ADF Portland

Elite Academy League 2 · Oregon U14 · 12 teams · ADF Portland (all teams)

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9th

3-1-5 record · 9 played

1.11 points per game

-6 goal diff · 23–29

WWWLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.8

-0.21 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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ADF Portland
9th · 1.11 PPG

ALBION SC Portland
6th · 1.67 PPG

Tigard High School, Soccer Turf ↗ · turf

20% 14% 66%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.3 for, 3.8 against · 0.75 expected points)

Season so far	ADF Portland	ALBION SC Portland
Position	9th	6th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-5	5-0-4
Points per game	1.11	1.67
Goals for / game	2.6	3.2
Goals against / game	3.2	2.4
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	L L W W W	W L L L L
Biggest win	7–3 vs Saints Soccer Academy	8–1 vs Saints Soccer Academy
Worst loss	0–9 vs Oregon Surf Blue	0–5 at Soccer Chance Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.55	+0.51
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.21	+0.09

Common opponents: Bend FC — we 1–4; they 6–2. Saints Soccer Academy Gold — we 1–3; they 1–4. Soccer Chance Academy — we 1–1; they 0–5. Oregon Surf Blue — we 0–9; they 1–4. Westside Metros — we 4–1; they 4–2. Oregon Surf SC — we 4–1; they 2–1. Saints Soccer Academy — we 7–3; they 8–1. Westside Metros South — we 3–4; they 5–0.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–9 vs Oregon Surf Blue.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 20%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Tigard High School.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Bend FC sit 8th on 1.29 PPG; we are on 1.11.
A point moves us above Bend FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Portland game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ADF Portland – ALBION SC Portland) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.00 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	9th— holds
Win 1.30 PPG	8th▲ up 1	7th▲ up 2	9th— holds
Draw 1.10 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	9th— holds
Loss 1.00 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	9th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

8.8 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th <1%
6th 1%
7th 4%
8th 16%
9th 67%
10th 12%
11th
12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.45 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Oregon Surf Blue	3.00 (+1.89)	1st (2.79)	23 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Soccer Chance Academy	2.71 (+1.60)	3rd (2.41)	20 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance	2.63 (+1.52)	2nd (2.47)	19 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Saints Soccer Academy Gold	2.14 (+1.03)	4th (1.81)	14 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Soccer Chance Academy White	1.71 (+0.60)	6th (1.49)	9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6	ALBION SC Portland	1.67 (+0.56)	5th (1.69)	9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7	Westside Metros	1.33 (+0.22)	8th (1.28)	5 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 5 for their projection
8	Bend FC	1.29 (+0.18)	7th (1.44)	A point next game

How the results connect

54 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link ADF Portland to ALBION SC Portland through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

18 favour us

6 even

30 favour them

-1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.01 · 3rd hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	ALBION SC Portland 6th · 5-0-4 · GD +7	Away Tigard High School · turf	●●●●● Very tough	20%	2–3	0.75	1.08	Upside
Sun Nov 1 12:00 AM	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance 3rd · 7-0-1 · GD +18	Home TBD	●●●●● Very tough	15%	1–3	0.60	1.03	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Oregon Surf Blue

+33

3.00

WWWWW

-0.59

+0.40

100%

1.2

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Bend FC (8th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	9–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	ADF Portland (9th)	9–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Westside Metros (7th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Soccer Chance Academy · Sat Oct 24 at Saints Soccer Academy Gold · Sun Oct 25 at Westside Metros South See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Westside Metros South (10th)	5–1	95%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	3–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Soccer Chance Academy

+30

2.71

DWWWW

-1.00

+1.23

100%

2.4

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Bend FC (8th)	4–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	ADF Portland (9th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	9–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Westside Metros South (10th)	8–1

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Oregon Surf Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Westside Metros · Sun Oct 25 vs Saints Soccer Academy Gold See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Westside Metros (7th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	2–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance

+18

2.63

WWLWW

-0.19

+0.03

100%

2.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Westside Metros (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Westside Metros South (10th)	3–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Bend FC (8th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oregon Surf SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Soccer Chance Academy · Sun Nov 1 at ADF Portland See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	4–0	91%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	ADF Portland (9th)	3–1	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Saints Soccer Academy Gold

2.14

WLWWW

-0.63

+0.92

51%

4.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Westside Metros (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Bend FC (8th)	2–4
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Westside Metros South (10th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	ADF Portland (9th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oregon Surf Blue · Sun Oct 25 at Soccer Chance Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Oregon Surf SC See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Soccer Chance Academy White

1.71

WLWLW

-0.47

+0.91

12%

6.2

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	ADF Portland (9th)	3–2
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Westside Metros (7th)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Westside Metros South (10th)	5–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Bend FC · Sun Oct 25 vs ALBION SC Portland · Sat Oct 31 vs Oregon Surf Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Bend FC (8th)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	2–2	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Portland

1.67

LLLLW

+0.09

-0.27

34%

5.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Westside Metros (7th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Westside Metros South (10th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Bend FC (8th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	8–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ADF Portland · Sun Oct 25 at Soccer Chance Academy White See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	ADF Portland (9th)	3–2	66%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	2–2	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Westside Metros

-3

1.33

LWWLL

-0.18

+1.04

7.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	5–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	ADF Portland (9th)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Westside Metros South (10th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Soccer Chance Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Bend FC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Bend FC (8th)	3–2	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Bend FC

-8

1.29

LWLWL

+0.86

-1.24

6.8

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	2–4
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	4–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	4–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	2–6
W	Sat Sep 12	at	ADF Portland (9th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Soccer Chance Academy White · Sun Nov 1 at Westside Metros · Tue May 25 vs Saints Soccer Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Westside Metros (7th)	2–3	32%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	5–2	84%
·	Tue May 25	at	Westside Metros South (10th)	3–2	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ADF Portland

-6

1.11

WWWLL

-0.21

+1.01

8.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Westside Metros South (10th)	3–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	2–3
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	7–3
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Westside Metros (7th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	0–9
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Bend FC (8th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Portland · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	2–3	20%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	1–3	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Westside Metros South

-19

0.75

LLLWW

+0.26

-0.20

9.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	ADF Portland (9th)	4–3
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	2–5
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Westside Metros (7th)	2–6
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–8

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Surf Blue · Sat Oct 31 at Saints Soccer Academy · Tue May 25 vs Bend FC See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	3–2	57%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Bend FC (8th)	2–3	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oregon Surf SC

-23

0.00

LLLLL

+0.36

-0.34

11.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Westside Metros South (10th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	ADF Portland (9th)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Bend FC (8th)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Westside Metros (7th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance · Sun Oct 25 at Saints Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Saints Soccer Academy Gold See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Saints Soccer Academy (12th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	1–3	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Saints Soccer Academy

-39

0.00

LLLLL

+0.91

-1.36

11.5

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Saints Soccer Academy Gold (4th)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 11	at	ADF Portland (9th)	3–7
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Westside Metros (7th)	3–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (3rd)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (1st)	1–9
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	2–9
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Soccer Chance Academy White (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	ALBION SC Portland (6th)	1–8

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Surf SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Westside Metros South · Tue May 25 at Bend FC See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Oregon Surf SC (11th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Westside Metros South (10th)	2–3	28%
·	Tue May 25	at	Bend FC (8th)	2–5	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.69 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.