Oregon Surf Blue

Elite Academy League 2 · Oregon U14 · 12 teams · Oregon Surf SC (all teams)

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1st

7-0-0 record · 7 played

3.00 points per game

+33 goal diff · 36–3

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.2

-0.59 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:30 PM

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Oregon Surf Blue
1st · 3.00 PPG

Saints Soccer Academy Gold
4th · 2.14 PPG

Delta Park, #5 ↗

75% 13% 12%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.3 for, 1.3 against · 2.39 expected points)

Season so far	Oregon Surf Blue	Saints Soccer Academy Gold
Position	1st	4th
Record (W-D-L)	7-0-0	5-0-2
Points per game	3.00	2.14
Goals for / game	5.1	3.1
Goals against / game	0.4	2.0
Clean sheets	4	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	W W W L W
Biggest win	9–0 at ADF Portland	4–1 vs ALBION SC Portland
Worst loss	—	1–4 at Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+3.03	+0.62
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.59	-0.63

Common opponents: Westside Metros — we 2–0; they 4–1. ADF Portland — we 9–0; they 3–1. Saints Soccer Academy — we 9–1; they 4–1. Bend FC — we 6–0; they 2–4. Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance — we 2–1; they 1–4. ALBION SC Portland — we 4–1; they 4–1.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
They arrive in form
Saints Soccer Academy Gold have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 05:30 PM at Delta Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Saints Soccer Academy Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oregon Surf Blue – Saints Soccer Academy Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.75 PPG	1st— holds	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1
Loss 2.63 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

82% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.2 average finish

1st 82%
2nd 15%
3rd 3%
4th <1%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

37 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Oregon Surf Blue to Saints Soccer Academy Gold through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

25 favour us

3 even

9 favour them

+3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.40 · 6th hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 17 06:30 PM no score posted	Soccer Chance Academy 2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +30	Home PCC Rock Creek	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	2–1	1.86	2.86	Swing game
Sat Oct 24 05:30 PM	Saints Soccer Academy Gold 4th · 5-0-2 · GD +8	Away Delta Park	●○○○○ Favorable	75%	3–1	2.39	2.80	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 10:45 AM	Westside Metros South 10th · 2-0-6 · GD -19	Away Mt View Champions Park (MVCP)	●○○○○ Favorable	95%	5–1	2.89	2.81	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 12:30 PM	Soccer Chance Academy White 5th · 4-0-3 · GD +2	Away Mountain View High School, Washington	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	3–1	2.55	2.79	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Oregon Surf Blue

+33

3.00

WWWWW

-0.59

+0.40

100%

1.2

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Bend FC (8th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	9–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	ADF Portland (9th)	9–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Westside Metros (7th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Soccer Chance Academy · Sat Oct 24 at Saints Soccer Academy Gold · Sun Oct 25 at Westside Metros South See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Westside Metros South (10th)	5–1	95%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	3–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Soccer Chance Academy

+30

2.71

DWWWW

-1.00

+1.23

100%

2.4

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Bend FC (8th)	4–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	ADF Portland (9th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	9–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Westside Metros South (10th)	8–1

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Oregon Surf Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Westside Metros · Sun Oct 25 vs Saints Soccer Academy Gold See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Westside Metros (7th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	2–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance

+18

2.63

WWLWW

-0.19

+0.03

100%

2.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Westside Metros (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Westside Metros South (10th)	3–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Bend FC (8th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oregon Surf SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Soccer Chance Academy · Sun Nov 1 at ADF Portland See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	4–0	91%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	ADF Portland (9th)	3–1	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Saints Soccer Academy Gold

2.14

WLWWW

-0.63

+0.92

51%

4.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Westside Metros (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Bend FC (8th)	2–4
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Westside Metros South (10th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	ADF Portland (9th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oregon Surf Blue · Sun Oct 25 at Soccer Chance Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Oregon Surf SC See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Soccer Chance Academy White

1.71

WLWLW

-0.47

+0.91

11%

6.3

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	ADF Portland (9th)	3–2
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Westside Metros (7th)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Westside Metros South (10th)	5–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Bend FC · Sun Oct 25 vs ALBION SC Portland · Sat Oct 31 vs Oregon Surf Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Bend FC (8th)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	2–2	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Portland

1.67

LLLLW

+0.09

-0.27

34%

5.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Westside Metros (7th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Westside Metros South (10th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Bend FC (8th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	8–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ADF Portland · Sun Oct 25 at Soccer Chance Academy White See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	ADF Portland (9th)	3–2	66%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	2–2	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Westside Metros

-3

1.33

LWWLL

-0.18

+1.04

7.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	5–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	ADF Portland (9th)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Westside Metros South (10th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Soccer Chance Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Bend FC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Bend FC (8th)	3–2	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Bend FC

-8

1.29

LWLWL

+0.86

-1.24

6.8

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	2–4
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	4–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	4–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	2–6
W	Sat Sep 12	at	ADF Portland (9th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Soccer Chance Academy White · Sun Nov 1 at Westside Metros · Tue May 25 at Westside Metros South See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Westside Metros (7th)	2–3	32%
·	Tue May 25	at	Westside Metros South (10th)	3–2	54%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	5–2	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ADF Portland

-6

1.11

WWWLL

-0.21

+1.01

8.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Westside Metros South (10th)	3–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	2–3
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	7–3
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Westside Metros (7th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	0–9
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Bend FC (8th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Portland · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	2–3	20%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	1–3	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Westside Metros South

-19

0.75

LLLWW

+0.26

-0.20

9.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	ADF Portland (9th)	4–3
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	2–5
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Westside Metros (7th)	2–6
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–8

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Surf Blue · Sat Oct 31 at Saints Soccer Academy · Tue May 25 vs Bend FC See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	3–2	57%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Bend FC (8th)	2–3	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oregon Surf SC

-23

0.00

LLLLL

+0.36

-0.34

11.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Westside Metros South (10th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	ADF Portland (9th)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Bend FC (8th)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Westside Metros (7th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance · Sun Oct 25 at Saints Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Saints Soccer Academy Gold See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	1–3	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Saints Soccer Academy

-39

0.00

LLLLL

+0.91

-1.36

11.5

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 11	at	ADF Portland (9th)	3–7
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Westside Metros (7th)	3–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	1–9
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	2–9
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	1–8

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Surf SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Westside Metros South · Tue May 25 at Bend FC See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Westside Metros South (10th)	2–3	28%
·	Tue May 25	at	Bend FC (8th)	2–5	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.69 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.