Sozo

Elite Academy League · PACNW U11 · 16 teams · Sozos (all teams)

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6th

3-2-1 record · 6 played

1.83 points per game

+7 goal diff · 15–8

DWWLWlast 5

27% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.6

+0.45 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:10 PM

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Sozo
6th · 1.83 PPG

Atletico Azul
10th · 1.33 PPG

Woodridge Elementary School, Field 1 ↗

55% 21% 24%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.3 against · 1.86 expected points)

Season so far	Sozo	Atletico Azul
Position	6th	10th
Record (W-D-L)	3-2-1	2-2-2
Points per game	1.83	1.33
Goals for / game	2.5	1.5
Goals against / game	1.3	2.0
Clean sheets	3	1
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	W L W W D	W D D L W
Biggest win	5–0 vs United Sports FC	4–1 at Seattle Celtic Green
Worst loss	1–4 at Seattle Celtic	0–6 vs Washington Rush
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.86	-0.33
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.45	-0.21

Common opponents: Harbor SC — we 0–0; they 1–1. Seattle Celtic Green — we 4–0; they 4–1. United Sports FC — we 5–0; they 2–3.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at Harbor SC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 55% / draw 21% / loss 24%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 03:10 PM at Woodridge Elementary School.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Western WA Surf Academy Blue sit 5th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.83.
A win moves us above Western WA Surf Academy Blue on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Atletico Azul game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sozo – Atletico Azul) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.00 PPG	4th▲ up 2	4th▲ up 2	6th— holds
Win 2.00 PPG	4th▲ up 2	4th▲ up 2	6th— holds
Draw 1.71 PPG	6th— holds	4th▲ up 2	7th▼ down 1
Loss 1.57 PPG	6th— holds	5th▲ up 1	9th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st

27% top 4

73% below the top 4

5.6 average finish

1st 1%
2nd 4%
3rd 9%
4th 14%
5th 23%
6th 20%
7th 14%
8th 8%
9th 5%
10th 2%
11th 1%
12th <1%
13th
14th
15th
16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.30 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Seattle Celtic	3.00 (+1.17)	1st (2.41)	19 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Sound FC	2.25 (+0.42)	3rd (2.15)	12 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
3	Washington Rush	2.17 (+0.34)	2nd (2.16)	11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
4	Atletico Oro	2.00 (+0.17)	4th (1.97)	Win next game
5	Western WA Surf Academy Blue	2.00 (+0.17)	6th (1.69)	Win next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Sozo to Atletico Azul through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

+3.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.17 · 8th hardest of 16

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:10 PM	Atletico Azul 10th · 2-2-2 · GD -3	Away Woodridge Elementary School	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.86	1.84	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 12:00 AM	Sound FC 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +18	Away TBD	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–2	0.82	1.71	Upside
Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM	Warriors Sports Academy 16th · 0-1-5 · GD -26	Home Sozo Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	93%	4–0	2.84	1.84	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM	Washington Rush 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +15	Away Mill Creek Sports Park	●●●●● Very tough	25%	1–2	0.93	1.75	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Seattle Celtic

+11

3.00

WWWWW

+0.52

+0.68

96%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Atletico Oro (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sozo (6th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Sparta Tacoma (12th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Harbor SC (9th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Highline Premier FC (8th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Western WA Surf Academy Blue · Sun Nov 1 at Washington Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs Mt. Rainier See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (5th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Washington Rush (3rd)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Mt. Rainier (11th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	United Sports FC (7th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Sound FC (2nd)	2–2	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sound FC

+18

2.25

WLWW

-1.45

+0.47

85%

2.8

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Atletico Rojo (13th)	7–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Seattle Celtic Green (15th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Highline Premier FC (8th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Warriors Sports Academy (16th)	10–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Harbor SC · Sun Oct 25 at Atletico Oro · Sat Oct 31 vs Sozo See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Harbor SC (9th)	3–1	62%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Atletico Oro (4th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sozo (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Atletico Azul (10th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Mt. Rainier (11th)	3–1	83%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Seattle Celtic (1st)	2–2	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Washington Rush

+15

2.17

WDWLW

+0.11

+0.14

89%

2.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Harbor SC (9th)	6–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Atletico Oro (4th)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (5th)	6–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Mt. Rainier (11th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	United Sports FC (7th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Atletico Azul (10th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA Washington · Sun Nov 1 vs Seattle Celtic · Sat Nov 7 at Highline Premier FC See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	BVBIA Washington (14th)	5–1	91%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Seattle Celtic (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Highline Premier FC (8th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Sozo (6th)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atletico Oro

2.00

WDWWL

+0.68

-0.21

65%

4.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Seattle Celtic (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Washington Rush (3rd)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mt. Rainier (11th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Sozo (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Highline Premier FC (8th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sparta Tacoma · Sun Oct 25 vs Sound FC · Sat Oct 31 at Western WA Surf Academy Blue See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sparta Tacoma (12th)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sound FC (2nd)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (5th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	BVBIA Washington (14th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Warriors Sports Academy (16th)	3–0	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Western WA Surf Academy Blue

2.00

DWWLW

-0.62

+0.23

21%

6.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Warriors Sports Academy (16th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Washington Rush (3rd)	0–6
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Atletico Rojo (13th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Seattle Celtic Green (15th)	4–2
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Sparta Tacoma (12th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Seattle Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs Atletico Oro · Sat Nov 7 at Harbor SC See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Seattle Celtic (1st)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Atletico Oro (4th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Harbor SC (9th)	2–2	32%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Atletico Azul (10th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	BVBIA Washington (14th)	3–2	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sozo

