PacNW SC
ECNL Boys · Northwest BU15 · 9 teams · PacNW (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Hanford High School , Grass ↗ · grass far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.9 for, 0.8 against · 2.13 expected points)
| Season so far | PacNW SC | 3RSC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-0 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / game | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W | L L W W D |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Washington Premier | 1–0 at Columbia Premier SC |
| Worst loss | — | 0–6 at XF 1 |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.93 | -0.71 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.74 | +0.34 |
Common opponents: Snohomish United — we 2–0; they 1–0. Washington Premier — we 3–0; they 1–3. Columbia Premier SC — we 2–1; they 1–0. Eastside FC — we 3–1; they 1–2.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
3RSC average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 1 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 64% / draw 21% / loss 15%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Grass field
Venue listed as "Grass" at Hanford High School .If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.
-
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Hanford High School .Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the 3RSC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PacNW SC – 3RSC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.60 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.40 PPG |
4th▼ down 3 | 4th▼ down 3 | 4th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 7%
- 2nd 16%
- 3rd 43%
- 4th 31%
- 5th 3%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
16 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link PacNW SC to 3RSC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.17 · 3rd hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 12 02:30 PM no score posted |
Seattle United 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +18 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.79 | 2.56 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
3RSC 6th · 2-1-3 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Hanford High School · grass |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
1–0 | 2.13 | 2.49 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 TBD |
XF 1 2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +31 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.84 | 2.25 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
XF 2 7th · 0-1-4 · GD -17 |
Away far trip
Marymoor Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
2–0 | 2.52 | 2.28 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
Snohomish United 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -38 |
Away far trip
Snohomish High School · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
4–0 | 2.90 | 2.35 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 19 TBD |
Eastside FC 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +15 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.48 | 2.27 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 9 TBD |
Washington Premier 5th · 3-0-2 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
1–0 | 1.91 | 2.23 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 16 TBD |
3RSC 6th · 2-1-3 · GD -7 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–0 | 2.32 | 2.24 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 17 06:01 AM |
Seattle United 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +18 |
Home TBD PacNW Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.04 | 2.15 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 30 TBD |
XF 2 7th · 0-1-4 · GD -17 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–0 | 2.67 | 2.19 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 13 TBD |
Columbia Premier SC 8th · 0-1-5 · GD -12 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–0 | 2.36 | 2.20 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
XF 1 2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +31 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.62 | 2.10 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PacNW SC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.74 | +0.17 | 97% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Seattle United · Sat Oct 24 at 3RSC · Sun Nov 1 vs XF 1 See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | XF 1 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 4 | +31 | 18 | 2.57 | WWLWW | -0.88 | +0.17 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at PacNW SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Eastside FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Seattle United | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 3 | +18 | 10 | 2.50 | DWWW | -0.91 | -0.07 | 100% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs PacNW SC · Sat Oct 17 vs Snohomish United · Sat Oct 24 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Eastside FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | -1.21 | +0.38 | 92% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Washington Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Seattle United · Sat Nov 14 at XF 1 See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Washington Premier | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 | 1.80 | WLLWW | -0.46 | +0.21 | 12% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eastside FC · Sun Nov 1 at Seattle United · Sat Nov 14 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | 3RSC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 | 1.17 | DWWLL | +0.34 | +0.02 | 0% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs PacNW SC · Sun Nov 1 vs XF 2 · Sat Dec 5 vs Snohomish United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | XF 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLDL | +1.62 | -0.38 | 0% | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Snohomish United · Sun Nov 1 at 3RSC · Sun Nov 8 vs PacNW SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Columbia Premier SC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLDL | +0.42 | +0.01 | 0% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle United · Sun Nov 8 at Snohomish United · Sat Nov 14 at Washington Premier See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Snohomish United | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 38 | -38 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.16 | +0.12 | 0% | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Seattle United · Sat Oct 24 at XF 2 · Sun Nov 8 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.10 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.