Indy Eleven
ECNL Girls · Ohio Valley GU16 · 6 teams · Indy Eleven Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Dec 12, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | Indy Eleven | FC Pride Elite |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
FC Pride Elite average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
FC Pride Elite sit 2nd on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above FC Pride Elite on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Pride Elite game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Indy Eleven – FC Pride Elite) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Dec 7 – Sun Dec 13); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 3 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 2 | 1st▲ up 2 | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 6th▼ down 3 | 6th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
6th▼ down 3 | 6th▼ down 3 | 6th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 16%
- 2nd 17%
- 3rd 18%
- 4th 18%
- 5th 16%
- 6th 16%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Alliance TN | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.46) | Already ahead |
| 2 | FC Pride Elite | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.44) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 3rd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
FC Pride Elite 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 20 02:00 PM |
Racing Louisville Academy 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 11:45 AM |
Ohio Elite SA 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Seven Hills School |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 12:30 PM |
FC Pride Elite 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away FC Pride Performance Center |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.33 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Tennessee SC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.38 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
FC Alliance TN 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Cleveland Force SC |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.43 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Internationals SC |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.45 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Ohio Elite SA 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Racing Louisville Academy 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.48 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Tennessee SC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
FC Alliance TN 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.44 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Alliance TN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Dec 13 vs Racing Louisville Academy · Sat Jan 30 at Tennessee SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Pride Elite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Indy Eleven · Sun Feb 21 at Tennessee SC · Sat Mar 6 vs Indy Eleven See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Indy Eleven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs FC Pride Elite · Sun Dec 20 at Racing Louisville Academy · Sat Feb 13 at Ohio Elite SA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Ohio Elite SA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Racing Louisville Academy · Sat Dec 12 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Dec 13 at Tennessee SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Racing Louisville Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at Ohio Elite SA · Sun Dec 13 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Dec 20 vs Indy Eleven See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Tennessee SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Dec 13 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sat Jan 30 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Feb 14 vs Racing Louisville Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.