BVBIA DFW

Elite Academy League · Texas U12 · 5 teams · BVBIA DFW (all teams)

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1st

3-0-0 record · 3 played

3.00 points per game

+16 goal diff · 18–2

WWWlast 3

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.4

-1.51 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 08:00 AM

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BVBIA DFW
1st · 3.00 PPG

ALBION SC Dallas (1)
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Beacon Soccer Park, Field 2 ↗

53% 16% 32%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.5 for, 2.8 against · 1.73 expected points)

Season so far	BVBIA DFW	ALBION SC Dallas (1)
Position	1st	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-0	2-0-0
Points per game	3.00	3.00
Goals for / game	6.0	7.5
Goals against / game	0.7	0.5
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W	W W
Biggest win	9–1 vs ALBION SC Dallas	9–1 vs Steel United TX (STL)
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.35	+2.24
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.51	-2.50

Common opponents: Steel United TX (STL) — we 3–1; they 9–1. ALBION SC Dallas — we 9–1; they 6–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
ALBION SC Dallas (1) score 7.5/game — well above the league's 3.4.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
ALBION SC Dallas (1) concede only 0.5/game with 1 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Swing game — small margins
Win 53% / draw 16% / loss 32%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Early kickoff
Game time 08:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Dallas (1) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BVBIA DFW – ALBION SC Dallas (1)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.25 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–2 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

62% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.4 average finish

1st 62%
2nd 36%
3rd 2%
4th
5th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

4 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link BVBIA DFW to ALBION SC Dallas (1) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

1 favour them

+1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 4th hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 08:00 AM	ALBION SC Dallas (1) 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +14	Home Beacon Soccer Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	3–2	1.73	2.68	Swing game
Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM	Steel United TX (STL) 5th · 0-0-3 · GD -18	Home Beacon Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	6–1	2.91	2.73	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM	ALBION SC Dallas (1) 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +14	Away TBD	●●●●○ Tough	40%	3–3	1.36	2.50	Upside
Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM	ALBION SC Dallas 4th · 0-0-3 · GD -17	Away TBD	●○○○○ Favorable	92%	5–1	2.81	2.55	Bank it
Sun Apr 25 08:00 AM	ALBION SC Dallas (2) 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +5	Home Beacon Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	4–2	2.34	2.52	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

BVBIA DFW

+16

3.00

WWW

-1.51

+0.02

100%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (4th)	9–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Steel United TX (STL) (5th)	3–1
W	Fri Sep 18	at	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (3rd)	6–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Dallas (1) · Sun Nov 22 vs Steel United TX (STL) · Sat Apr 10 at ALBION SC Dallas (1) See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (2nd)	3–2	53%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Steel United TX (STL) (5th)	6–1	96%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (2nd)	3–3	40%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	ALBION SC Dallas (4th)	5–1	92%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (3rd)	4–2	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Dallas (1)

+14

3.00

-2.50

+0.16

100%

1.7

W	Sun Aug 30	at	ALBION SC Dallas (4th)	6–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Steel United TX (STL) (5th)	9–1

Next: Fri Oct 16 vs ALBION SC Dallas · Fri Oct 23 vs ALBION SC Dallas (2) · Sat Oct 24 at Steel United TX (STL) See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 16 (no score yet)	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (4th)	7–1	95%
·	Fri Oct 23	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (3rd)	4–2	72%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Steel United TX (STL) (5th)	6–1	93%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	BVBIA DFW (1st)	2–3	32%
·	Fri Nov 13	at	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (3rd)	4–2	60%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	BVBIA DFW (1st)	3–3	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Dallas (2)

2.00

WLW

-0.85

+0.37

100%

2.9

W	Sat Sep 26	at	Steel United TX (STL) (5th)	8–0
L	Fri Sep 18	vs	BVBIA DFW (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (4th)	5–2

Next: Fri Oct 23 at ALBION SC Dallas (1) · Fri Oct 30 at ALBION SC Dallas · Fri Nov 13 vs ALBION SC Dallas (1) See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	at	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (2nd)	2–4	17%
·	Fri Oct 30	at	ALBION SC Dallas (4th)	4–2	78%
·	Fri Nov 13	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (2nd)	2–4	26%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Steel United TX (STL) (5th)	5–1	88%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	BVBIA DFW (1st)	2–4	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Dallas

-17

0.00

LLL

+1.78

+0.00

61%

4.4

L	Sat Oct 3	at	BVBIA DFW (1st)	1–9
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (2nd)	0–6
L	Sat Aug 29	at	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (3rd)	2–5

Next: Fri Oct 16 at ALBION SC Dallas (1) · Fri Oct 23 vs Steel United TX (STL) · Fri Oct 30 vs ALBION SC Dallas (2) See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 16 (no score yet)	at	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (2nd)	1–7	2%
·	Fri Oct 23	vs	Steel United TX (STL) (5th)	3–2	53%
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (3rd)	2–4	12%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Steel United TX (STL) (5th)	3–3	40%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	BVBIA DFW (1st)	1–5	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Steel United TX (STL)

-18

0.00

LLL

+1.72

+0.09

39%

4.6

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	BVBIA DFW (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (3rd)	0–8
L	Sat Aug 29	at	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (2nd)	1–9

Next: Fri Oct 23 at ALBION SC Dallas · Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Dallas (1) · Sat Nov 14 vs ALBION SC Dallas See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	at	ALBION SC Dallas (4th)	2–3	31%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (2nd)	1–6	3%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (4th)	3–3	44%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (3rd)	1–5	6%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	BVBIA DFW (1st)	1–6	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.