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Everett FC

Elite Academy League · PACNW U16 · 17 teams · Everett FC (all teams)

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10th
1-2-1 record · 4 played
1.25 points per game
+4 goal diff · 12–8
DWLDlast 4
5% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.2
+0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 07:40 PM

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Everett FC
10th · 1.25 PPG
vs

Lincoln Field, Lincoln Field ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.7 for, 2.6 against · 0.95 expected points)

Season so farEverett FCWashington East Surf Columbia Basin
Position10th2nd
Record (W-D-L)1-2-13-1-0
Points per game1.252.50
Goals for / game3.03.8
Goals against / game2.00.5
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)D L W DW W D W
Biggest win7–0 vs ALBION SC Washington6–0 at Valencia CF Academy - Seattle
Worst loss0–3 at Harbor SC—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.61+1.67
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.15-0.59

Common opponents: BVBIA Washington — we 3–3; they 2–2. Atletico Rojo — we 2–2; they 4–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Washington East Surf Columbia Basin score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Washington East Surf Columbia Basin concede only 0.5/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Harbor SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 25%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Western WA Surf Academy White sit 9th on 1.40 PPG; we are on 1.25.

    A point moves us above Western WA Surf Academy White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Washington East Surf Columbia Basin game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Everett FC – Washington East Surf Columbia Basin) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG
11th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 2
Win
1.60 PPG
6th▲ up 4 7th▲ up 3 10th— holds
Draw
1.20 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 11th▼ down 1
Loss
1.00 PPG
11th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
5% top 4
95% below the top 4
8.2 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 15%
  8. 8th 18%
  9. 9th 15%
  10. 10th 16%
  11. 11th 9%
  12. 12th 5%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sparta Tacoma 2.50 (+1.25) 1st (2.36) 33 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
2 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 2.50 (+1.25) 3rd (2.22) 33 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 Western WA Surf Academy Blue 2.50 (+1.25) 2nd (2.34) 33 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
4 Mt. Rainier 2.50 (+1.25) 5th (1.93) 33 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
5 BVBIA Washington 1.83 (+0.58) 4th (1.96) 23 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
6 Emerald City FC 1.50 (+0.25) 7th (1.65) A point next game
7 Harbor SC 1.50 (+0.25) 9th (1.45) A point next game
8 Atletico Rojo 1.43 (+0.18) 6th (1.79) A point next game
9 Western WA Surf Academy White 1.40 (+0.15) 11th (1.40) A point next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Everett FC to Washington East Surf Columbia Basin through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–3 2–2 2–2 0–4 8–1 0–3 0–3 0–3 Everett FC 10th BVBIA Washington 5th Atletico Rojo 8th Harbor SC 7th Seattle Celtic 15th Washington East Sur… 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.13 · 10th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
07:40 PM
Washington East Surf Columbia Basin
2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +13
Home
Lincoln Field
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–2 0.95 1.19 Upside
Sun Oct 25
07:20 PM
Valencia CF Academy - Seattle
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -16
Home
Lincoln Field
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–1 2.62 1.43 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
06:20 PM
Sparta Tacoma
1st · 5-0-1 · GD +21
Home
Lincoln Field
●●●●● Very tough
23%
2–3 0.84 1.34 Upside
Sat Nov 14
05:00 PM
Western WA Surf Academy White
9th · 2-1-2 · GD +4
Away
Central Park
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.42 1.35 Upside
Sun Nov 15
02:00 PM
Mt. Rainier
4th · 5-0-1 · GD +9
Away
Game Farm Park
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.13 1.33 Upside
Sat Jan 9
07:20 PM
Highline Premier FC
14th · 0-1-3 · GD -8
Home
Lincoln Field
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.41 1.44 Bank it
Sun Jan 10
07:20 PM
Seattle Celtic
15th · 0-1-5 · GD -31
Home
Lincoln Field
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
4–0 2.86 1.57 Bank it
Sat Jan 23
07:20 PM
Warriors Sports Academy
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -14
Home
Lincoln Field
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
5–2 2.68 1.66 Bank it
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
Emerald City FC
6th · 3-0-3 · GD +4
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–3 1.31 1.63 Upside
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
Western WA Surf Academy Blue
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +10
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.83 1.58 Upside
Sat Feb 20
04:00 PM
Sting Soccer Club - ID
16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
Real Life Ministries
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–2 1.57 1.57 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sparta Tacoma 6501 298+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.44 -0.07 95% 2.1
2 Washington East Surf Columbia Basin 4310 152+13 102.50 WDWW -0.59 +0.05 85% 2.9
3 Western WA Surf Academy Blue 6501 177+10 152.50 WWWWW +0.82 -0.71 94% 2.3
4 Mt. Rainier 6501 178+9 152.50 LWWWW -1.02 +0.41 37% 5.3
5 BVBIA Washington 6321 169+7 111.83 WDWWL +0.80 -0.61 46% 4.8
6 Emerald City FC 6303 2218+4 91.50 LLWLW +0.23 -0.35 8% 7.6
7 Harbor SC 4202 78-1 61.50 LWWL +0.34 -0.13 2% 9.4
8 Atletico Rojo 7313 2512+13 101.43 WLWLD -0.00 -0.18 22% 6.1
9 Western WA Surf Academy White 5212 1511+4 71.40 DWLWL -0.77 +0.31 2% 9.5
10 Everett FC 4121 128+4 51.25 DWLD +0.15 -0.13 5% 8.2
11 ALBION SC Hawaii 6213 911-2 71.17 WLLDL +0.08 -0.06 0% 10.8
12 Warriors Sports Academy 3102 721-14 31.00 WLL +0.11 +0.15 0% 13.9
13 Valencia CF Academy - Seattle 5023 319-16 20.40 DLLLD +0.74 -0.24 0% 14.7
14 Highline Premier FC 4013 412-8 10.25 LLLD -0.63 +0.27 0% 14.7
15 Seattle Celtic 6015 132-31 10.17 LDLLL +1.00 -0.36 0% 16.4
16 Sting Soccer Club - ID 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.02 ——
17 ALBION SC Washington 4004 518-13 00.00 LLLL +0.15 +0.05 0% 14.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.48 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.