1.83

DWWLW

+0.45

+0.17

27%

5.6

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sparta Tacoma (12th)	4–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Seattle Celtic (1st)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	United Sports FC (7th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Seattle Celtic Green (15th)	4–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Atletico Oro (4th)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Harbor SC (9th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atletico Azul · Sat Oct 31 at Sound FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Warriors Sports Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Atletico Azul (10th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sound FC (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (16th)	4–0	93%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Washington Rush (3rd)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

United Sports FC

1.50

LWLWL

-0.44

-0.31

8.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Highline Premier FC (8th)	2–3
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Atletico Rojo (13th)	4–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Sozo (6th)	0–5
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Atletico Azul (10th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Washington Rush (3rd)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (16th)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Mt. Rainier · Sun Nov 1 vs BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 14 at Seattle Celtic See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mt. Rainier (11th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	BVBIA Washington (14th)	3–2	66%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Seattle Celtic (1st)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Seattle Celtic Green (15th)	3–2	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Highline Premier FC

-7

1.50

LWWLW

+0.91

-0.54

8.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	United Sports FC (7th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Harbor SC (9th)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sound FC (2nd)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sparta Tacoma (12th)	4–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Seattle Celtic (1st)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Atletico Oro (4th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atletico Rojo · Sat Oct 31 at Seattle Celtic Green · Sat Nov 7 vs Washington Rush See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Atletico Rojo (13th)	2–2	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Seattle Celtic Green (15th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Washington Rush (3rd)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	BVBIA Washington (14th)	2–2	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Harbor SC

1.33

WLDWL

+0.48

+0.07

8.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Washington Rush (3rd)	2–6
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Highline Premier FC (8th)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Atletico Azul (10th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Seattle Celtic (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Mt. Rainier (11th)	7–2
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sozo (6th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sound FC · Sun Oct 25 at Warriors Sports Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sound FC (2nd)	1–3	22%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Warriors Sports Academy (16th)	3–1	85%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (5th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sparta Tacoma (12th)	2–3	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atletico Azul

-3

1.33

WLDDW

-0.21

+0.99

11.3

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Seattle Celtic Green (15th)	4–1
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Mt. Rainier (11th)	0–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Harbor SC (9th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	United Sports FC (7th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Atletico Rojo (13th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Washington Rush (3rd)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sozo · Sat Oct 31 vs Sparta Tacoma · Sat Nov 7 at Sound FC See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sozo (6th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sparta Tacoma (12th)	2–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Sound FC (2nd)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (5th)	1–2	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mt. Rainier

-5

1.33

LDLDW

+0.05

+0.46

10.9

W	Sat Oct 17	at	BVBIA Washington (14th)	2–1
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Atletico Azul (10th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Atletico Oro (4th)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Washington Rush (3rd)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Harbor SC (9th)	2–7
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Seattle Celtic Green (15th)	3–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs United Sports FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Atletico Rojo · Sat Nov 7 at Seattle Celtic See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	United Sports FC (7th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Atletico Rojo (13th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Seattle Celtic (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sound FC (2nd)	1–3	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sparta Tacoma

1.17

WLLWL

-0.34

-0.17

8.2

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sozo (6th)	3–4
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Warriors Sports Academy (16th)	5–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Seattle Celtic (1st)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Highline Premier FC (8th)	3–4
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	BVBIA Washington (14th)	8–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (5th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Atletico Oro · Sat Oct 31 at Atletico Azul · Sat Nov 7 at Atletico Rojo See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Atletico Oro (4th)	2–2	37%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Atletico Azul (10th)	2–2	55%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Atletico Rojo (13th)	4–2	78%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Harbor SC (9th)	3–2	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atletico Rojo

-13

0.67

LLDLL

-0.34

-0.28

13.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sound FC (2nd)	1–7
L	Sun Oct 11	at	United Sports FC (7th)	1–4
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (16th)	4–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (5th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Atletico Azul (10th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	BVBIA Washington (14th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Highline Premier FC · Sat Oct 31 at Mt. Rainier · Sat Nov 7 vs Sparta Tacoma See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Highline Premier FC (8th)	2–2	29%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Mt. Rainier (11th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sparta Tacoma (12th)	2–4	12%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Seattle Celtic Green (15th)	2–3	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BVBIA Washington

-8

0.60

LLWLL

-0.99

+0.44

14.3

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Mt. Rainier (11th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Seattle Celtic Green (15th)	3–7
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (16th)	6–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sparta Tacoma (12th)	1–8
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Atletico Rojo (13th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Washington Rush · Sun Nov 1 at United Sports FC · Sun Nov 8 at Atletico Oro See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Washington Rush (3rd)	1–5	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	United Sports FC (7th)	2–3	20%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Atletico Oro (4th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Highline Premier FC (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (5th)	2–3	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Seattle Celtic Green

-9

0.50

LLWLL

+0.17

-1.27

12.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Atletico Azul (10th)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sound FC (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	BVBIA Washington (14th)	7–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Sozo (6th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (5th)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Mt. Rainier (11th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Warriors Sports Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Highline Premier FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Atletico Rojo See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Warriors Sports Academy (16th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Highline Premier FC (8th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Atletico Rojo (13th)	3–2	60%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	United Sports FC (7th)	2–3	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Warriors Sports Academy

-26

0.17

LLDLL

+0.00

+0.30

15.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Western WA Surf Academy Blue (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sparta Tacoma (12th)	0–5
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Atletico Rojo (13th)	4–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	BVBIA Washington (14th)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sound FC (2nd)	0–10
L	Sun Sep 13	at	United Sports FC (7th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle Celtic Green · Sun Oct 25 vs Harbor SC · Sun Nov 8 at Sozo See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Seattle Celtic Green (15th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Harbor SC (9th)	1–3	6%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Sozo (6th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Atletico Oro (4th)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.