Sporting SA JAX

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Veterans Park, Field 1 ↗

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.8 for, 0.7 against · 2.53 expected points)

Common opponents: United Futbol Academy — we 2–0; they 1–1. Atlanta Fire United — we 4–1; they 0–0. Concorde Fire Platinum — we 0–6; they 0–8. GSA — we 0–3; they 1–2. CESA Liberty — we 1–1; they 0–2. South Carolina United — we 0–2; they 0–6. Concorde Fire Premier — we 2–0; they 1–6. Alabama FC — we 1–0; they 1–0.

• They struggle to score
  Tampa Bay United average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 4 of 8.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Tampa Bay United concede 3.1/game; worst result 0–8 at Concorde Fire Platinum.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–6 at Concorde Fire Platinum, 0–3 at GSA, 0–2 vs South Carolina United.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 80% chance; likely score 2–0.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• What a win does
  GSA sit 6th on 1.88 PPG; we are on 1.78.

  A point moves us above GSA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Tampa Bay United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting SA JAX – Tampa Bay United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 14 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd <1%
4. 4th 3%
5. 5th 11%
6. 6th 22%
7. 7th 27%
8. 8th 20%
9. 9th 15%
10. 10th 1%
11. 11th <1%
12. 12th
13. 13th
14. 14th
15. 15th
16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).