Avalanche

ECNL Boys · Mountain BU18/19 · 6 teams · Utah Avalanche (all teams)

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1st

5-0-0 record · 5 played

3.00 points per game

+19 goal diff · 25–6

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.0

-0.72 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 02:15 PM

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Avalanche
1st · 3.00 PPG

La Roca FC
4th · 0.80 PPG

La Roca Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip

73% 15% 13%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.2 against · 2.33 expected points)

Season so far	Avalanche	La Roca FC
Position	1st	4th
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-0	1-1-3
Points per game	3.00	0.80
Goals for / game	5.0	1.0
Goals against / game	1.2	1.6
Clean sheets	3	0
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	D W L L L
Biggest win	7–0 at CCV STARS	3–1 at CCV STARS
Worst loss	—	0–2 at Avalanche
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.09	-0.38
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.72	-0.25

Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 2–0 vs La Roca FC (W)

Common opponents: Arizona Arsenal — we 5–2, 3–0; they 0–1, 1–1. CCV STARS — we 8–4, 7–0; they 1–3, 3–1.

Game plan

They struggle to score
La Roca FC average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 2 of 5.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 73% chance; likely score 2–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 02:15 PM at La Roca Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the La Roca FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Avalanche – La Roca FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

97% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.0 average finish

1st 97%
2nd 3%
3rd <1%
4th
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

25 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Avalanche to La Roca FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

23 favour us

2 even

0 favour them

+4.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.05 · 6th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 02:15 PM	La Roca FC 4th · 1-1-3 · GD -3	Away far trip La Roca Park	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	2–1	2.33	2.89	Bank it
Sat Dec 5 09:00 AM	El Paso Locomotive FC - B08/09	Home Westminster College · turf?	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	4–1	2.49	2.83	Bank it
Sun Dec 6 09:00 AM	NM Rapids SC	Home Westminster College · turf?	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	4–1	2.49	2.79	Bank it
Sun Jan 17 09:00 AM	Colorado EDGE	Home Westminster College · turf?	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	4–1	2.49	2.76	Bank it
Sat Jan 30 11:15 AM	Colorado Storm Central 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home Westminster College · turf?	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	4–1	2.49	2.73	Bank it
Sun Jan 31 09:00 AM	Colorado Rush 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home Westminster College · turf?	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	4–1	2.49	2.71	Bank it
Sat Feb 20 01:30 PM	Colorado Storm Central 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away far trip Dick's Sporting Goods Park	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	3–1	2.25	2.67	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Avalanche

+19

3.00

WWWWW

-0.72

-0.05

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 4	at	CCV STARS (3rd)	7–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	CCV STARS (3rd)	8–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	5–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	La Roca FC (4th)	2–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at La Roca FC · Sat Dec 5 vs El Paso Locomotive FC - B08/09 · Sun Dec 6 vs NM Rapids SC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	La Roca FC (4th)	2–1	73%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC - B08/09 (—)	4–1	80%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	NM Rapids SC (—)	4–1	80%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	4–1	80%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	4–1	80%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	4–1	80%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	3–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arizona Arsenal

-3

1.17

LWLDW

+0.13

+0.00

79%

3.6

W	Sat Oct 17	at	CCV STARS (3rd)	3–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	La Roca FC (4th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Avalanche (1st)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 27	at	La Roca FC (4th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Avalanche (1st)	2–5
L	Fri Sep 11	vs	CCV STARS (3rd)	3–4

Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Real Colorado National · Sun Mar 14 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Mar 20 vs Colorado EDGE See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Real Colorado National (—)	1–2	39%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–2	39%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	1–2	39%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	1–2	39%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Pride SC (—)	1–2	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CCV STARS

-13

1.00

WLLLL

+0.48

+0.00

31%

4.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Avalanche (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	La Roca FC (4th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Avalanche (1st)	4–8
W	Sat Sep 26	at	La Roca FC (4th)	3–1
W	Fri Sep 11	at	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	4–3

Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Colorado Rush · Sun Mar 14 vs Real Colorado National · Sat Mar 20 vs Colorado Storm Central See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	2–3	27%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Real Colorado National (—)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	2–3	27%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	2–3	18%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pride SC (—)	2–3	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

La Roca FC

-3

0.80

LLLWD

-0.25

+0.30

34%

4.8

D	Sun Oct 4	at	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	CCV STARS (3rd)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	CCV STARS (3rd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Avalanche (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Avalanche · Sat Dec 5 vs NM Rapids SC · Sun Dec 6 vs El Paso Locomotive FC - B08/09 See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Avalanche (1st)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	NM Rapids SC (—)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC - B08/09 (—)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Colorado Rush (5th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	1–1	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Rush

0.00

—

+0.01

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 vs El Paso Locomotive FC - B08/09 · Sat Jan 30 at La Roca FC · Sun Jan 31 at Avalanche See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	El Paso Locomotive FC - B08/09 (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	La Roca FC (4th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Avalanche (1st)	1–4	10%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	NM Rapids SC (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	CCV STARS (3rd)	3–2	58%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	2–1	40%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Real Colorado National (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Pride SC (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Colorado Storm Central (6th)	2–2	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm Central

0.00

—

+0.02

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Jan 30 at Avalanche · Sun Jan 31 at La Roca FC · Sat Feb 20 vs Avalanche See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Avalanche (1st)	1–4	10%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	La Roca FC (4th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Avalanche (1st)	1–3	16%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	La Roca FC (4th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Real Colorado National (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Pride SC (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Colorado EDGE (—)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	CCV STARS (3rd)	3–2	58%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	2–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	CCV STARS (3rd)	3–2	69%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Arizona Arsenal (2nd)	2–1	50%
·	Sat May 8	at	Colorado Rush (5th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.