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All-IN FC

Elite Academy League · Southeast U15 · 8 teams · All-IN FC (all teams)

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1st
6-2-0 record · 8 played
2.50 points per game
+21 goal diff · 26–5
DWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.4
-0.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 01:00 PM

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All-IN FC
1st · 2.50 PPG
vs

Gary Pirkle Park, Field #1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.3 for, 0.7 against · 2.68 expected points)

Season so farAll-IN FCALBION SC Atlanta Metro
Position1st6th
Record (W-D-L)6-2-01-1-5
Points per game2.500.57
Goals for / game3.31.1
Goals against / game0.62.3
Clean sheets40
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W W W DL L W L D
Biggest win7–0 at UFA Norcross3–2 vs ALBION SC Atlanta
Worst loss—1–3 vs BVBIA Georgia
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.81-0.78
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.25+0.11

Already played this season: Sun Sep 27 3–1 at ALBION SC Atlanta Metro (W)

Common opponents: UFA Gainesville — we 2–1, 3–0; they 0–2. BVBIA Georgia — we 1–1; they 1–3. UFA Norcross — we 7–0; they 1–1. ALBION SC Nashville — we 0–0; they 1–3. Covered Bridge Soccer Club — we 7–2; they 1–2. ALBION SC Atlanta — we 3–0; they 3–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs ALBION SC Nashville.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 86% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Atlanta Metro game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (All-IN FC – ALBION SC Atlanta Metro) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.56 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
2.56 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.22 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

65% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.4 average finish
  1. 1st 65%
  2. 2nd 32%
  3. 3rd 3%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

48 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link All-IN FC to ALBION SC Atlanta Metro through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

41 favour us
4 even
3 favour them
+3.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 3–0 2–3 0–0 3–1 1–1 3–1 2–1 2–0 3–0 7–2 2–1 7–0 1–1 2–1 2–1 1–2 1–0 All-IN FC 1st ALBION SC Atlanta 7th ALBION SC Nashville 2nd BVBIA Georgia 3rd UFA Gainesville 5th Covered Bridge Socc… 4th UFA Norcross 8th ALBION SC Atlanta M… 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 4th 8th Aug 29 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.30 · 5th hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
ALBION SC Atlanta Metro
6th · 1-1-5 · GD -8
Home
Gary Pirkle Park
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–0 2.68 2.52 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
Covered Bridge Soccer Club
4th · 4-2-2 · GD +1
Away
Joe Cowan Park
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–1 2.32 2.50 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
04:00 PM
UFA Norcross
8th · 0-1-6 · GD -34
Home
Gary Pirkle Park
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
6–0 2.97 2.54 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Atlanta
7th · 1-1-7 · GD -7
Away
North Mount Carmel Park
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–0 2.42 2.53 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
08:00 AM
ALBION SC Nashville
2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +14
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.50 2.45 Swing game
Tue May 25
02:00 PM
BVBIA Georgia
3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +15
Away
Friendly City Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.71 2.40 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 All-IN FC 8620 265+21 202.50 DWWWW -0.25 -0.30 100% 1.4
2 ALBION SC Nashville 7520 206+14 172.43 WDDWW +0.02 -0.40 100% 1.8
3 BVBIA Georgia 7412 249+15 131.86 WLWWL -0.49 +0.08 92% 3.3
4 Covered Bridge Soccer Club 8422 1918+1 141.75 WDWLW -0.34 +0.53 31% 4.6
5 UFA Gainesville 9504 2022-2 151.67 WWLLW +0.37 -0.64 77% 4.0
6 ALBION SC Atlanta Metro 7115 816-8 40.57 DLWLL +0.11 +0.11 0% 6.6
7 ALBION SC Atlanta 9117 1219-7 40.44 LLLLL +0.42 -0.44 0% 6.4
8 UFA Norcross 7016 236-34 10.14 DLLLL +0.28 +0.66 0% 8.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.08 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.