CCV STARS

ECNL Boys · Mountain BU18/19 · 6 teams · CCV STARS (all teams)

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3rd

2-0-4 record · 6 played

1.00 points per game

-13 goal diff · 12–25

WLLLLlast 5

31% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.9

+0.48 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Mar 13, 01:00 PM

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CCV STARS
3rd · 1.00 PPG

Colorado Rush
5th · 0.00 PPG

CCV Stars Peoria Sports Complex, field 1 ↗

27% 16% 58%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.4 for, 3.3 against · 0.96 expected points)

Season so far	CCV STARS	Colorado Rush
Position	3rd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-4	0-0-0
Points per game	1.00	0.00
Goals for / game	2.0	0.0
Goals against / game	4.2	0.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	2	0
Form (recent first)	L L L L W	—
Biggest win	3–1 at La Roca FC	—
Worst loss	0–7 vs Avalanche	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.32	+0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.48	+0.00

Game plan

They struggle to score
Colorado Rush average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 0 of 0.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–7 vs Avalanche, 0–3 vs Arizona Arsenal.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 27%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
What a win does
Arizona Arsenal sit 2nd on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.00.
A point moves us above Arizona Arsenal on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Colorado Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CCV STARS – Colorado Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.86 PPG	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1
Win 1.29 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Draw 1.00 PPG	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1
Loss 0.86 PPG	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we fall to at least 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

31% top 4

69% below the top 4

4.9 average finish

1st
2nd 3%
3rd 10%
4th 18%
5th 34%
6th 35%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Avalanche	3.00 (+2.00)	1st (2.67)	30 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Arizona Arsenal	1.17 (+0.17)	4th (1.25)	A point next game

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 5th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Mar 13 01:00 PM	Colorado Rush 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home CCV Stars Peoria Sports Complex	●●●●○ Tough	27%	2–3	0.96	0.99	Upside
Sun Mar 14 11:00 AM	Real Colorado National	Home West Valley Events Complex	●●●●○ Tough	27%	2–3	0.96	0.99	Upside
Sat Mar 20 09:00 AM	Colorado Storm Central 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home West Valley Events Complex	●●●●○ Tough	27%	2–3	0.96	0.99	Upside
Sun Mar 21 09:00 AM	Colorado EDGE	Home West Valley Events Complex	●●●●○ Tough	27%	2–3	0.96	0.98	Upside
Sat Apr 3 09:00 AM	Colorado Storm Central 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away far trip Dick's Sporting Goods Park	●●●●● Very tough	18%	2–3	0.66	0.95	Upside
Sat Apr 17 01:00 PM	Pride SC	Home West Valley Events Complex	●●●●○ Tough	27%	2–3	0.96	0.95	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Avalanche

+19

3.00

WWWWW

-0.72

-0.05

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 4	at	CCV STARS (3rd)	7–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	CCV STARS (3rd)	8–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	5–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	La Roca FC (4th)	2–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at La Roca FC · Sat Dec 5 vs El Paso Locomotive FC - B08/09 · Sun Dec 6 vs NM Rapids SC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	La Roca FC (4th)	2–1	73%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC - B08/09 (—)	4–1	80%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	NM Rapids SC (—)	4–1	80%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	4–1	80%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	4–1	80%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	4–1	80%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	3–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arizona Arsenal

-3

1.17

LWLDW

+0.13

+0.00

79%

3.6

W	Sat Oct 17	at	CCV STARS (3rd)	3–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	La Roca FC (4th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Avalanche (1st)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 27	at	La Roca FC (4th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Avalanche (1st)	2–5
L	Fri Sep 11	vs	CCV STARS (3rd)	3–4

Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Real Colorado National · Sun Mar 14 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Mar 20 vs Colorado EDGE See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Real Colorado National (—)	1–2	39%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–2	39%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	1–2	39%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	1–2	39%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Pride SC (—)	1–2	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CCV STARS

-13

1.00

WLLLL

+0.48

+0.00

31%

4.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Avalanche (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	La Roca FC (4th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Avalanche (1st)	4–8
W	Sat Sep 26	at	La Roca FC (4th)	3–1
W	Fri Sep 11	at	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	4–3

Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Colorado Rush · Sun Mar 14 vs Real Colorado National · Sat Mar 20 vs Colorado Storm Central See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	2–3	27%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Real Colorado National (—)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	2–3	27%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	2–3	18%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pride SC (—)	2–3	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

La Roca FC

-3

0.80

LLLWD

-0.25

+0.30

34%

4.8

D	Sun Oct 4	at	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	CCV STARS (3rd)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	CCV STARS (3rd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Avalanche (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Avalanche · Sat Dec 5 vs NM Rapids SC · Sun Dec 6 vs El Paso Locomotive FC - B08/09 See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Avalanche (1st)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	NM Rapids SC (—)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC - B08/09 (—)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	1–1	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Rush

0.00

—

+0.01

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 vs El Paso Locomotive FC - B08/09 · Sat Jan 30 at La Roca FC · Sun Jan 31 at Avalanche See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC - B08/09 (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	La Roca FC (4th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Avalanche (1st)	1–4	10%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	NM Rapids SC (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	CCV STARS (3rd)	3–2	58%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	2–1	40%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Real Colorado National (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Pride SC (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	2–2	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm Central

0.00

—

+0.02

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Jan 30 at Avalanche · Sun Jan 31 at La Roca FC · Sat Feb 20 vs Avalanche See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Avalanche (1st)	1–4	10%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	La Roca FC (4th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Avalanche (1st)	1–3	16%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	La Roca FC (4th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Real Colorado National (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Pride SC (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	CCV STARS (3rd)	3–2	58%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	2–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	CCV STARS (3rd)	3–2	69%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	2–1	50%
·	Sat May 8	at	Colorado Rush (5th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.