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ECNL Boys · New England BU16 · 6 teams · Select (all teams)

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5th

0-0-0 record · 0 played

0.00 points per game

+0 goal diff · 0–0

last 0

63% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.6

+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Dec 12, TBD

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Select
5th · 0.00 PPG

SUSA FC ACADEMY
6th · 0.00 PPG

Venue TBD

47% 18% 35%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)

Season so far	Select	SUSA FC ACADEMY
Position	5th	6th
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-0	0-0-0
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Goals for / game	0.0	0.0
Goals against / game	0.0	0.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	—	—
Biggest win	—	—
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.00	+0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.00	+0.00

Game plan

They struggle to score
SUSA FC ACADEMY average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
What a win does
Scorpions SC sit 4th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A point moves us above Scorpions SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SUSA FC ACADEMY game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Select – SUSA FC ACADEMY) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Dec 7 – Sun Dec 13); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.00 PPG	1st▲ up 4	5th— holds	5th— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st▲ up 4	1st▲ up 4	5th— holds
Draw 1.00 PPG	1st▲ up 4	5th— holds	5th— holds
Loss 0.00 PPG	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

15% finish 1st

63% top 4

37% below the top 4

3.6 average finish

1st 15%
2nd 16%
3rd 16%
4th 17%
5th 18%
6th 19%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Connecticut FC United	0.00 (+0.00)	5th (1.44)	Already ahead
2	FC Stars	0.00 (+0.00)	3rd (1.44)	Already ahead
3	FSA FC	0.00 (+0.00)	1st (1.47)	Already ahead
4	Scorpions SC	0.00 (+0.00)	4th (1.44)	Already ahead

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 5th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Dec 12 TBD	SUSA FC ACADEMY 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.58	Swing game
Sat Dec 19 TBD	SUSA FC	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.58	Swing game
Sat Mar 6 TBD	SUSA FC ACADEMY 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.47	Upside
Sat Mar 13 TBD	Scorpions SC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.49	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 TBD	FC Stars 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.51	Swing game
Sat Apr 3 01:00 PM	FSA FC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.47	Upside
Sun Apr 4 TBD	Connecticut FC United 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.43	Upside
Sun May 2 TBD	Oakwood Soccer Club	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.45	Swing game
Sat May 8 TBD	AC Connecticut	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.47	Swing game
Sun May 9 TBD	East Coast Surf SC	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.48	Swing game
Sun May 16 08:00 AM	East Meadow Soccer Club	Away East Meadow Field of Dreams · turf	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.46	Upside
Sat May 22 10:30 AM	FSA FC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.44	Upside
Sun May 23 TBD	Connecticut FC United 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.45	Swing game
Sat Jun 5 10:45 AM	Scorpions SC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away Taunton Forekicks	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.43	Upside
Sun Jun 6 TBD	FC Stars 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.42	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Connecticut FC United

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 at FC Stars · Sun Dec 13 at Scorpions SC · Sat Dec 19 at FSA FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	at	FC Stars (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Scorpions SC (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Dec 19	at	FSA FC (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Select (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	SUSA FC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	vs	FSA FC (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	vs	FC Stars (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Scorpions SC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 22	at	SUSA FC ACADEMY (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 23	at	Select (5th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Stars

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Connecticut FC United · Sun Dec 13 vs FSA FC · Sat Dec 19 at Scorpions SC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Connecticut FC United (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	FSA FC (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Dec 19	at	Scorpions SC (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	FSA FC (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	SUSA FC ACADEMY (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Select (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Scorpions SC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	at	Connecticut FC United (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 22	vs	East Coast Surf SC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 23	vs	Manhattan SC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jun 5	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Jun 6	vs	Select (5th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FSA FC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 at Scorpions SC · Sun Dec 13 at FC Stars · Sat Dec 19 vs Connecticut FC United See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Scorpions SC (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	FC Stars (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	Connecticut FC United (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	FC Stars (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Select (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	SUSA FC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	at	Connecticut FC United (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Scorpions SC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Select (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 23	at	SUSA FC ACADEMY (6th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Scorpions SC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 vs FSA FC · Sun Dec 13 vs Connecticut FC United · Sat Dec 19 vs FC Stars See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	FSA FC (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Connecticut FC United (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	FC Stars (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Select (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	SUSA FC ACADEMY (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	FC Stars (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 8	at	FSA FC (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 9	at	Connecticut FC United (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Manhattan SC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 23	vs	East Coast Surf SC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jun 5	vs	Select (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Jun 6	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (6th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Select

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 vs SUSA FC ACADEMY · Sat Dec 19 vs SUSA FC · Sat Mar 6 at SUSA FC ACADEMY See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	SUSA FC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	SUSA FC ACADEMY (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Scorpions SC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	FC Stars (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	FSA FC (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Connecticut FC United (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	vs	AC Connecticut (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 9	vs	East Coast Surf SC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 16	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (—)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 22	at	FSA FC (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 23	vs	Connecticut FC United (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jun 5	at	Scorpions SC (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Jun 6	at	FC Stars (2nd)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SUSA FC ACADEMY

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 at Select · Sat Mar 6 vs Select · Sat Mar 13 vs FC Stars See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Select (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Select (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Stars (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Scorpions SC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Connecticut FC United (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	FSA FC (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Oakwood Soccer Club (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	vs	AC Connecticut (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Manhattan SC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Connecticut FC United (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 23	vs	FSA FC (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jun 5	at	FC Stars (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Jun 6	at	Scorpions SC (4th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.