Covered Bridge Soccer Club
Elite Academy League · Southeast U19 · 8 teams · Covered Bridge Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.9 for, 2.1 against · 2.50 expected points)
| Season so far | Covered Bridge Soccer Club | BVBIA Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-3 | 0-0-7 |
| Points per game | 1.88 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.6 | 4.6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L W W | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs ALBION SC Nashville | — |
| Worst loss | 1–5 at ALBION SC Atlanta | 2–5 at ALBION SC Atlanta Metro |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.53 | -1.53 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.03 | +0.61 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 5–3 at BVBIA Georgia (W)
Common opponents: UFA Norcross — we 2–4, 1–2; they 1–4. UFA Gainesville — we 4–2; they 1–2. ALBION SC Atlanta — we 1–5; they 2–5, 3–6. All-IN FC — we 5–2; they 2–5. ALBION SC Atlanta Metro — we 4–3; they 2–5.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
BVBIA Georgia concede 4.6/game; worst result 2–5 at ALBION SC Atlanta Metro.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 80% chance; likely score 4–2.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Confidence is low on their side
BVBIA Georgia have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the BVBIA Georgia game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Covered Bridge Soccer Club – BVBIA Georgia) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.78 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.67 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–2 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 13%
- 3rd 76%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.36 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC Atlanta | 2.78 (+0.90) | 1st (2.54) | 24 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | UFA Norcross | 2.57 (+0.69) | 2nd (2.27) | 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
How the results connect
45 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Covered Bridge Soccer Club to BVBIA Georgia through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.23 · 7th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
BVBIA Georgia 8th · 0-0-7 · GD -18 |
Home Joe Cowan Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
4–2 | 2.50 | 1.94 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 07:00 PM |
ALBION SC Nashville 7th · 0-2-5 · GD -12 |
Away 1 - Bethesda Sports Park Soccer Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
3–1 | 2.05 | 1.95 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
All-IN FC 4th · 3-1-4 · GD -2 |
Home Joe Cowan Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
3–2 | 1.98 | 1.96 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM |
ALBION SC Atlanta 1st · 8-1-0 · GD +24 |
Home Joe Cowan Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
2–3 | 0.99 | 1.88 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 06:00 PM |
UFA Gainesville 5th · 3-1-4 · GD -3 |
Away Gainesville High School · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–2 | 1.62 | 1.86 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM |
ALBION SC Atlanta Metro 6th · 2-1-3 · GD +0 |
Home Joe Cowan Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
3–2 | 1.91 | 1.86 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | ALBION SC Atlanta | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 16 | +24 | 25 | 2.78 | WWDWW | -0.52 | +0.12 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at UFA Gainesville · Sat Nov 14 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Nov 21 vs All-IN FC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | UFA Norcross | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWW | +0.06 | -0.34 | 100% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs UFA Gainesville · Sat Nov 14 at All-IN FC · Sun Nov 15 vs ALBION SC Nashville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Covered Bridge Soccer Club | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 21 | +5 | 15 | 1.88 | WWLWW | -0.03 | -0.23 | 98% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sun Nov 8 vs All-IN FC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | All-IN FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 10 | 1.25 | WLDLL | +0.04 | +0.05 | 32% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Atlanta Metro · Sun Nov 8 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 vs UFA Norcross See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | UFA Gainesville | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 | 1.25 | LLDWW | -0.18 | +0.20 | 32% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs ALBION SC Atlanta Metro · Sun Nov 1 at UFA Norcross · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Atlanta See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | ALBION SC Atlanta Metro | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | +0 | 7 | 1.17 | DLLWL | +0.09 | -0.04 | 37% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at UFA Gainesville · Sat Nov 7 at All-IN FC · Sun Nov 8 at ALBION SC Nashville See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | ALBION SC Nashville | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 2 | 0.29 | LLLDL | +0.45 | -0.23 | 0% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sun Nov 1 at BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 7 vs Covered Bridge Soccer Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | BVBIA Georgia | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 32 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.61 | -0.21 | 0% | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sun Nov 1 vs ALBION SC Nashville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.