Mt. Rainier
Elite Academy League · PACNW U11 · 16 teams · Mt. Rainier (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:30 AM
Lakeridge Middle School, Turf field ↗ · turf
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.0 against · 1.31 expected points)
| Season so far | Mt. Rainier | United Sports FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-2-2 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W D L D L | L W L W L |
| Biggest win | 3–2 vs Seattle Celtic Green | 3–0 vs Warriors Sports Academy |
| Worst loss | 2–7 vs Harbor SC | 0–5 at Sozo |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.50 | -0.14 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.05 | -0.44 |
Common opponents: Washington Rush — we 1–1; they 2–3. Atletico Azul — we 0–0; they 3–2.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Atletico Oro, 0–0 vs Atletico Azul.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 37%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Atletico Azul sit 10th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.33.A point moves us above Atletico Azul on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the United Sports FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mt. Rainier – United Sports FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.29 PPG |
11th— holds | 10th▲ up 1 | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.57 PPG |
7th▲ up 4 | 7th▲ up 4 | 10th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.29 PPG |
11th— holds | 10th▲ up 1 | 12th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.14 PPG |
12th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 1%
- 7th 3%
- 8th 6%
- 9th 11%
- 10th 16%
- 11th 22%
- 12th 21%
- 13th 14%
- 14th 5%
- 15th 1%
- 16th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Celtic | 3.00 (+1.67) | 1st (2.41) | 22 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Sound FC | 2.25 (+0.92) | 3rd (2.15) | 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Washington Rush | 2.17 (+0.84) | 2nd (2.16) | 14 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Atletico Oro | 2.00 (+0.67) | 4th (1.97) | 12 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 5 | Western WA Surf Academy Blue | 2.00 (+0.67) | 6th (1.69) | 12 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 6 | Sozo | 1.83 (+0.50) | 5th (1.75) | 11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection |
| 7 | United Sports FC | 1.50 (+0.17) | 7th (1.51) | A point next game |
| 8 | Highline Premier FC | 1.50 (+0.17) | 8th (1.44) | A point next game |
| 9 | Harbor SC | 1.33 (+0.00) | 10th (1.42) | A point next game |
| 10 | Atletico Azul | 1.33 (+0.00) | 12th (1.13) | A point next game |
How the results connect
16 chains · 12 teams
Paths of results that link Mt. Rainier to United Sports FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.46 · 4th hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:30 AM |
United Sports FC 7th · 3-0-3 · GD +0 |
Home Lakeridge Middle School · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.31 | 1.33 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
Atletico Rojo 13th · 1-1-4 · GD -13 |
Home Lakeridge Middle School · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.98 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 09:30 AM |
Seattle Celtic 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +11 |
Away Magnuson Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.42 | 1.30 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 03:30 PM |
Sound FC 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +18 |
Away Woodinville Sports Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.31 | 1.20 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Seattle Celtic | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.52 | +0.68 | 96% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Western WA Surf Academy Blue · Sun Nov 1 at Washington Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs Mt. Rainier See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Sound FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -1.45 | +0.47 | 85% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Harbor SC · Sun Oct 25 at Atletico Oro · Sat Oct 31 vs Sozo See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Washington Rush | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 13 | 2.17 | WDWLW | +0.11 | +0.14 | 89% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA Washington · Sun Nov 1 vs Seattle Celtic · Sat Nov 7 at Highline Premier FC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Atletico Oro | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 10 | 2.00 | WDWWL | +0.68 | -0.21 | 65% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sparta Tacoma · Sun Oct 25 vs Sound FC · Sat Oct 31 at Western WA Surf Academy Blue See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Western WA Surf Academy Blue | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 10 | 2.00 | DWWLW | -0.62 | +0.23 | 21% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Seattle Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs Atletico Oro · Sat Nov 7 at Harbor SC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Sozo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 11 | 1.83 | DWWLW | +0.45 | +0.17 | 27% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atletico Azul · Sat Oct 31 at Sound FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Warriors Sports Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | United Sports FC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 14 | +0 | 9 | 1.50 | LWLWL | -0.44 | -0.31 | 5% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Mt. Rainier · Sun Nov 1 vs BVBIA Washington · Sat Nov 14 at Seattle Celtic See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Highline Premier FC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 9 | 1.50 | LWWLW | +0.91 | -0.54 | 3% | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atletico Rojo · Sat Oct 31 at Seattle Celtic Green · Sat Nov 7 vs Washington Rush See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Harbor SC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 8 | 1.33 | WLDWL | +0.48 | +0.07 | 3% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sound FC · Sun Oct 25 at Warriors Sports Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Western WA Surf Academy Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Atletico Azul | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 | 1.33 | WLDDW | -0.21 | +0.99 | 0% | 11.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sozo · Sat Oct 31 vs Sparta Tacoma · Sat Nov 7 at Sound FC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Mt. Rainier | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 8 | 1.33 | LDLDW | +0.05 | +0.46 | 0% | 10.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs United Sports FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Atletico Rojo · Sat Nov 7 at Seattle Celtic See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Sparta Tacoma | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 7 | 1.17 | WLLWL | -0.34 | -0.17 | 6% | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Atletico Oro · Sat Oct 31 at Atletico Azul · Sat Nov 7 at Atletico Rojo See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Atletico Rojo | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 4 | 0.67 | LLDLL | -0.34 | -0.28 | 0% | 13.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Highline Premier FC · Sat Oct 31 at Mt. Rainier · Sat Nov 7 vs Sparta Tacoma See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | BVBIA Washington | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | -0.99 | +0.44 | 0% | 14.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Washington Rush · Sun Nov 1 at United Sports FC · Sun Nov 8 at Atletico Oro See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Seattle Celtic Green | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 3 | 0.50 | LLWLL | +0.17 | -1.27 | 0% | 12.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Warriors Sports Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Highline Premier FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Atletico Rojo See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Warriors Sports Academy | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 30 | -26 | 1 | 0.17 | LLDLL | +0.00 | +0.30 | 0% | 15.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle Celtic Green · Sun Oct 25 vs Harbor SC · Sun Nov 8 at Sozo See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.