Sporting Nebraska FC

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North Oklahoma City FC, NOKC Red 5 ↗ far trip

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.2 against · 0.77 expected points)

Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 2–3 vs OK Energy FC (L)

Common opponents: Sporting Iowa Central — we 1–2, 3–0; they 3–1. VSA Rush — we 0–3, 1–2; they 4–4. Arkansas Comets FC — we 0–1; they 1–1, 2–0. Gretna Elite Academy — we 0–0; they 1–2.

• Respect their attack
  OK Energy FC score 2.3/game — well above the league's 1.5.

  Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 at VSA Rush, 0–1 vs Arkansas Comets FC, 0–0 at Gretna Elite Academy.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 19%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• Away game
  Kickoff 09:00 AM at North Oklahoma City FC.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  Arkansas Comets FC sit 5th on 0.83 PPG; we are on 0.57.

  A point moves us above Arkansas Comets FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the OK Energy FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting Nebraska FC – OK Energy FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd <1%
4. 4th 5%
5. 5th 30%
6. 6th 65%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 1.58 PPG if we win out).