Sporting Blue Valley
ECNL Girls · Midwest GU14 · 8 teams · Sporting Blue Valley (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM
WWT Soccer Park, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.6 for, 3.6 against · 0.17 expected points)
| Season so far | Sporting Blue Valley | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-5 | 7-1-0 |
| Points per game | 1.13 | 2.75 |
| Goals for / game | 1.1 | 3.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.8 | 0.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W L L | W W W D |
| Biggest win | 1–0 vs MN Thunder Academy | 4–0 at Kansas City Athletics |
| Worst loss | 0–7 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.47 | +1.76 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.10 | -0.34 |
Common opponents: St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green — we 1–2; they 1–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy score 3.2/game — well above the league's 1.2.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy concede only 0.5/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–5 vs Chicago Inter, 0–7 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club, 0–2 vs Nationals SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 3%; a draw (7%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:30 PM at WWT Soccer Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting Blue Valley – St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.33 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.11 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we fall to at least 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 3%
- 4th 20%
- 5th 31%
- 6th 31%
- 7th 15%
- 8th 1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy | 2.75 (+1.62) | 1st (2.64) | 46 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green | 2.00 (+0.87) | 2nd (1.92) | 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 3 | Kansas City Athletics | 1.90 (+0.77) | 3rd (1.72) | 29 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 4 | Missouri Rush | 1.57 (+0.44) | 4th (1.32) | 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
How the results connect
5 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Sporting Blue Valley to St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.01 · 4th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:30 PM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 1st · 7-1-0 · GD +22 |
Away far trip
WWT Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–3 | 0.17 | 1.02 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 10:45 AM |
Missouri Rush 4th · 3-2-2 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Missouri Rush Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.09 | 1.03 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 01:45 PM |
Gretna Elite Academy 7th · 2-1-5 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.07 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
Sporting Iowa 8th · 0-1-6 · GD -12 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
1–0 | 2.11 | 1.16 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Kansas City Athletics 3rd · 6-1-3 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–1 | 1.05 | 1.15 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 08:00 AM |
MN Thunder Academy 6th · 1-2-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Winter Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.20 | 1.15 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Kansas City Athletics 3rd · 6-1-3 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.81 | 1.13 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Gretna Elite Academy 7th · 2-1-5 · GD -9 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
1–1 | 1.75 | 1.17 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Missouri Rush 4th · 3-2-2 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.36 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 02:00 PM |
Sporting Iowa 8th · 0-1-6 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
Hy-Vee Multiplex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
1–0 | 1.91 | 1.22 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 1st · 7-1-0 · GD +22 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–3 | 0.26 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 2nd · 4-4-0 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
0–1 | 0.77 | 1.15 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 4 | +22 | 22 | 2.75 | DWWW | -0.34 | -0.23 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 21 at Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 6 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 16 | 2.00 | DWWW | -0.24 | -0.10 | 100% | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Nov 8 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Kansas City Athletics | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 19 | 1.90 | WLWLW | -0.09 | -0.08 | 97% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 6 at Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 13 at Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Mar 20 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Missouri Rush | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 11 | 1.57 | DWDW | -0.73 | +0.13 | 57% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 7 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sporting Blue Valley | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 9 | 1.13 | LLWWL | +0.10 | -0.01 | 23% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy · Sun Oct 25 at Missouri Rush · Sat Nov 21 at Gretna Elite Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | MN Thunder Academy | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 | 1.00 | DWDLL | -0.32 | +0.09 | 18% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Wisconsin · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Iowa · Sat Mar 6 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Gretna Elite Academy | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 7 | 0.88 | LLDLL | +0.19 | -0.02 | 4% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting Blue Valley See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Sporting Iowa | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 1 | 0.14 | LLLLL | +0.36 | -0.01 | 0% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Oct 25 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at MN Thunder Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.