Soccer Chance Academy

Elite Academy League 2 · Oregon U11 · 10 teams · Soccer Chance Academy (all teams)

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2nd

5-0-0 record · 5 played

3.00 points per game

+37 goal diff · 40–3

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.7

-1.66 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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Soccer Chance Academy
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Bend FC
3rd · 2.50 PPG

Bend FC Soccer Complex, East 1 ↗

64% 15% 21%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.4 for, 2.0 against · 2.08 expected points)

Season so far	Soccer Chance Academy	Bend FC
Position	2nd	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-0	5-0-1
Points per game	3.00	2.50
Goals for / game	8.0	4.0
Goals against / game	0.6	1.2
Clean sheets	2	2
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	W L W W W
Biggest win	15–0 vs Oregon Surf SC	7–1 at Oregon Surf SC
Worst loss	—	1–3 at Oregon Surf Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+3.95	+1.45
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.66	-1.65

Common opponents: Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance — we 5–1; they 3–1. Oregon Surf SC — we 15–0; they 7–1. Saints Soccer Academy — we 12–1; they 5–2. ADF Portland — we 6–1; they 4–0.

Game plan

Hard to break down
Bend FC concede only 1.2/game with 2 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Swing game — small margins
Win 64% / draw 15% / loss 21%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Bend FC Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Westside Metros South sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.
A win moves us above Westside Metros South on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Bend FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Soccer Chance Academy – Bend FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.67 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.50 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

33% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.7 average finish

1st 33%
2nd 64%
3rd 2%
4th <1%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Westside Metros South	3.00 (+0.00)	1st (2.79)	Win next game

How the results connect

22 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Soccer Chance Academy to Bend FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

18 favour us

1 even

3 favour them

+4.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.34 · 5th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 3 05:00 PM no score posted	Westside Metros South 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +49	Home Multnomah University	●●●●○ Tough	37%	2–3	1.27	2.71	Upside
Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM	Bend FC 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +17	Away Bend FC Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	3–2	2.08	2.62	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM	ALBION SC Portland 4th · 3-1-2 · GD -1	Home Portland Adventist Academy	●○○○○ Favorable	93%	5–1	2.83	2.65	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM	Oregon Surf Blue 6th · 2-1-2 · GD -4	Home Portland Adventist Academy	●○○○○ Favorable	95%	6–1	2.89	2.67	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Westside Metros South

+49

3.00

WWWWW

-1.47

+1.56

100%

1.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	ADF Portland (8th)	6–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	14–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	8–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Westside Metros (5th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	10–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	7–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 at Soccer Chance Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Surf Blue · Tue May 25 vs Bend FC See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	3–2	47%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	7–1	98%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Bend FC (3rd)	4–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Soccer Chance Academy

+37

3.00

WWWWW

-1.66

+1.34

100%

1.7

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	ADF Portland (8th)	6–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Westside Metros (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	12–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	15–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Westside Metros South · Sat Oct 24 at Bend FC · Sun Oct 25 vs ALBION SC Portland See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Westside Metros South (1st)	2–3	37%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Bend FC (3rd)	3–2	64%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	5–1	93%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	6–1	95%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Bend FC

+17

2.50

WWWLW

-1.65

+2.96

100%

3.0

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	7–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	5–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	ADF Portland (8th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Soccer Chance Academy · Sun Nov 1 at Westside Metros · Tue May 25 at Westside Metros South See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	2–3	21%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Westside Metros (5th)	2–1	55%
·	Tue May 25	at	Westside Metros South (1st)	1–4	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Portland

-1

1.67

LWWDW

-0.43

+0.82

41%

5.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	6–1
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	5–5
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Westside Metros (5th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Westside Metros South (1st)	1–7
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Bend FC (3rd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Oregon Surf Blue · Sat Oct 24 vs ADF Portland · Sun Oct 25 at Soccer Chance Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	ADF Portland (8th)	3–2	56%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–5	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Westside Metros

1.50

LWLLW

-0.10

+1.45

22%

5.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	5–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	ADF Portland (8th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Westside Metros South (1st)	0–7
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	5–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	5–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Bend FC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Bend FC (3rd)	1–2	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oregon Surf Blue

-4

1.40

WLDWL

-0.78

+1.44

6.8

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Bend FC (3rd)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	ADF Portland (8th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Westside Metros (5th)	2–5
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	4–3

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs ALBION SC Portland · Sat Oct 24 at Saints Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Westside Metros South See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	4–2	63%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Westside Metros South (1st)	1–7	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–6	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance

-4

1.29

LLWLW

+0.96

-2.82

33%

5.1

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Westside Metros (5th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Westside Metros South (1st)	1–8
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Bend FC (3rd)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–5

Next: Sun Nov 1 at ADF Portland · Tue May 25 vs Oregon Surf SC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	ADF Portland (8th)	2–2	43%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	5–1	93%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ADF Portland

-9

0.71

DLWLL

+0.37

-0.20

7.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Westside Metros South (1st)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–6
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	8–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Westside Metros (5th)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	3–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Bend FC (3rd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Portland · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	2–3	28%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	2–2	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Saints Soccer Academy

-33

0.29

LLDLL

+1.31

-2.81

9.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Westside Metros (5th)	1–5
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–12
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	5–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Bend FC (3rd)	2–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Westside Metros South (1st)	0–10
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	ADF Portland (8th)	3–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oregon Surf Blue · Sat Oct 31 at Oregon Surf SC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	2–4	23%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	4–2	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oregon Surf SC

-53

0.00

LLLLL

+1.24

-1.49

9.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	1–6
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Westside Metros South (1st)	0–14
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	ADF Portland (8th)	0–8
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Bend FC (3rd)	1–7
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Westside Metros (5th)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	0–15
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	3–4

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Saints Soccer Academy · Tue May 25 at Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	2–4	21%
·	Tue May 25	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	1–5	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.20 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.