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ALBION SC Nashville

Elite Academy League · Southeast U15 · 8 teams · ALBION SC Nashville (all teams)

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2nd
5-2-0 record · 7 played
2.43 points per game
+14 goal diff · 20–6
WDDWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.8
+0.02 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 07:30 AM

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ALBION SC Nashville
2nd · 2.43 PPG
vs
BVBIA Georgia
3rd · 1.86 PPG

1 - Bethesda Sports Park Soccer Fields, Field ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.7 against · 1.73 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC NashvilleBVBIA Georgia
Position2nd3rd
Record (W-D-L)5-2-04-1-2
Points per game2.431.86
Goals for / game2.93.4
Goals against / game0.91.3
Clean sheets32
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W W D D WL W W L W
Biggest win7–0 vs UFA Gainesville13–0 vs UFA Norcross
Worst loss—1–2 vs Covered Bridge Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.39+1.28
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.02-0.49

Common opponents: ALBION SC Atlanta — we 3–0, 2–1; they 2–1, 1–0. ALBION SC Atlanta Metro — we 3–1; they 3–1. UFA Gainesville — we 7–0, 3–2; they 3–4. All-IN FC — we 0–0; they 1–1. Covered Bridge Soccer Club — we 2–2; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    BVBIA Georgia score 3.4/game — well above the league's 2.1.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at All-IN FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 51% / draw 20% / loss 29%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 07:30 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    All-IN FC sit 1st on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.43.

    A win moves us above All-IN FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the BVBIA Georgia game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Nashville – BVBIA Georgia) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.50 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.25 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.13 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

35% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.8 average finish
  1. 1st 35%
  2. 2nd 54%
  3. 3rd 10%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 All-IN FC 2.50 (+0.07) 1st (2.40) Win next game

How the results connect

53 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Nashville to BVBIA Georgia through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

27 favour us
11 even
15 favour them
+0.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 1–2 0–1 0–0 1–1 3–1 1–3 2–2 2–1 3–2 4–3 3–0 7–0 1–2 1–3 3–4 ALBION SC Nashville 2nd ALBION SC Atlanta 7th All-IN FC 1st ALBION SC Atlanta M… 6th Covered Bridge Socc… 4th UFA Gainesville 5th BVBIA Georgia 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 4th 8th Aug 29 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.40 · 6th hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
07:30 AM		 BVBIA Georgia
3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +15		 Home
1 - Bethesda Sports Park Soccer Fields		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–1 1.73 2.34 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
07:30 AM		 BVBIA Georgia
3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +15		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.44 2.24 Upside
Sat Nov 7
03:00 PM		 Covered Bridge Soccer Club
4th · 4-2-2 · GD +1		 Home
1 - Bethesda Sports Park Soccer Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 3–1 2.35 2.25 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
08:00 AM		 ALBION SC Atlanta Metro
6th · 1-1-5 · GD -8		 Home
2 - Bethesda Sports Park Soccer Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 3–0 2.56 2.28 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 UFA Norcross
8th · 0-1-6 · GD -34		 Away
Pinckneyville Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 4–0 2.91 2.33 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
12:00 AM		 UFA Norcross
8th · 0-1-6 · GD -34		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 5–0 2.95 2.38 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
08:00 AM		 All-IN FC
1st · 6-2-0 · GD +21		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 1–1 1.26 2.30 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 All-IN FC 8620 265+21 202.50 DWWWW -0.25 -0.30 100% 1.4
2 ALBION SC Nashville 7520 206+14 172.43 WDDWW +0.02 -0.40 100% 1.8
3 BVBIA Georgia 7412 249+15 131.86 WLWWL -0.49 +0.08 93% 3.3
4 Covered Bridge Soccer Club 8422 1918+1 141.75 WDWLW -0.34 +0.53 32% 4.6
5 UFA Gainesville 9504 2022-2 151.67 WWLLW +0.37 -0.64 75% 4.0
6 ALBION SC Atlanta Metro 7115 816-8 40.57 DLWLL +0.11 +0.11 0% 6.6
7 ALBION SC Atlanta 9117 1219-7 40.44 LLLLL +0.42 -0.44 0% 6.4
8 UFA Norcross 7016 236-34 10.14 DLLLL +0.28 +0.66 0% 8.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.08 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.