FSA FC

ECNL Girls · New England GU14 · 9 teams · FSA FC (all teams)

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5th

2-0-1 record · 3 played

2.00 points per game

-1 goal diff · 3–4

LWWlast 3

19% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.4

-0.31 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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FSA FC
5th · 2.00 PPG

East Meadow Soccer Club
6th · 1.40 PPG

East Meadow Field of Dreams, South Turf ↗ · turf far trip

27% 23% 50%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.8 against · 1.03 expected points)

Season so far	FSA FC	East Meadow Soccer Club
Position	5th	6th
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-1	2-1-2
Points per game	2.00	1.40
Goals for / game	1.0	2.0
Goals against / game	1.3	1.6
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W W L	L W L D W
Biggest win	1–0 at FC Stars White	2–0 at World Class FC
Worst loss	0–3 at FC Stars Blue	1–2 vs FC Stars Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.17	+0.18
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.31	-0.22

Common opponents: FC Stars Blue — we 0–3; they 1–2. FC Stars White — we 1–0; they 2–2. World Class FC — we 2–1; they 2–0.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at FC Stars Blue.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 27%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at East Meadow Field of Dreams.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
What a win does
Select sit 4th on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.00.
A win moves us above Select on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the East Meadow Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FSA FC – East Meadow Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.75 PPG	5th— holds	4th▲ up 1	5th— holds
Win 2.25 PPG	5th— holds	2nd▲ up 3	5th— holds
Draw 1.75 PPG	5th— holds	4th▲ up 1	5th— holds
Loss 1.50 PPG	6th▼ down 1	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

19% top 4

81% below the top 4

5.4 average finish

1st <1%
2nd 1%
3rd 4%
4th 14%
5th 27%
6th 40%
7th 13%
8th 1%
9th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Connecticut FC United	3.00 (+1.00)	4th (1.68)	42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
2	FC Stars Blue	2.40 (+0.40)	3rd (2.05)	33 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
3	SUSA FC	2.40 (+0.40)	1st (2.16)	33 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4	Select	2.25 (+0.25)	2nd (2.07)	Win next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link FSA FC to East Meadow Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us

1 even

5 favour them

-1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.13 · 2nd hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM	East Meadow Soccer Club 6th · 2-1-2 · GD +2	Away far trip East Meadow Field of Dreams · turf	●●●●○ Tough	27%	1–1	1.03	1.76	Upside
Sun Oct 25 11:20 AM	SUSA FC 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +8	Away far trip The SUSA Orlin & Cohen Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	12%	0–1	0.59	1.52	Upside
Sat Oct 31 09:30 AM	Connecticut FC United 1st · 1-0-0 · GD +2	Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–1	1.15	1.46	Upside
Sat Nov 14 10:30 AM	East Meadow Soccer Club 6th · 2-1-2 · GD +2	Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–1	1.28	1.44	Upside
Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM	SUSA FC 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +8	Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●●●● Very tough	16%	0–1	0.74	1.35	Upside
Sat Mar 13 10:30 AM	Select 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +10	Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●●●● Very tough	19%	1–2	0.76	1.28	Upside
Sat Mar 27 TBD	Select 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +10	Away	●●●●● Very tough	13%	1–2	0.56	1.21	Upside
Sun Apr 11 TBD	Scorpions SC 8th · 1-0-4 · GD -13	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	1–1	2.00	1.28	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 10:30 AM	FC Stars Blue 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +8	Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●●●● Very tough	21%	1–1	0.87	1.25	Upside
Sat May 1 10:30 AM	Scorpions SC 8th · 1-0-4 · GD -13	Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	2–0	2.22	1.32	Swing game
Sat May 15 10:30 AM	World Class FC 7th · 1-0-3 · GD -4	Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.71	1.35	Swing game
Sun May 16 10:30 AM	FC Stars White 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -12	Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	1–0	2.12	1.40	Swing game
Sat May 22 TBD	Connecticut FC United 1st · 1-0-0 · GD +2	Away	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–1	0.92	1.37	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Connecticut FC United

3.00

-0.53

+0.01

65%

4.1

Sat Oct 3

World Class FC (7th)

3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SUSA FC · Sun Oct 25 at East Meadow Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at FSA FC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SUSA FC (3rd)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FSA FC (5th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Stars White (9th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Stars Blue (2nd)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Scorpions SC (8th)	2–1	75%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Select (4th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Scorpions SC (8th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Select (4th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	SUSA FC (3rd)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Stars Blue (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Stars White (9th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	World Class FC (7th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat May 22	vs	FSA FC (5th)	1–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Stars Blue

2.40

WWLWW

-0.35

+0.04

97%

2.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Stars White (9th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	SUSA FC (3rd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Scorpions SC (8th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FSA FC (5th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Select · Sat Nov 7 at World Class FC · Sun Nov 8 at Connecticut FC United See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Select (4th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	World Class FC (7th)	2–0	64%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Connecticut FC United (1st)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	FC Stars White (9th)	2–0	84%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Scorpions SC (8th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Select (4th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	SUSA FC (3rd)	0–1	31%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Connecticut FC United (1st)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	World Class FC (7th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	FSA FC (5th)	1–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SUSA FC

