Oregon Surf Blue

Elite Academy League 2 · Oregon U11 · 10 teams · Oregon Surf SC (all teams)

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6th

2-1-2 record · 5 played

1.40 points per game

-4 goal diff · 12–16

WLDWLlast 5

4% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.8

-0.78 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:30 PM

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Oregon Surf Blue
6th · 1.40 PPG

Saints Soccer Academy
9th · 0.29 PPG

Delta Park, #5 ↗

63% 14% 23%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.1 for, 2.7 against · 2.02 expected points)

Season so far	Oregon Surf Blue	Saints Soccer Academy
Position	6th	9th
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-2	0-2-5
Points per game	1.40	0.29
Goals for / game	2.4	1.7
Goals against / game	3.2	6.4
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	L W D L W	L L D L L
Biggest win	3–1 vs Bend FC	—
Worst loss	0–4 vs Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance	1–12 at Soccer Chance Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.73	-2.80
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.78	+1.31

Common opponents: Westside Metros — we 2–5; they 1–5. ADF Portland — we 3–3; they 3–3. Bend FC — we 3–1; they 2–5. Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance — we 0–4; they 0–5.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Saints Soccer Academy concede 6.4/game; worst result 1–12 at Soccer Chance Academy.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 63% / draw 14% / loss 23%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 03:30 PM at Delta Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Westside Metros sit 5th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.40.
A point moves us above Westside Metros on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Saints Soccer Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oregon Surf Blue – Saints Soccer Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.67 PPG	5th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 2	5th▲ up 1
Win 1.67 PPG	5th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 2	5th▲ up 1
Draw 1.33 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Loss 1.17 PPG	7th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–2 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

4% top 4

96% below the top 4

6.8 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd <1%
4th 3%
5th 10%
6th 12%
7th 56%
8th 14%
9th 4%
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.11 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Westside Metros South	3.00 (+1.60)	1st (2.79)	20 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Soccer Chance Academy	3.00 (+1.60)	2nd (2.67)	20 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Bend FC	2.50 (+1.10)	3rd (2.00)	16 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
4	ALBION SC Portland	1.67 (+0.27)	4th (1.50)	9 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection
5	Westside Metros	1.50 (+0.10)	6th (1.44)	A point next game

How the results connect

27 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Oregon Surf Blue to Saints Soccer Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us

3 even

11 favour them

+0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.44 · 4th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 10 01:00 PM no score posted	ALBION SC Portland 4th · 3-1-2 · GD -1	Home Tualatin Hills Rec Center	●●●●○ Tough	39%	2–2	1.35	1.39	Upside
Sat Oct 24 03:30 PM	Saints Soccer Academy 9th · 0-2-5 · GD -33	Away Delta Park	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	4–2	2.02	1.48	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM	Westside Metros South 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +49	Away Snyder Park	●●●●● Very tough	1%	1–7	0.04	1.30	Upside
Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM	Soccer Chance Academy 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +37	Away Portland Adventist Academy	●●●●● Very tough	2%	1–6	0.08	1.17	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Westside Metros South

+49

3.00

WWWWW

-1.47

+1.56

100%

1.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	ADF Portland (8th)	6–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	14–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	8–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Westside Metros (5th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	10–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	7–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 at Soccer Chance Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Surf Blue · Tue May 25 vs Bend FC See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	3–2	47%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	7–1	98%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Bend FC (3rd)	4–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Soccer Chance Academy

+37

3.00

WWWWW

-1.66

+1.34

100%

1.7

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	ADF Portland (8th)	6–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Westside Metros (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	12–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	15–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Westside Metros South · Sat Oct 24 at Bend FC · Sun Oct 25 vs ALBION SC Portland See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Westside Metros South (1st)	2–3	37%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Bend FC (3rd)	3–2	64%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	5–1	93%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	6–1	95%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Bend FC

+17

2.50

WWWLW

-1.65

+2.96

100%

3.0

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	7–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	5–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	ADF Portland (8th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Soccer Chance Academy · Sun Nov 1 at Westside Metros · Tue May 25 at Westside Metros South See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	2–3	21%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Westside Metros (5th)	2–1	55%
·	Tue May 25	at	Westside Metros South (1st)	1–4	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Portland

-1

1.67

LWWDW

-0.43

+0.82

41%

5.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	6–1
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	5–5
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Westside Metros (5th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Westside Metros South (1st)	1–7
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Bend FC (3rd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Oregon Surf Blue · Sat Oct 24 vs ADF Portland · Sun Oct 25 at Soccer Chance Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	ADF Portland (8th)	3–2	56%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–5	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Westside Metros

1.50

LWLLW

-0.10

+1.45

22%

5.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	5–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	ADF Portland (8th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Westside Metros South (1st)	0–7
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	5–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	5–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Bend FC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Bend FC (3rd)	1–2	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oregon Surf Blue

-4

1.40

WLDWL

-0.78

+1.44

6.8

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Bend FC (3rd)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	ADF Portland (8th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Westside Metros (5th)	2–5
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	4–3

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs ALBION SC Portland · Sat Oct 24 at Saints Soccer Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Westside Metros South See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	4–2	63%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Westside Metros South (1st)	1–7	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–6	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance

-4

1.29

LLWLW

+0.96

-2.82

33%

5.1

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Westside Metros (5th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Westside Metros South (1st)	1–8
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Bend FC (3rd)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–5

Next: Sun Nov 1 at ADF Portland · Tue May 25 vs Oregon Surf SC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	ADF Portland (8th)	2–2	43%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	5–1	93%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ADF Portland

-9

0.71

DLWLL

+0.37

-0.20

7.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Westside Metros South (1st)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–6
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	8–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Westside Metros (5th)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	3–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Bend FC (3rd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Portland · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	2–3	28%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	2–2	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Saints Soccer Academy

-33

0.29

LLDLL

+1.31

-2.81

9.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Westside Metros (5th)	1–5
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	1–12
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	5–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Bend FC (3rd)	2–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Westside Metros South (1st)	0–10
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	ADF Portland (8th)	3–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oregon Surf Blue · Sat Oct 31 at Oregon Surf SC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	2–4	23%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Oregon Surf SC (10th)	4–2	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oregon Surf SC

-53

0.00

LLLLL

+1.24

-1.49

9.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	ALBION SC Portland (4th)	1–6
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Westside Metros South (1st)	0–14
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	ADF Portland (8th)	0–8
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Bend FC (3rd)	1–7
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Westside Metros (5th)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Soccer Chance Academy (2nd)	0–15
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Oregon Surf Blue (6th)	3–4

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Saints Soccer Academy · Tue May 25 at Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Saints Soccer Academy (9th)	2–4	21%
·	Tue May 25	at	Oregon Valley Futbol Alliance (7th)	1–5	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.20 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.