NTH NASA
ECNL Boys · Southeast BU18/19 · 9 teams · NASA Tophat (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Lake Point Sporting Community, Field 3 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.7 for, 1.2 against · 2.24 expected points)
| Season so far | NTH NASA | GSA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-3-2 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L W D | L L L W D |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs Concorde Fire Premier | 2–1 at South Carolina United |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs South Carolina Surf | 1–6 at Concorde Fire Premier |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.37 | -0.88 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | -0.09 |
Already played this season: Sun Aug 30 2–2 at GSA (D)
Common opponents: Atlanta Fire United — we 3–3; they 1–1. South Carolina United — we 3–3; they 2–1. CESA Triumph — we 3–0; they 0–1. South Carolina Surf — we 1–3; they 1–4. Concorde Fire Premier — we 4–0; they 1–6.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Concorde Fire Platinum.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 69% / draw 16% / loss 15%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Confidence is low on their side
GSA have lost 3 straight (form: DWLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
CESA Triumph sit 3rd on 1.63 PPG; we are on 1.50.A point moves us above CESA Triumph on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the GSA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NTH NASA – GSA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.67 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Win 1.67 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.44 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 6th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 7%
- 3rd 65%
- 4th 18%
- 5th 7%
- 6th 2%
- 7th 1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 2.75 (+1.25) | 1st (2.58) | 32 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | South Carolina Surf | 2.00 (+0.50) | 2nd (2.10) | 20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 3 | CESA Triumph | 1.63 (+0.13) | 4th (1.35) | A point next game |
How the results connect
32 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link NTH NASA to GSA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.05 · 7th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
GSA 8th · 1-2-3 · GD -8 |
Home Lake Point Sporting Community |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.24 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 04:30 PM |
United Futbol Academy 5th · 2-1-3 · GD -3 |
Home Metro North Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.94 | 1.62 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
South Carolina Surf 2nd · 3-1-1 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Pinewood Prep |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.83 | 1.55 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 03:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 1st · 7-1-0 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.55 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 03:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Premier 6th · 2-1-4 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.89 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM |
CESA Triumph 3rd · 4-1-3 · GD -3 |
Home Metro North Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 1.53 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
South Carolina United 9th · 1-2-5 · GD -8 |
Home Metro North Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.17 | 1.57 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 19 11:00 AM |
Atlanta Fire United 7th · 1-4-3 · GD -3 |
Home Lake Point Sporting Community |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 1.59 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 6 | +20 | 22 | 2.75 | WWWWW | -0.20 | -0.23 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs GSA · Sat Nov 7 at CESA Triumph See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | South Carolina Surf | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 10 | 2.00 | LWWDW | -0.03 | -0.23 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Oct 31 vs NTH NASA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | CESA Triumph | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 13 | 1.63 | DWLLW | -0.16 | +0.23 | 56% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at GSA · Sat Oct 31 at South Carolina United · Sat Nov 7 vs Concorde Fire Platinum See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | NTH NASA | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 12 | 1.50 | DWLWL | +0.00 | -0.05 | 90% | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs GSA · Sun Oct 25 vs United Futbol Academy · Sat Oct 31 at South Carolina Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | United Futbol Academy | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 | 1.17 | WDWLL | +0.09 | +0.02 | 24% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 25 at NTH NASA · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Concorde Fire Premier | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 7 | 1.00 | LLWLD | +0.24 | -0.02 | 10% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 7 at South Carolina United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Atlanta Fire United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 7 | 0.88 | WLDLD | +0.07 | +0.03 | 15% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs GSA · Sun Nov 1 at South Carolina Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | GSA | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 5 | 0.83 | DWLLL | -0.09 | +0.22 | 3% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs CESA Triumph · Sat Oct 24 at NTH NASA · Sun Oct 25 at Atlanta Fire United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | South Carolina United | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 5 | 0.63 | LLDWL | +0.11 | +0.09 | 2% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs CESA Triumph · Sat Nov 7 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Concorde Fire Platinum See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.