Utica Surf SC
Elite Academy League · Northeast (West) U16 · 7 teams · Utica Surf SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 14, 01:00 PM
Skidmore College, Skidmore College Turf ↗ · turf
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)
| Season so far | Utica Surf SC | Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Skidmore College.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club sit 6th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utica Surf SC – Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 5 | 5th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 2 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 6 | 1st▲ up 6 | 4th▲ up 3 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 5 | 5th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 2 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 13%
- 2nd 15%
- 3rd 15%
- 4th 14%
- 5th 14%
- 6th 14%
- 7th 15%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 2 | FC Dutchmen Surf | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 3 | FC Dynamo ROC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 4 | NY Rush East | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 5 | Rochester Rush | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 6 | Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club | 0.00 (+0.00) | 6th (1.41) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 7th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Skidmore College · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
NY Rush East 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 AM |
NY Rush East 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 03:00 PM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Kevin T Keane Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.33 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.38 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 02:00 PM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Dicaprio park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.39 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
FC Dynamo ROC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 12:00 AM |
FC Dynamo ROC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 02:15 PM |
Rochester Rush 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Monroe Community College |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 PM |
Rochester Rush 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Nov 15 at FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Dynamo ROC · Sun Nov 22 vs NY Rush East See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Dutchmen Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 at FC Dynamo ROC · Sun Nov 15 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sat Mar 13 at Rochester Rush See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Dynamo ROC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 15 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 21 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | NY Rush East | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Nov 22 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy · Sat Mar 13 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy · Sun Mar 14 vs Utica Surf SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Rochester Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 13 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Apr 3 at FC Dynamo ROC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Utica Surf SC · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 22 at FC Dynamo ROC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Utica Surf SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sun Mar 14 at NY Rush East · Sat Apr 3 vs NY Rush East See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.