Missouri Rush

ECNL Girls · Midwest GU14 · 8 teams · Missouri Rush (all teams)

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4th

3-2-2 record · 7 played

1.57 points per game

-4 goal diff · 10–14

DWDWlast 4

55% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.5

-0.73 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Missouri Rush
4th · 1.57 PPG

St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green
2nd · 2.00 PPG

WWT Soccer Park, Field 3 ↗ far trip

15% 22% 63%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.8 for, 1.9 against · 0.68 expected points)

Season so far	Missouri Rush	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green
Position	4th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	3-2-2	4-4-0
Points per game	1.57	2.00
Goals for / game	1.4	1.3
Goals against / game	2.0	0.5
Clean sheets	0	2
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W D W D	W W W D
Biggest win	4–1 vs FC Wisconsin	2–0 at Sporting Iowa
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.28	+0.54
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.73	-0.24

Common opponents: Sporting Iowa — we 2–1; they 2–0. Gretna Elite Academy — we 2–2; they 1–0.

Game plan

Hard to break down
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green concede only 0.5/game with 2 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 15%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at WWT Soccer Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Missouri Rush – St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.38 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 1.75 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 1.50 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 1.38 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

55% top 4

45% below the top 4

4.5 average finish

1st
2nd 2%
3rd 11%
4th 43%
5th 26%
6th 14%
7th 4%
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.52 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy	2.75 (+1.18)	1st (2.64)	47 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green	2.00 (+0.43)	2nd (1.92)	31 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
3	Kansas City Athletics	1.90 (+0.33)	3rd (1.72)	29 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection

How the results connect

8 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Missouri Rush to St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

7 favour them

-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.13 · 1st hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 2nd · 4-4-0 · GD +6	Away far trip WWT Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	15%	0–1	0.68	1.46	Upside
Sun Oct 25 10:45 AM	Sporting Blue Valley 5th · 3-0-5 · GD -13	Home Missouri Rush Sports Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	1–1	1.69	1.49	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM	Eclipse Select Soccer Club	Home Missouri Rush Sports Park	●●●●○ Tough	36%	1–1	1.32	1.47	Upside
Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 1st · 7-1-0 · GD +22	Home Missouri Rush Sports Park	●●●●● Very tough	7%	0–3	0.31	1.36	Upside
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Kansas City Athletics 3rd · 6-1-3 · GD +3	Home	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–1	1.21	1.35	Upside
Sun Mar 7 TBD	Rockford Raptors FC	Home	●●●●○ Tough	36%	1–1	1.32	1.35	Upside
Sun Mar 21 TBD	Nationals SC	Home	●●●●○ Tough	36%	1–1	1.32	1.35	Upside
Sat Apr 3 TBD	Sporting Iowa 8th · 0-1-6 · GD -12	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–0	2.26	1.41	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 1st · 7-1-0 · GD +22	Away far trip WWT Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	4%	0–3	0.20	1.33	Upside
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Gretna Elite Academy 7th · 2-1-5 · GD -9	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.68	1.35	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 TBD	MN Thunder Academy 6th · 1-2-2 · GD -2	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	1–1	1.59	1.37	Swing game
Sat May 1 TBD	Kansas City Athletics 3rd · 6-1-3 · GD +3	Away	●●●●● Very tough	25%	1–2	0.94	1.34	Upside
Sun May 2 TBD	Sporting Blue Valley 5th · 3-0-5 · GD -13	Away	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.42	1.35	Upside
Sat May 22 TBD	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 2nd · 4-4-0 · GD +6	Home	●●●●● Very tough	21%	0–1	0.87	1.32	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy

+22

2.75

DWWW

-0.34

-0.23

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Sporting Iowa (8th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Gretna Elite Academy (7th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	4–0
D	Sat Sep 5	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (2nd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 21 at Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 6 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Missouri Rush (4th)	3–0	82%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (—)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	MN Thunder Academy (6th)	2–0	85%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (2nd)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (7th)	3–0	90%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Missouri Rush (4th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Michigan Hawks (—)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Michigan Hawks Magic (—)	2–0	80%
·	Sat May 1	at	MN Thunder Academy (6th)	2–0	79%
·	Sun May 2	at	Sporting Iowa (8th)	3–0	91%
·	Sat May 15	at	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	2–0	80%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green

