UFA Norcross
Elite Academy League · Southeast U19 · 8 teams · UFA Norcross (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:00 PM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.3 against · 1.97 expected points)
| Season so far | UFA Norcross | UFA Gainesville |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-0-1 | 3-1-4 |
| Points per game | 2.57 | 1.25 |
| Goals for / game | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | W W D L L |
| Biggest win | 4–1 at BVBIA Georgia | 3–0 vs ALBION SC Nashville |
| Worst loss | 1–5 at ALBION SC Atlanta | 1–4 at ALBION SC Atlanta |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.65 | -0.24 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.06 | -0.18 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 3–1 at UFA Gainesville (W)
Common opponents: Covered Bridge Soccer Club — we 4–2, 2–1; they 2–4. ALBION SC Atlanta — we 1–5; they 1–4. All-IN FC — we 2–1; they 1–2, 2–2. BVBIA Georgia — we 4–1; they 2–1.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 59% / draw 20% / loss 21%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the UFA Gainesville game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (UFA Norcross – UFA Gainesville) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.63 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.63 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.38 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.25 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 19%
- 2nd 69%
- 3rd 12%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC Atlanta | 2.78 (+0.21) | 1st (2.54) | 21 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
How the results connect
45 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link UFA Norcross to UFA Gainesville through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.34 · 8th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
UFA Gainesville 5th · 3-1-4 · GD -3 |
Home Pinckneyville Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.97 | 2.50 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 04:00 PM |
All-IN FC 4th · 3-1-4 · GD -2 |
Away Gary Pirkle Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.74 | 2.41 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM |
ALBION SC Nashville 7th · 0-2-5 · GD -12 |
Home Pinckneyville Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.32 | 2.40 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Nashville 7th · 0-2-5 · GD -12 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.07 | 2.37 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 13 11:00 AM |
ALBION SC Atlanta Metro 6th · 2-1-3 · GD +0 |
Home Pinckneyville Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.97 | 2.34 | Swing game |
| Tue May 25 08:00 PM |
BVBIA Georgia 8th · 0-0-7 · GD -18 |
Home Pinckneyville Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.49 | 2.35 | Bank it |
| Tue May 25 11:00 AM |
ALBION SC Atlanta 1st · 8-1-0 · GD +24 |
Home Pinckneyville Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
2–2 | 1.18 | 2.27 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | ALBION SC Atlanta | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 16 | +24 | 25 | 2.78 | WWDWW | -0.52 | +0.12 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at UFA Gainesville · Sat Nov 14 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Nov 21 vs All-IN FC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | UFA Norcross | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWW | +0.06 | -0.34 | 100% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs UFA Gainesville · Sat Nov 14 at All-IN FC · Sun Nov 15 vs ALBION SC Nashville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Covered Bridge Soccer Club | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 21 | +5 | 15 | 1.88 | WWLWW | -0.03 | -0.23 | 98% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sun Nov 8 vs All-IN FC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | All-IN FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 10 | 1.25 | WLDLL | +0.04 | +0.05 | 35% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Atlanta Metro · Sun Nov 8 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 vs UFA Norcross See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | UFA Gainesville | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 | 1.25 | LLDWW | -0.18 | +0.20 | 32% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs ALBION SC Atlanta Metro · Sun Nov 1 at UFA Norcross · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Atlanta See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | ALBION SC Atlanta Metro | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | +0 | 7 | 1.17 | DLLWL | +0.09 | -0.04 | 35% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at UFA Gainesville · Sat Nov 7 at All-IN FC · Sun Nov 8 at ALBION SC Nashville See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | ALBION SC Nashville | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 2 | 0.29 | LLLDL | +0.45 | -0.23 | 1% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sun Nov 1 at BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 7 vs Covered Bridge Soccer Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | BVBIA Georgia | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 32 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.61 | -0.21 | 0% | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sun Nov 1 vs ALBION SC Nashville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.