ALBION SC Dallas (1)
Elite Academy League · Texas U12 · 5 teams · ALBION SC Dallas (all teams)
Next game — Fri Oct 23, 07:30 PM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.7 for, 2.6 against · 2.27 expected points)
| Season so far | ALBION SC Dallas (1) | ALBION SC Dallas (2) |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-0 | 2-0-1 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 7.5 | 4.3 |
| Goals against / game | 0.5 | 2.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W | W L W |
| Biggest win | 9–1 vs Steel United TX (STL) | 8–0 at Steel United TX (STL) |
| Worst loss | — | 0–6 vs BVBIA DFW |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.24 | +0.63 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -2.50 | -0.85 |
Common opponents: Steel United TX (STL) — we 9–1; they 8–0. ALBION SC Dallas — we 6–0; they 5–2.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 4–2.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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What a win does
BVBIA DFW sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.A win moves us above BVBIA DFW on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Friday goes…
Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Dallas (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Dallas (1) – ALBION SC Dallas (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 1 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.33 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–2 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 38%
- 2nd 55%
- 3rd 7%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BVBIA DFW | 3.00 (+0.00) | 1st (2.52) | Win next game |
How the results connect
4 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link ALBION SC Dallas (1) to ALBION SC Dallas (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
5 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.16 · 2nd hardest of 5
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Oct 16 07:30 PM no score posted |
ALBION SC Dallas 4th · 0-0-3 · GD -17 |
Home Beacon Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
7–1 | 2.89 | 2.96 | Bank it |
| Fri Oct 23 07:30 PM |
ALBION SC Dallas (2) 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +5 |
Home Beacon Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
4–2 | 2.27 | 2.79 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 24 06:00 PM |
Steel United TX (STL) 5th · 0-0-3 · GD -18 |
Away Craig Ranch Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
6–1 | 2.82 | 2.79 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 08:00 AM |
BVBIA DFW 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +16 |
Away Beacon Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
2–3 | 1.11 | 2.51 | Upside |
| Fri Nov 13 07:30 PM |
ALBION SC Dallas (2) 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +5 |
Away Beacon Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
4–2 | 1.93 | 2.43 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
BVBIA DFW 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +16 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
3–3 | 1.47 | 2.31 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BVBIA DFW | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | +16 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -1.51 | +0.02 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Dallas (1) · Sun Nov 22 vs Steel United TX (STL) · Sat Apr 10 at ALBION SC Dallas (1) See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | ALBION SC Dallas (1) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | +14 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -2.50 | +0.16 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 16 vs ALBION SC Dallas · Fri Oct 23 vs ALBION SC Dallas (2) · Sat Oct 24 at Steel United TX (STL) See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | ALBION SC Dallas (2) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | -0.85 | +0.37 | 100% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 23 at ALBION SC Dallas (1) · Fri Oct 30 at ALBION SC Dallas · Fri Nov 13 vs ALBION SC Dallas (1) See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | ALBION SC Dallas | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.78 | +0.00 | 61% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 16 at ALBION SC Dallas (1) · Fri Oct 23 vs Steel United TX (STL) · Fri Oct 30 vs ALBION SC Dallas (2) See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Steel United TX (STL) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 20 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.72 | +0.09 | 39% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 23 at ALBION SC Dallas · Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Dallas (1) · Sat Nov 14 vs ALBION SC Dallas See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.