Ohio Premier
ECNL Girls · Ohio Valley GU18/19 · 12 teams · Ohio Premier (all teams)
Next game — Sat Dec 12, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | Ohio Premier | GTFC Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
GTFC Impact average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Ohio Elite SA sit 7th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Ohio Elite SA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the GTFC Impact game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Premier – GTFC Impact) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Dec 7 – Sun Dec 13); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 6 | 5th▲ up 3 | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 7 | 1st▲ up 7 | 4th▲ up 4 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 6 | 9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
12th▼ down 4 | 12th▼ down 4 | 12th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 9%
- 2nd 9%
- 3rd 8%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 10%
- 6th 8%
- 7th 8%
- 8th 8%
- 9th 8%
- 10th 8%
- 11th 8%
- 12th 8%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Force SC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 8th (1.39) | Already ahead |
| 2 | FC Alliance TN | 0.00 (+0.00) | 12th (1.36) | Already ahead |
| 3 | FC Pride Elite | 0.00 (+0.00) | 7th (1.39) | Already ahead |
| 4 | GTFC Impact | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.42) | Already ahead |
| 5 | Indy Eleven | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.42) | Already ahead |
| 6 | Internationals SC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 9th (1.39) | Already ahead |
| 7 | Ohio Elite SA | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.42) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 8th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
GTFC Impact 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
FC Alliance TN 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Tennessee SC 11th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
FC Pride Elite 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Indy Eleven 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Internationals SC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Cleveland Force SC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Ohio Elite SA 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.45 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Racing Louisville Academy 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
WNY Flash 12th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.42 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Cleveland Force SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at Internationals SC · Sat Feb 27 at Tennessee SC · Sun Feb 28 at FC Alliance TN See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Alliance TN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at WNY Flash · Sun Nov 22 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Dec 12 at Tennessee SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Pride Elite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Indy Eleven · Sun Dec 13 at Racing Louisville Academy · Sat Dec 19 vs Ohio Elite SA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | GTFC Impact | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 13 at Tennessee SC · Sun Mar 14 at FC Alliance TN See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Indy Eleven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs FC Pride Elite · Sat Feb 13 at Ohio Elite SA · Sat Mar 20 at GTFC Impact See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Internationals SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sat Feb 27 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Feb 28 at Tennessee SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Ohio Elite SA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Racing Louisville Academy · Sat Dec 19 at FC Pride Elite · Sat Feb 13 vs Indy Eleven See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Ohio Premier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs GTFC Impact · Sat Mar 13 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Mar 14 at Tennessee SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Tennessee SC · Sun Nov 22 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Dec 13 vs WNY Flash See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Racing Louisville Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at Ohio Elite SA · Sun Dec 13 vs FC Pride Elite · Sat Mar 6 vs FC Alliance TN See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Tennessee SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Nov 22 at WNY Flash · Sat Dec 12 vs FC Alliance TN See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | WNY Flash | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Nov 22 vs Tennessee SC · Sun Dec 13 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.