VSA Rush

ECNL Boys · Heartland BU15 · 6 teams · VSA Rush (all teams)

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3rd

3-1-3 record · 7 played

1.43 points per game

+0 goal diff · 12–12

LWLDWlast 5

97% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.0

+0.09 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 09:00 AM

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VSA Rush
3rd · 1.43 PPG

Arkansas Comets FC
5th · 0.83 PPG

Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip

52% 24% 24%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.1 against · 1.80 expected points)

Season so far	VSA Rush	Arkansas Comets FC
Position	3rd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-3	1-2-3
Points per game	1.43	0.83
Goals for / game	1.7	0.7
Goals against / game	1.7	1.8
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	3	3
Form (recent first)	W D L W L	L L L D W
Biggest win	3–0 vs Sporting Nebraska FC	1–0 at Sporting Nebraska FC
Worst loss	0–4 vs Gretna Elite Academy	0–3 at Sporting Iowa Central
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.04	-0.70
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.09	+0.17

Already played this season: Sun Oct 11 3–0 vs Arkansas Comets FC (W)

Common opponents: Gretna Elite Academy — we 0–4, 0–2; they 2–2. Sporting Nebraska FC — we 3–0, 2–1; they 1–0. Sporting Iowa Central — we 0–1; they 0–3. OK Energy FC — we 4–4; they 1–1, 0–2.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Arkansas Comets FC average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.5); blanked in 3 of 6.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–4 vs Gretna Elite Academy, 0–1 at Sporting Iowa Central, 0–2 at Gretna Elite Academy.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 52% / draw 24% / loss 24%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Confidence is low on their side
Arkansas Comets FC have lost 3 straight (form: WDLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Arkansas Comets FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (VSA Rush – Arkansas Comets FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.38 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Win 1.63 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Draw 1.38 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Loss 1.25 PPG	4th▼ down 1	3rd— holds	5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

97% top 4

3% below the top 4

3.0 average finish

1st <1%
2nd 20%
3rd 62%
4th 15%
5th 3%
6th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.21 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Gretna Elite Academy	2.43 (+1.00)	1st (2.32)	25 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	OK Energy FC	1.83 (+0.40)	2nd (1.80)	16 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection

How the results connect

37 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link VSA Rush to Arkansas Comets FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

19 favour us

4 even

14 favour them

+0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 5th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM	Arkansas Comets FC 5th · 1-2-3 · GD -7	Away far trip Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	1–1	1.80	1.47	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM	OK Energy FC 2nd · 3-2-1 · GD +4	Away far trip Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	27%	1–2	1.01	1.42	Upside
Sat Nov 14 09:00 AM	Sporting Iowa Central 4th · 3-0-4 · GD -6	Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	58%	2–1	1.94	1.47	Swing game
Sat Dec 12 03:00 PM	Kansas City Athletics	Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	1–1	1.55	1.48	Swing game
Sun Dec 13 09:00 AM	Union KC Soccer Club	Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	1–1	1.55	1.49	Swing game
Sat Jan 16 03:00 PM	FC Wichita	Home MidAmerican Energy Company RecPlex	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	1–1	1.55	1.49	Swing game
Sun Jan 17 07:00 AM	Kansas Rush	Home MidAmerican Energy Company RecPlex	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	1–1	1.55	1.49	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Gretna Elite Academy

+13

2.43

WDWWD

-0.24

-0.12

100%

1.1

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (6th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	VSA Rush (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (4th)	4–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Sporting Iowa Central (4th)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	VSA Rush (3rd)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting Nebraska FC See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (6th)	1–0	65%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	St. Louis Stars SC (—)	2–0	68%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Missouri Rush (—)	2–0	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC

1.83

LWWDW

-0.19

+0.03

100%

2.2

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Sporting Iowa Central (4th)	3–1
D	Sat Oct 10	at	VSA Rush (3rd)	4–4
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (6th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Gretna Elite Academy (1st)	1–2
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (4th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	VSA Rush (3rd)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	FC Wichita (—)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	2–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VSA Rush

1.43

LWLDW

+0.09

-0.12

97%

3.0

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	4–4
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Gretna Elite Academy (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (6th)	2–1
L	Fri Sep 25	at	Sporting Iowa Central (4th)	0–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (6th)	3–0
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (1st)	0–4

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 at OK Energy FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (4th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	FC Wichita (—)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Iowa Central

-6

1.29

WLLWL

+0.18

-0.03

74%

4.1

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (6th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Gretna Elite Academy (1st)	0–4
W	Fri Sep 25	vs	VSA Rush (3rd)	1–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (6th)	2–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	VSA Rush (3rd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	FC Wichita (—)	1–1	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arkansas Comets FC

-7

0.83

WDLLL

+0.17

+0.03

24%

5.0

L	Sun Oct 11	at	VSA Rush (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sporting Iowa Central (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	0–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Gretna Elite Academy (1st)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Sporting Nebraska FC (6th)	1–0
D	Sat Aug 29	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sat Nov 7 vs VSA Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sporting Nebraska FC (6th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	VSA Rush (3rd)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (4th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	FC Wichita (—)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	Kansas Rush (—)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Union KC Soccer Club (—)	1–1	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting Nebraska FC

-4

0.57

LLLWD

+0.00

+0.18

5.6

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Gretna Elite Academy (1st)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Sporting Iowa Central (4th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	VSA Rush (3rd)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	OK Energy FC (2nd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	VSA Rush (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Sporting Iowa Central (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at OK Energy FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Gretna Elite Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	OK Energy FC (2nd)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Arkansas Comets FC (5th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Gretna Elite Academy (1st)	0–1	13%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Missouri Rush (—)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	St. Louis Stars SC (—)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.52 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.