FC Alliance TN
ECNL Girls · Ohio Valley GU16 · 6 teams · FC Alliance TN (all teams)
Next game — Sat Dec 12, 11:00 AM
Hardin Valley Academy Stadium, Field 1 ↗ · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Alliance TN | Ohio Elite SA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Ohio Elite SA average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Ohio Elite SA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Alliance TN – Ohio Elite SA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Dec 7 – Sun Dec 13); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 4 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 5th▼ down 4 | 5th▼ down 4 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
6th▼ down 5 | 6th▼ down 5 | 6th▼ down 5 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 17%
- 2nd 18%
- 3rd 16%
- 4th 15%
- 5th 16%
- 6th 17%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 1st hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Dec 12 11:00 AM |
Ohio Elite SA 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Hardin Valley Academy Stadium · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 13 11:00 AM |
Racing Louisville Academy 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Hardin Valley Academy Stadium · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 02:00 PM |
Tennessee SC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Bethesda Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
Internationals SC |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 TBD |
Cleveland Force SC |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 11:00 AM |
Racing Louisville Academy 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 11:45 AM |
Ohio Elite SA 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Seven Hills School |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Ohio Premier |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.45 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
GTFC Impact |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 12:30 PM |
FC Pride Elite 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
FC Pride Performance Center |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Indy Eleven 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Tennessee SC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
FC Pride Elite 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.45 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Indy Eleven 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.46 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Alliance TN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Dec 13 vs Racing Louisville Academy · Sat Jan 30 at Tennessee SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Pride Elite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Indy Eleven · Sun Feb 21 at Tennessee SC · Sat Mar 6 vs Indy Eleven See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Indy Eleven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs FC Pride Elite · Sun Dec 20 at Racing Louisville Academy · Sat Feb 13 at Ohio Elite SA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Ohio Elite SA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Racing Louisville Academy · Sat Dec 12 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Dec 13 at Tennessee SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Racing Louisville Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at Ohio Elite SA · Sun Dec 13 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Dec 20 vs Indy Eleven See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Tennessee SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Dec 13 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sat Jan 30 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Feb 14 vs Racing Louisville Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.