2.00

DWWW

-0.24

-0.10

100%

2.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Gretna Elite Academy (7th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Sporting Iowa (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 5	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (1st)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Nov 8 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Missouri Rush (4th)	1–0	63%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	1–0	53%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	MN Thunder Academy (6th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (1st)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (7th)	1–0	69%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	1–0	53%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Michigan Hawks Magic (—)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Michigan Hawks (—)	1–0	53%
·	Sat May 1	at	Sporting Iowa (8th)	1–0	71%
·	Sun May 2	at	MN Thunder Academy (6th)	1–0	53%
·	Sat May 15	at	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	1–1	45%
·	Sun May 16	at	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	1–0	58%
·	Sat May 22	at	Missouri Rush (4th)	1–0	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kansas City Athletics

1.90

WLWLW

-0.09

-0.08

98%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Liverpool FC MI (—)	6–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Nationals SC (—)	0–5
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	MN Thunder Academy (6th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (1st)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Sporting Iowa (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (7th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	4–2
D	Sat Sep 5	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	1–1

Next: Sat Mar 6 at Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 13 at Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Mar 20 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Missouri Rush (4th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (2nd)	0–1	22%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Sporting Iowa (8th)	2–0	69%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	MN Thunder Academy (6th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Missouri Rush (4th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat May 8	at	Gretna Elite Academy (7th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat May 15	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (2nd)	1–1	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Missouri Rush

-4

1.57

DWDW

-0.73

+0.13

55%

4.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Wisconsin (—)	4–1
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Gretna Elite Academy (7th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Sporting Iowa (8th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	MN Thunder Academy (6th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 7 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (2nd)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (—)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Nationals SC (—)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Sporting Iowa (8th)	2–0	69%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Gretna Elite Academy (7th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	MN Thunder Academy (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat May 1	at	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	1–2	25%
·	Sun May 2	at	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat May 22	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (2nd)	0–1	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Blue Valley

-13

1.13

LLWWL

+0.10

-0.01

24%

5.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Nationals SC (—)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Liverpool FC MI (—)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	MN Thunder Academy (6th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (2nd)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 6	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy · Sun Oct 25 at Missouri Rush · Sat Nov 21 at Gretna Elite Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Missouri Rush (4th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Gretna Elite Academy (7th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Sporting Iowa (8th)	1–0	63%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	MN Thunder Academy (6th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (7th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Missouri Rush (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat May 8	at	Sporting Iowa (8th)	1–0	55%
·	Sat May 15	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sun May 16	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (2nd)	0–1	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MN Thunder Academy

-2

1.00

DWDLL

-0.32

+0.09

20%

5.5

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (—)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (7th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Missouri Rush (4th)	1–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Wisconsin · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Iowa · Sat Mar 6 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Wisconsin (—)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sporting Iowa (8th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (2nd)	0–1	14%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (1st)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Gretna Elite Academy (7th)	1–0	41%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Sporting Iowa (8th)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Missouri Rush (4th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat May 1	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sun May 2	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (2nd)	0–1	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Gretna Elite Academy

-9

0.88

LLDLL

+0.19

-0.02

6.5

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (2nd)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (1st)	0–3
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Missouri Rush (4th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	MN Thunder Academy (6th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Sporting Iowa (8th)	1–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (—)	1–6
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	FC Wisconsin (—)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting Blue Valley See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	0–1	23%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	MN Thunder Academy (6th)	0–1	29%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (2nd)	0–1	9%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Nationals SC (—)	0–1	23%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Liverpool FC MI (—)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Missouri Rush (4th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Sporting Iowa (8th)	1–0	43%
·	Sat May 1	at	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	0–1	20%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Michigan Hawks (—)	0–1	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Iowa

-12

0.14

LLLLL

+0.36

-0.01

7.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (1st)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (2nd)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Missouri Rush (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 5	at	Gretna Elite Academy (7th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Oct 25 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at MN Thunder Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	0–1	13%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	0–1	13%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	MN Thunder Academy (6th)	0–1	14%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	0–1	14%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Missouri Rush (4th)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Kansas City Athletics (3rd)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Liverpool FC MI (—)	0–1	13%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Nationals SC (—)	0–1	13%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	MN Thunder Academy (6th)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (7th)	0–1	25%
·	Sat May 1	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (2nd)	0–1	7%
·	Sun May 2	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (5th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Michigan Hawks Magic (—)	0–1	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.