Tennessee SC
ECNL Boys · Mid-America BU15 · 10 teams · Tennessee SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM
Drakes Creek Park (DCP), Field 4 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.3 against · 1.86 expected points)
| Season so far | Tennessee SC | Tennessee United SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-1-1 | 5-1-3 |
| Points per game | 2.44 | 1.78 |
| Goals for / game | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | L W L W D |
| Biggest win | 4–0 at FC Alliance TN | 5–1 at Germantown Legends |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs Tennessee United SC | 0–2 at Lobos Rush |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.28 | +0.53 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.14 | -0.06 |
Already played this season: Sat Aug 22 0–2 vs Tennessee United SC (L)
Common opponents: Lobos Rush — we 1–1; they 0–2. Germantown Legends — we 3–1; they 5–1. Louisiana Fire SC — we 3–0; they 0–0. Mississippi Rush United — we 2–1; they 4–1. FC Alliance TN — we 4–0; they 3–5. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC — we 4–0; they 4–2. Coastal Rush — we 4–1; they 1–2. Alabama FC — we 1–0; they 3–2.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Tennessee United SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 55% / draw 21% / loss 24%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Drakes Creek Park (DCP).Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Tennessee United SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Tennessee SC – Tennessee United SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.30 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.20 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 61%
- 2nd 26%
- 3rd 8%
- 4th 3%
- 5th 1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
73 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Tennessee SC to Tennessee United SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.15 · 8th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM |
Tennessee United SC 5th · 5-1-3 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Drakes Creek Park (DCP) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 2.39 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 10th · 0-1-11 · GD -41 |
Home Richard Siegel Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
4–0 | 2.91 | 2.43 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 09:30 AM |
FC Alliance TN 3rd · 8-0-4 · GD +17 |
Home Bethesda Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 2.40 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM |
Louisiana Fire SC 7th · 2-1-4 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–0 | 2.40 | 2.40 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 03:00 PM |
Mississippi Rush United 9th · 1-0-8 · GD -23 |
Away far trip
Freedom Ridge Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
3–0 | 2.71 | 2.42 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
Coastal Rush 4th · 6-1-3 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Ashton Brosnaham |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–1 | 1.76 | 2.37 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM |
Alabama FC 2nd · 9-0-3 · GD +26 |
Away far trip
Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF) |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 2.31 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM |
Germantown Legends 8th · 3-0-6 · GD -12 |
Home Bethesda Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
2–0 | 2.64 | 2.33 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM |
Lobos Rush 6th · 4-3-2 · GD +10 |
Home Bethesda Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–0 | 1.66 | 2.29 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee SC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 22 | 2.44 | WWWWW | -0.14 | -0.15 | 99% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tennessee United SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Alliance TN See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Alabama FC | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 14 | +26 | 27 | 2.25 | LLLWW | -0.34 | +0.23 | 98% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Oct 24 at Germantown Legends · Sun Oct 25 at Lobos Rush See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Alliance TN | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 40 | 23 | +17 | 24 | 2.00 | LWWWW | -0.15 | -0.16 | 87% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 31 at Tennessee United SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Coastal Rush | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 19 | 1.90 | DWLWL | -0.04 | -0.03 | 47% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 24 at Lobos Rush · Sun Oct 25 at Germantown Legends See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Tennessee United SC | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 16 | 1.78 | DWLWL | -0.06 | -0.07 | 30% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Nov 1 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Lobos Rush | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 15 | 1.67 | LDWDL | -0.09 | -0.09 | 38% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 vs Alabama FC · Sat Oct 31 at Mississippi Rush United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Louisiana Fire SC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 7 | 1.00 | LLDLW | +0.23 | -0.03 | 0% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC · Sat Oct 24 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 25 at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Germantown Legends | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 9 | 1.00 | WLLLW | +0.09 | +0.10 | 0% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Alabama FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Coastal Rush · Sat Oct 31 at Louisiana Fire SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Mississippi Rush United | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 28 | -23 | 3 | 0.33 | LLWLL | +0.45 | -0.08 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Coastal Rush · Sat Oct 24 at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC · Sun Oct 25 at FC Alliance TN See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Chattanooga Red Wolves SC | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 47 | -41 | 1 | 0.08 | LLLDL | +0.42 | -0.16 | 0% | 9.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sun Oct 25 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Oct 31 at Tennessee SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.76 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.