CCV STARS
ECNL Boys · Mountain BU16 · 6 teams · CCV STARS (all teams)
Next game — Sat Mar 13, 11:00 AM
CCV Stars Peoria Sports Complex, field 1 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.3 against · 1.71 expected points)
| Season so far | CCV STARS | Colorado Rush |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-3-1 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W D D L D | — |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs Arizona Arsenal | — |
| Worst loss | 2–3 at Avalanche | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.30 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.09 | +0.00 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Colorado Rush average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs Avalanche.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 49% / draw 23% / loss 28%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Colorado Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CCV STARS – Colorado Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.43 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.71 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 1.43 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.29 PPG |
4th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 18%
- 2nd 27%
- 3rd 28%
- 4th 18%
- 5th 8%
- 6th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avalanche | 1.80 (+0.30) | 1st (1.66) | 13 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 5th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Mar 13 11:00 AM |
Colorado Rush 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home CCV Stars Peoria Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.71 | 1.53 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 11:00 AM |
Real Colorado National |
Home West Valley Events Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.71 | 1.55 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 11:00 AM |
Colorado Storm Central 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home West Valley Events Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.71 | 1.57 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 01:00 PM |
Colorado EDGE |
Home West Valley Events Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.71 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 01:30 PM |
Colorado Storm Central 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Dick's Sporting Goods Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.45 | 1.57 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM |
Pride SC |
Home West Valley Events Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.71 | 1.58 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avalanche | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 | 1.80 | DWWDD | -0.10 | +0.02 | 93% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at La Roca FC · Sat Dec 5 vs El Paso Locomotive B10/11 · Sun Dec 6 vs NM Rapids SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | CCV STARS | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 9 | 1.50 | DLDDW | -0.09 | +0.00 | 92% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Colorado Rush · Sun Mar 14 vs Real Colorado National · Sat Mar 20 vs Colorado Storm Central See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | La Roca FC | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 | 1.40 | DDWDD | -0.08 | +0.03 | 82% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Avalanche · Sat Dec 5 vs NM Rapids SC · Sun Dec 6 vs El Paso Locomotive B10/11 See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Arizona Arsenal | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 2 | 0.33 | LLDDL | +0.21 | +0.00 | 4% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Real Colorado National · Sun Mar 14 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Mar 20 vs Colorado EDGE See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Colorado Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs El Paso Locomotive B10/11 · Sat Jan 30 at La Roca FC · Sun Jan 31 at Avalanche See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Colorado Storm Central | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 30 at Avalanche · Sun Jan 31 at La Roca FC · Sat Feb 20 vs Avalanche See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.54 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.