UFA Gainesville
Elite Academy League · Southeast U19 · 8 teams · UFA Gainesville (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:00 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.3 against · 0.84 expected points)
| Season so far | UFA Gainesville | UFA Norcross |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-4 | 6-0-1 |
| Points per game | 1.25 | 2.57 |
| Goals for / game | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Goals against / game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W D L L | W W W W W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs ALBION SC Nashville | 4–1 at BVBIA Georgia |
| Worst loss | 1–4 at ALBION SC Atlanta | 1–5 at ALBION SC Atlanta |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.24 | +0.65 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.18 | +0.06 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 1–3 vs UFA Norcross (L)
Common opponents: All-IN FC — we 1–2, 2–2; they 2–1. Covered Bridge Soccer Club — we 2–4; they 4–2, 2–1. ALBION SC Atlanta — we 1–4; they 1–5. BVBIA Georgia — we 2–1; they 4–1.
Game plan
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 21%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
They arrive in form
UFA Norcross have won 5 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
-
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Pinckneyville Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
All-IN FC sit 4th on 1.25 PPG; we are on 1.25.A point moves us above All-IN FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the UFA Norcross game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (UFA Gainesville – UFA Norcross) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.11 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.44 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.22 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.11 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th 30%
- 5th 34%
- 6th 31%
- 7th 3%
- 8th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC Atlanta | 2.78 (+1.53) | 1st (2.54) | 29 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | UFA Norcross | 2.57 (+1.32) | 2nd (2.27) | 26 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Covered Bridge Soccer Club | 1.88 (+0.63) | 3rd (1.86) | 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 4 | All-IN FC | 1.25 (+0.00) | 4th (1.25) | A point next game |
How the results connect
45 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link UFA Gainesville to UFA Norcross through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.20 · 1st hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 19 06:30 PM no score posted |
ALBION SC Atlanta Metro 6th · 2-1-3 · GD +0 |
Home Gainesville High School · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
2–2 | 1.46 | 1.27 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
UFA Norcross 2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +6 |
Away Pinckneyville Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.84 | 1.23 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 06:30 PM |
ALBION SC Atlanta 1st · 8-1-0 · GD +24 |
Home Gainesville High School · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–3 | 0.71 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM |
ALBION SC Atlanta Metro 6th · 2-1-3 · GD +0 |
Away Field B - Dresden Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
2–2 | 1.15 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 06:00 PM |
Covered Bridge Soccer Club 3rd · 5-0-3 · GD +5 |
Home Gainesville High School · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.19 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 06:30 PM |
BVBIA Georgia 8th · 0-0-7 · GD -18 |
Home Gainesville High School · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
3–1 | 2.07 | 1.24 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC Atlanta | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 16 | +24 | 25 | 2.78 | WWDWW | -0.52 | +0.12 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at UFA Gainesville · Sat Nov 14 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Nov 21 vs All-IN FC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | UFA Norcross | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWW | +0.06 | -0.34 | 100% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs UFA Gainesville · Sat Nov 14 at All-IN FC · Sun Nov 15 vs ALBION SC Nashville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Covered Bridge Soccer Club | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 21 | +5 | 15 | 1.88 | WWLWW | -0.03 | -0.23 | 98% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sun Nov 8 vs All-IN FC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | All-IN FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 10 | 1.25 | WLDLL | +0.04 | +0.05 | 35% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Atlanta Metro · Sun Nov 8 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 vs UFA Norcross See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | UFA Gainesville | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 | 1.25 | LLDWW | -0.18 | +0.20 | 32% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs ALBION SC Atlanta Metro · Sun Nov 1 at UFA Norcross · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Atlanta See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | ALBION SC Atlanta Metro | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | +0 | 7 | 1.17 | DLLWL | +0.09 | -0.04 | 35% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at UFA Gainesville · Sat Nov 7 at All-IN FC · Sun Nov 8 at ALBION SC Nashville See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | ALBION SC Nashville | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 2 | 0.29 | LLLDL | +0.45 | -0.23 | 1% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs BVBIA Georgia · Sun Nov 1 at BVBIA Georgia · Sat Nov 7 vs Covered Bridge Soccer Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | BVBIA Georgia | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 32 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.61 | -0.21 | 0% | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Covered Bridge Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC Nashville · Sun Nov 1 vs ALBION SC Nashville See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.