Arkansas Comets FC
ECNL Boys · Heartland BU15 · 6 teams · Arkansas Comets FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.6 for, 2.1 against · 0.47 expected points)
| Season so far | Arkansas Comets FC | Gretna Elite Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-3 | 5-2-0 |
| Points per game | 0.83 | 2.43 |
| Goals for / game | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 4 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L D W | D W W D W |
| Biggest win | 1–0 at Sporting Nebraska FC | 4–0 at VSA Rush |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at Sporting Iowa Central | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.70 | +1.14 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.17 | -0.24 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 2–2 at Gretna Elite Academy (D)
Common opponents: OK Energy FC — we 1–1, 0–2; they 2–1. Sporting Nebraska FC — we 1–0; they 0–0. Sporting Iowa Central — we 0–3; they 3–1, 4–0. VSA Rush — we 0–3; they 4–0, 2–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Gretna Elite Academy score 2.4/game — well above the league's 1.5.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Gretna Elite Academy concede only 0.6/game with 4 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 vs OK Energy FC, 0–3 at Sporting Iowa Central, 0–3 at VSA Rush.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 9%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Gretna Elite Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arkansas Comets FC – Gretna Elite Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.71 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.14 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Draw 0.86 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.71 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th 20%
- 5th 46%
- 6th 30%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.07 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gretna Elite Academy | 2.43 (+1.60) | 1st (2.32) | 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | OK Energy FC | 1.83 (+1.00) | 2nd (1.80) | 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 3 | VSA Rush | 1.43 (+0.60) | 3rd (1.49) | 16 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 4 | Sporting Iowa Central | 1.29 (+0.46) | 4th (1.18) | 14 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
How the results connect
37 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Arkansas Comets FC to Gretna Elite Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.03 · 3rd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Gretna Elite Academy 1st · 5-2-0 · GD +13 |
Home NOKC Soccer Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.47 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
Sporting Nebraska FC 6th · 1-1-5 · GD -4 |
Home NOKC Soccer Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.23 | 0.84 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM |
VSA Rush 3rd · 3-1-3 · GD +0 |
Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–1 | 0.97 | 0.85 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
Sporting Iowa Central 4th · 3-0-4 · GD -6 |
Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.32 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 19 11:00 AM |
FC Wichita |
Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 1.00 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 20 11:00 AM |
Kansas Rush |
Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 1.00 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 11:00 AM |
Kansas City Athletics |
Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 1.00 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 01:00 PM |
Union KC Soccer Club |
Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 1.00 | 0.93 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gretna Elite Academy | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 17 | 2.43 | WDWWD | -0.24 | -0.12 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting Nebraska FC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | OK Energy FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 11 | 1.83 | LWWDW | -0.19 | +0.03 | 100% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | VSA Rush | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 10 | 1.43 | LWLDW | +0.09 | -0.12 | 97% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 at OK Energy FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Sporting Iowa Central | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 9 | 1.29 | WLLWL | +0.18 | -0.03 | 74% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at OK Energy FC · Sun Nov 8 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Arkansas Comets FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 5 | 0.83 | WDLLL | +0.17 | +0.03 | 24% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting Nebraska FC · Sat Nov 7 vs VSA Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Sporting Nebraska FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLWD | +0.00 | +0.18 | 5% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at OK Energy FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Gretna Elite Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.52 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.