 | 3-2-2 |
| Points per game | 1.11 | 1.57 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 4.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L L D | W W W D L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs Sporting SA JAX | 8–0 vs Florida Kraze Krush |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at Florida Premier FC Gold | 1–4 at Sporting SA JAX |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.12 | +1.02 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | -0.45 |
Common opponents: Space Coast United — we 5–1; they 6–0. Florida Celtic — we 3–1; they 2–4. Sporting SA TLH — we 0–2, 0–2; they 3–3. Sporting SA JAX — we 1–2, 5–0; they 1–4. Florida Kraze Krush — we 0–0; they 8–0. FC America — we 1–3; they 3–3.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
South Orlando SC score 4.0/game — well above the league's 2.2.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–2 at Sporting SA TLH, 0–0 vs Florida Kraze Krush, 0–5 at Florida Premier FC Gold, 0–2 vs Sporting SA TLH.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 20%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
South Orlando SC have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Young Pine Community Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Sporting SA JAX sit 7th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.11.A point moves us above Sporting SA JAX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the South Orlando SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Florida Premier FC BLACK – South Orlando SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.30 PPG |
5th▲ up 3 | 4th▲ up 4 | 7th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.10 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 3%
- 5th 8%
- 6th 18%
- 7th 28%
- 8th 30%
- 9th 11%
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.06 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida Premier FC Gold | 2.67 (+1.56) | 1st (2.47) | 39 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Sporting SA TLH | 2.50 (+1.39) | 2nd (2.33) | 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Florida Celtic | 1.88 (+0.77) | 3rd (1.72) | 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 4 | South Orlando SC | 1.57 (+0.46) | 4th (1.67) | 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 5 | FC America | 1.25 (+0.14) | 5th (1.47) | A point next game |
| 6 | Fishhawk Premier FC | 1.25 (+0.14) | 6th (1.37) | A point next game |
| 7 | Sporting SA JAX | 1.20 (+0.09) | 7th (1.18) | A point next game |
How the results connect
58 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Florida Premier FC BLACK to South Orlando SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.10 · 4th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
South Orlando SC 4th · 3-2-2 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Young Pine Community Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–3 | 0.75 | 1.08 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
Space Coast United 10th · 0-0-9 · GD -40 |
Away far trip
SCU - Viera Regional Park Soccer Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–0 | 2.58 | 1.21 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
Fishhawk Premier FC 6th · 3-1-4 · GD +0 |
Away Fishhawk Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.16 | 1.21 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
Florida Celtic 3rd · 5-0-3 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Belcher Road Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.92 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 10:00 AM |
Florida Premier FC Gold 1st · 8-0-1 · GD +25 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.60 | 1.14 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 09:30 AM |
Florida Kraze Krush 9th · 2-2-4 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Shane Kelly Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
1–1 | 1.72 | 1.18 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 02:15 PM |
FC America 5th · 3-1-4 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
SoFive Soccer Center - Winter Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.99 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 10:00 AM |
Fishhawk Premier FC 6th · 3-1-4 · GD +0 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
South Orlando SC 4th · 3-2-2 · GD +12 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
2–2 | 1.03 | 1.18 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Florida Premier FC Gold | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 9 | +25 | 24 | 2.67 | WWWWW | -0.28 | -0.07 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Space Coast United · Sun Oct 25 at South Orlando SC · Sat Oct 31 at Florida Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Sporting SA TLH | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 25 | 2.50 | WWWWL | +0.18 | -0.40 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC America · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting SA JAX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Florida Celtic | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 15 | 1.88 | WLWWL | -0.28 | +0.14 | 75% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fishhawk Premier FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC BLACK See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | South Orlando SC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 11 | 1.57 | LDWWW | -0.45 | +0.08 | 71% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Premier FC BLACK · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Feb 28 at Space Coast United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC America | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 10 | 1.25 | WDWLW | +0.07 | -0.13 | 30% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting SA TLH · Sun Nov 1 at Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Feb 21 vs Florida Kraze Krush See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Fishhawk Premier FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 15 | +0 | 10 | 1.25 | LLWWD | -0.05 | -0.01 | 16% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC BLACK · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Sporting SA JAX | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 12 | 1.20 | WLLLL | +0.18 | -0.02 | 3% | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 28 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs Florida Celtic See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Florida Premier FC BLACK | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 10 | 1.11 | DLLLW | +0.00 | +0.10 | 4% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Orlando SC · Sun Oct 25 at Space Coast United · Sat Oct 31 at Fishhawk Premier FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Florida Kraze Krush | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 8 | 1.00 | LWLLD | +0.07 | +0.15 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sporting SA TLH · Sun Nov 1 vs FC America · Sun Feb 21 at FC America See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Space Coast United | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 43 | -40 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.34 | +0.35 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC BLACK · Sun Feb 28 vs South Orlando SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.