Rochester Rush
Elite Academy League · Northeast (West) U16 · 7 teams · Rochester Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Mar 13, 12:00 AM
TBD, TBD ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | Rochester Rush | FC Dutchmen Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
FC Dutchmen Surf average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
NY Rush East sit 4th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above NY Rush East on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Dutchmen Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rochester Rush – FC Dutchmen Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 3 | 6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 4 | 1st▲ up 4 | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 3 | 7th▼ down 2 | 7th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
7th▼ down 2 | 7th▼ down 2 | 7th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 15%
- 2nd 15%
- 3rd 16%
- 4th 13%
- 5th 14%
- 6th 15%
- 7th 13%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 2 | FC Dutchmen Surf | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 3 | FC Dynamo ROC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 4 | NY Rush East | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.41) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 5th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 AM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 02:15 PM |
FC Dynamo ROC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Monroe Community College |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 AM |
FC Dynamo ROC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 AM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 02:15 PM |
Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Monroe Community College |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 02:15 PM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Monroe Community College |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM |
Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 02:00 PM |
NY Rush East 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Monroe Community College |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.45 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 02:00 PM |
FC Dutchmen Surf 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Dicaprio park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 02:15 PM |
Utica Surf SC 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Monroe Community College |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 07:30 AM |
NY Rush East 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 PM |
Utica Surf SC 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Nov 15 at FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Dynamo ROC · Sun Nov 22 vs NY Rush East See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Dutchmen Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 at FC Dynamo ROC · Sun Nov 15 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sat Mar 13 at Rochester Rush See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Dynamo ROC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 15 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 21 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | NY Rush East | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Nov 22 at Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy · Sat Mar 13 vs Buffalo Pro Soccer Academy · Sun Mar 14 vs Utica Surf SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Rochester Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 13 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs FC Dynamo ROC · Sat Apr 3 at FC Dynamo ROC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Utica Surf SC · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Dutchmen Surf · Sun Nov 22 at FC Dynamo ROC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Utica Surf SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 at Saratoga-Wilton Soccer Club · Sun Mar 14 at NY Rush East · Sat Apr 3 vs NY Rush East See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.