CESA Liberty

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Fowler Park, Field 7 ↗ far trip

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.4 for, 0.6 against · 2.44 expected points)

Common opponents: Team Boca — we 0–2; they 0–1. Athletic Club Florida — we 5–2; they 0–8. Florida Kraze Krush — we 0–1; they 0–2. Seminole United — we 3–0; they 1–0. Sporting SA JAX — we 2–4; they 1–2. Jacksonville FC — we 4–2; they 0–2. Florida Premier FC — we 1–0; they 0–4. Tampa Bay United — we 0–1; they 0–1.

• They struggle to score
  United Futbol Academy average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 6 of 8.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  United Futbol Academy concede 2.5/game; worst result 0–8 at Athletic Club Florida.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 vs Team Boca, 0–1 vs Florida Kraze Krush, 0–1 at Tampa Bay United.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 76% chance; likely score 2–0.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Away game
  Kickoff 11:00 AM at Fowler Park.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Athletic Club Florida sit 9th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.

  A point moves us above Athletic Club Florida on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the United Futbol Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CESA Liberty – United Futbol Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd <1%
3. 3rd 2%
4. 4th 4%
5. 5th 8%
6. 6th 11%
7. 7th 13%
8. 8th 16%
9. 9th 20%
10. 10th 15%
11. 11th 8%
12. 12th 4%
13. 13th <1%
14. 14th
15. 15th
16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).