2.40

LWWWW

-0.22

-0.03

99%

2.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Scorpions SC (8th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Select (4th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Stars White (9th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Stars Blue (2nd)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	World Class FC (7th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Connecticut FC United · Sun Oct 25 vs FSA FC · Sun Nov 1 vs East Meadow Soccer Club See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Connecticut FC United (1st)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FSA FC (5th)	1–0	65%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–0	63%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FSA FC (5th)	1–0	58%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	FC Stars Blue (2nd)	1–0	40%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	FC Stars White (9th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Connecticut FC United (1st)	1–0	51%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Select (4th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Scorpions SC (8th)	2–0	87%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	World Class FC (7th)	1–0	72%
·	Sat May 1	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–0	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Select

+10

2.25

WWLW

-0.33

-0.03

96%

2.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	SUSA FC (3rd)	0–2
W	Wed Oct 7	vs	Scorpions SC (8th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Stars White (9th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Stars Blue · Sat Oct 31 at Scorpions SC · Sat Nov 14 vs World Class FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Stars Blue (2nd)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Scorpions SC (8th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	World Class FC (7th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Connecticut FC United (1st)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Stars White (9th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	FC Stars Blue (2nd)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	FSA FC (5th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	World Class FC (7th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Connecticut FC United (1st)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	FSA FC (5th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	SUSA FC (3rd)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FSA FC

-1

2.00

LWW

-0.31

+0.13

19%

5.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	World Class FC (7th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Stars White (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Stars Blue (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Meadow Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 at SUSA FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Connecticut FC United See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SUSA FC (3rd)	0–1	12%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Connecticut FC United (1st)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	SUSA FC (3rd)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Select (4th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Select (4th)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Scorpions SC (8th)	1–1	59%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC Stars Blue (2nd)	1–1	21%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Scorpions SC (8th)	2–0	68%
·	Sat May 15	vs	World Class FC (7th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun May 16	vs	FC Stars White (9th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat May 22	at	Connecticut FC United (1st)	1–1	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Meadow Soccer Club

1.40

WDLWL

-0.22

+0.11

23%

5.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Select (4th)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Scorpions SC (8th)	3–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Stars Blue (2nd)	1–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Stars White (9th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	World Class FC (7th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FSA FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Connecticut FC United · Sun Nov 1 at SUSA FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FSA FC (5th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Connecticut FC United (1st)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	SUSA FC (3rd)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FSA FC (5th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	FC Stars White (9th)	2–0	67%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	FC Stars Blue (2nd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	World Class FC (7th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Scorpions SC (8th)	3–0	79%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Select (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Connecticut FC United (1st)	1–2	30%
·	Sat May 1	vs	SUSA FC (3rd)	0–1	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

World Class FC

-4

0.75

WLLL

+0.32

+0.01

6.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FSA FC (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Connecticut FC United (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	SUSA FC (3rd)	1–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs FC Stars Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Stars White · Sat Nov 14 at Select See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Stars Blue (2nd)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Stars White (9th)	1–0	56%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Select (4th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Scorpions SC (8th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Select (4th)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Scorpions SC (8th)	1–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Stars White (9th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Stars Blue (2nd)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	SUSA FC (3rd)	0–1	9%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Connecticut FC United (1st)	1–1	23%
·	Sat May 15	at	FSA FC (5th)	1–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Scorpions SC

-13

0.60

WLLLL

+0.43

+0.13

8.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	SUSA FC (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	1–3
L	Wed Oct 7	at	Select (4th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Stars Blue (2nd)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Stars White (9th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Select · Sat Nov 14 vs Connecticut FC United · Sun Nov 15 vs World Class FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Select (4th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Connecticut FC United (1st)	1–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	World Class FC (7th)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Stars Blue (2nd)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	FC Stars White (9th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Connecticut FC United (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	World Class FC (7th)	1–1	19%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FSA FC (5th)	1–1	19%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–3	9%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	SUSA FC (3rd)	0–2	3%
·	Sat May 1	at	FSA FC (5th)	0–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Stars White

-12

0.17

LLDLL

+0.28

+0.13

8.6

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Stars Blue (2nd)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	SUSA FC (3rd)	0–2
D	Sat Oct 3	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FSA FC (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Scorpions SC (8th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Select (4th)	0–6

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Connecticut FC United · Sun Nov 8 at World Class FC · Sat Feb 27 at FC Stars Blue See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Connecticut FC United (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	World Class FC (7th)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	FC Stars Blue (2nd)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Select (4th)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Scorpions SC (8th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (6th)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	SUSA FC (3rd)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	World Class FC (7th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Connecticut FC United (1st)	0–2	12%
·	Sun May 16	at	FSA FC (5th)	0–1	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.