Bend FC
Elite Academy League 2 · Oregon U14 · 12 teams · Bend FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM
Bend FC Soccer Complex, West ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.6 for, 2.7 against · 1.34 expected points)
| Season so far | Bend FC | Soccer Chance Academy White |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-4 | 4-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.29 | 1.71 |
| Goals for / game | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Goals against / game | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L W L | W L W L W |
| Biggest win | 4–1 at ADF Portland | 5–2 vs Westside Metros South |
| Worst loss | 0–6 at Oregon Surf Blue | 2–4 at Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.51 | +0.01 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.86 | -0.47 |
Common opponents: ADF Portland — we 4–1; they 3–2. Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance — we 1–4; they 2–4. Oregon Surf SC — we 4–2; they 4–2. Soccer Chance Academy — we 2–4; they 0–2.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 at Oregon Surf Blue.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 39%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Westside Metros sit 7th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.29.A point moves us above Westside Metros on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Soccer Chance Academy White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Bend FC – Soccer Chance Academy White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.25 PPG |
8th— holds | 7th▲ up 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
7th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 2 | 8th— holds |
| Draw 1.25 PPG |
8th— holds | 7th▲ up 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.13 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th 4%
- 5th 10%
- 6th 28%
- 7th 25%
- 8th 25%
- 9th 6%
- 10th 1%
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.91 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon Surf Blue | 3.00 (+1.71) | 1st (2.79) | 24 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Soccer Chance Academy | 2.71 (+1.42) | 3rd (2.41) | 21 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance | 2.63 (+1.34) | 2nd (2.47) | 20 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Saints Soccer Academy Gold | 2.14 (+0.85) | 4th (1.81) | 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 5 | Soccer Chance Academy White | 1.71 (+0.42) | 6th (1.49) | 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection |
| 6 | ALBION SC Portland | 1.67 (+0.38) | 5th (1.69) | 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection |
| 7 | Westside Metros | 1.33 (+0.04) | 8th (1.28) | A point next game |
How the results connect
36 chains · 12 teams
Paths of results that link Bend FC to Soccer Chance Academy White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -1.24 · 11th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM |
Soccer Chance Academy White 5th · 4-0-3 · GD +2 |
Home Bend FC Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.34 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 12:30 PM |
Westside Metros 7th · 4-0-5 · GD -3 |
Away Mt View Champions Park (MVCP) |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
2–3 | 1.14 | 1.28 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
Westside Metros South 10th · 2-0-6 · GD -19 |
Away PCC Rock Creek |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
3–2 | 1.78 | 1.33 | Swing game |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
Saints Soccer Academy 12th · 0-0-8 · GD -39 |
Home Bend FC Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
5–2 | 2.60 | 1.44 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Oregon Surf Blue | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 3 | +33 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.59 | +0.40 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Soccer Chance Academy · Sat Oct 24 at Saints Soccer Academy Gold · Sun Oct 25 at Westside Metros South See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Soccer Chance Academy | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 6 | +30 | 19 | 2.71 | DWWWW | -1.00 | +1.23 | 100% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Oregon Surf Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Westside Metros · Sun Oct 25 vs Saints Soccer Academy Gold See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 10 | +18 | 21 | 2.63 | WWLWW | -0.19 | +0.03 | 100% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oregon Surf SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Soccer Chance Academy · Sun Nov 1 at ADF Portland See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Saints Soccer Academy Gold | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 15 | 2.14 | WLWWW | -0.63 | +0.92 | 53% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oregon Surf Blue · Sun Oct 25 at Soccer Chance Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Oregon Surf SC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Soccer Chance Academy White | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 12 | 1.71 | WLWLW | -0.47 | +0.91 | 11% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Bend FC · Sun Oct 25 vs ALBION SC Portland · Sat Oct 31 vs Oregon Surf Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | ALBION SC Portland | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 15 | 1.67 | LLLLW | +0.09 | -0.27 | 32% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ADF Portland · Sun Oct 25 at Soccer Chance Academy White See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Westside Metros | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 12 | 1.33 | LWWLL | -0.18 | +1.04 | 0% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Soccer Chance Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Bend FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Bend FC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 9 | 1.29 | LWLWL | +0.86 | -1.24 | 4% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Soccer Chance Academy White · Sun Nov 1 at Westside Metros · Tue May 25 at Westside Metros South See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | ADF Portland | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 10 | 1.11 | WWWLL | -0.21 | +1.01 | 0% | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Portland · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Westside Metros South | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 34 | -19 | 6 | 0.75 | LLLWW | +0.26 | -0.20 | 0% | 9.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Surf Blue · Sat Oct 31 at Saints Soccer Academy · Tue May 25 vs Bend FC See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Oregon Surf SC | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 30 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.36 | -0.34 | 0% | 11.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance · Sun Oct 25 at Saints Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Saints Soccer Academy Gold See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Saints Soccer Academy | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 50 | -39 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.91 | -1.36 | 0% | 11.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Surf SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Westside Metros South · Tue May 25 at Bend FC See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.69 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.