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Highline Premier FC

Elite Academy League · PACNW U16 · 17 teams · Highline Premier FC (all teams)

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14th
0-1-3 record · 4 played
0.25 points per game
-8 goal diff · 4–12
LLLDlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.6
-0.63 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Highline Premier FC
14th · 0.25 PPG
vs

Delridge Playfield, Delridge South ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 1.0 for, 2.9 against · 0.43 expected points)

Season so farHighline Premier FCWestern WA Surf Academy Blue
Position14th3rd
Record (W-D-L)0-1-35-0-1
Points per game0.252.50
Goals for / game1.02.8
Goals against / game3.01.2
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)D L L LW W W W W
Biggest win—5–1 at Western WA Surf Academy White
Worst loss1–6 vs Atletico Rojo0–2 at Sparta Tacoma
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.17+1.33
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.63+0.82

Common opponents: Atletico Rojo — we 1–6; they 2–1. Emerald City FC — we 0–2; they 3–1.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Western WA Surf Academy Blue concede only 1.2/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Emerald City FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 10%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Western WA Surf Academy Blue have won 5 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Valencia CF Academy - Seattle sit 13th on 0.40 PPG; we are on 0.25.

    A point moves us above Valencia CF Academy - Seattle on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Western WA Surf Academy Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Highline Premier FC – Western WA Surf Academy Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.20 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 16th▼ down 2
Win
0.80 PPG
13th▲ up 1 13th▲ up 1 15th▼ down 1
Draw
0.40 PPG
13th▲ up 1 13th▲ up 1 16th▼ down 2
Loss
0.20 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 16th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 14th even if every rival loses, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 18%
  14. 14th 22%
  15. 15th 25%
  16. 16th 22%
  17. 17th 8%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sparta Tacoma 2.50 (+2.25) 1st (2.36) 37 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 2.50 (+2.25) 3rd (2.22) 37 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 Western WA Surf Academy Blue 2.50 (+2.25) 2nd (2.34) 37 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Mt. Rainier 2.50 (+2.25) 5th (1.93) 37 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 BVBIA Washington 1.83 (+1.58) 4th (1.96) 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
6 Emerald City FC 1.50 (+1.25) 7th (1.65) 22 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
7 Harbor SC 1.50 (+1.25) 9th (1.45) 22 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
8 Atletico Rojo 1.43 (+1.18) 6th (1.79) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
9 Western WA Surf Academy White 1.40 (+1.15) 11th (1.40) 20 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
10 Everett FC 1.25 (+1.00) 8th (1.57) 18 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
11 ALBION SC Hawaii 1.17 (+0.92) 12th (1.25) 17 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
12 Warriors Sports Academy 1.00 (+0.75) 13th (0.76) 14 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
13 Valencia CF Academy - Seattle 0.40 (+0.15) 15th (0.60) A point next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Highline Premier FC to Western WA Surf Academy Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
9 favour them
-5.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 1–3 1–6 1–2 7–0 4–3 2–0 1–1 1–1 1–5 1–4 2–4 0–7 1–2 2–3 1–5 3–14 Highline Premier FC 14th Emerald City FC 6th Atletico Rojo 8th Valencia CF Academy… 13th Warriors Sports Aca… 12th Sparta Tacoma 1st Western WA Surf Aca… 9th Mt. Rainier 4th Western WA Surf Aca… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.27 · 3rd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Western WA Surf Academy Blue
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +10
Home
Delridge Playfield
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.43 0.29 Upside
Sun Nov 8
08:30 AM
Seattle Celtic
15th · 0-1-5 · GD -31
Away
Valley Ridge Park
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.08 0.59 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
05:30 PM
ALBION SC Washington
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -13
Away
Sirius Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.36 0.70 Upside
Sat Nov 21
10:30 AM
BVBIA Washington
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +7
Home
Evergreen High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–2 0.55 0.68 Upside
Sun Nov 22
01:00 PM
Washington East Surf Columbia Basin
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +13
Home
Delridge Playfield
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–3 0.35 0.64 Upside
Sat Jan 9
07:20 PM
Everett FC
10th · 1-2-1 · GD +4
Away
Lincoln Field
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.46 0.62 Upside
Sun Jan 17
12:00 AM
Harbor SC
7th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–2 0.97 0.66 Upside
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
Mt. Rainier
4th · 5-0-1 · GD +9
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.63 0.65 Upside
Sun Jan 31
04:00 PM
Sting Soccer Club - ID
16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
HUB Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.66 0.65 Upside
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
Western WA Surf Academy White
9th · 2-1-2 · GD +4
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.55 0.65 Upside
Sat Feb 13
12:00 AM
Sparta Tacoma
1st · 5-0-1 · GD +21
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–4 0.14 0.61 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sparta Tacoma 6501 298+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.44 -0.07 95% 2.1
2 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 4310 152+13 102.50 WDWW -0.59 +0.05 83% 3.0
3 Western WA Surf Academy Blue 6501 177+10 152.50 WWWWW +0.82 -0.71 94% 2.3
4 Mt. Rainier 6501 178+9 152.50 LWWWW -1.02 +0.41 39% 5.2
5 BVBIA Washington 6321 169+7 111.83 WDWWL +0.80 -0.61 47% 4.9
6 Emerald City FC 6303 2218+4 91.50 LLWLW +0.23 -0.35 8% 7.5
7 Harbor SC 4202 78-1 61.50 LWWL +0.34 -0.13 2% 9.3
8 Atletico Rojo 7313 2512+13 101.43 WLWLD -0.00 -0.18 23% 6.1
9 Western WA Surf Academy White 5212 1511+4 71.40 DWLWL -0.77 +0.31 1% 9.7
10 Everett FC 4121 128+4 51.25 DWLD +0.15 -0.13 5% 8.2
11 ALBION SC Hawaii 6213 911-2 71.17 WLLDL +0.08 -0.06 0% 10.7
12 Warriors Sports Academy 3102 721-14 31.00 WLL +0.11 +0.15 0% 13.9
13 Valencia CF Academy - Seattle 5023 319-16 20.40 DLLLD +0.74 -0.24 0% 14.7
14 Highline Premier FC 4013 412-8 10.25 LLLD -0.63 +0.27 0% 14.6
15 Seattle Celtic 6015 132-31 10.17 LDLLL +1.00 -0.36 0% 16.4
16 Sting Soccer Club - ID 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.02 ——
17 ALBION SC Washington 4004 518-13 00.00 LLLL +0.15 +0.05 0% 15.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.48 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.