United Futbol Academy

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Fowler Park, Field 6 ↗

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.9 for, 1.2 against · 1.17 expected points)

Common opponents: Sporting SA JAX — we 1–2; they 1–3. Jacksonville FC — we 0–2; they 0–2. Tampa Bay United — we 0–1; they 1–1. Florida Premier FC — we 0–4; they 1–2. Florida Kraze Krush — we 0–2; they 0–3. Seminole United — we 1–0; they 0–2. Athletic Club Florida — we 0–8; they 0–6. Team Boca — we 0–1; they 1–4.

• They struggle to score
  South Carolina United average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 4 of 9.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  South Carolina United concede 2.7/game; worst result 0–6 vs Athletic Club Florida.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 7 time(s): 0–2 vs Jacksonville FC, 0–1 vs Tampa Bay United, 0–4 vs Florida Premier FC, 0–2 at Florida Kraze Krush, 0–8 at Athletic Club Florida, 0–1 at Team Boca, 0–3 vs CESA Liberty.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 29%; a draw (30%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  Seminole United sit 14th on 0.60 PPG; we are on 0.33.

  A win moves us above Seminole United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the South Carolina United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (United Futbol Academy – South Carolina United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we fall to at least 16th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th
6. 6th
7. 7th
8. 8th
9. 9th
10. 10th
11. 11th
12. 12th <1%
13. 13th <1%
14. 14th 5%
15. 15th 43%
16. 16th 52%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 1.40 PPG if we win out).