Boise Thorns Pre- Two
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Utah GU12 · 7 teams · Boise Timbers | Thorns (all teams)
Next game — Sat Mar 13, TBD
Venue TBD
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.5 for, 1.3 against · 2.70 expected points)
| Season so far | Boise Thorns Pre- Two | Boise Thorns Pre- Three |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-2-1 | 1-0-4 |
| Points per game | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals for / game | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 4.8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W D | L L W L L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs Utah Surf PRE Black | 4–2 vs Utah Surf PRE Black |
| Worst loss | 3–5 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- North Souli T2 | 0–8 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- North Souli T2 |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.71 | -2.22 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.38 | +0.33 |
Common opponents: Idaho Rush Pre- Black — we 2–2; they 0–5. Utah Surf PRE Black — we 5–0; they 4–2. Utah Avalanche Pre- North Souli T2 — we 3–5; they 0–8. La Roca FC Pre North T2 — we 2–0; they 1–5.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Boise Thorns Pre- Three average 1.2 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 2 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Boise Thorns Pre- Three concede 4.8/game; worst result 0–8 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- North Souli T2.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 88% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Boise Thorns Pre- Three game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Boise Thorns Pre- Two – Boise Thorns Pre- Three) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.83 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.83 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.50 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
5th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 16%
- 3rd 41%
- 4th 29%
- 5th 14%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.42 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah Avalanche Pre- North Souli T2 | 3.00 (+1.40) | 1st (2.57) | 28 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Idaho Rush Pre- Black | 2.17 (+0.57) | 2nd (2.01) | 19 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
How the results connect
15 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Boise Thorns Pre- Two to Boise Thorns Pre- Three through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.05 · 5th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 12 TBD no score posted |
Boise Thorns Pre- Three 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -18 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
3–1 | 2.53 | 1.75 | Bank it |
| Sat Sep 19 08:30 AM no score posted |
Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II 5th · 1-0-1 · GD +1 |
Home Boise Timbers | Thorns Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 1.77 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Boise Thorns Pre- Three 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -18 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
4–1 | 2.70 | 1.89 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 09:00 AM |
Idaho Rush Pre- Black 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Optimist Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.08 | 1.80 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II 5th · 1-0-1 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–2 | 1.55 | 1.77 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 04:30 PM |
La Roca FC Pre North T2 4th · 2-0-2 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
La Roca Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–2 | 1.34 | 1.73 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Utah Avalanche Pre- North Souli T2 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +17 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–3 | 0.67 | 1.64 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Utah Avalanche Pre- North Souli T2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.64 | -0.18 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II · Sat Oct 17 vs La Roca FC Pre North T2 · Sat Mar 13 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Idaho Rush Pre- Black | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 13 | 2.17 | WWWLW | -0.14 | -0.15 | 99% | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Apr 3 vs Boise Thorns Pre- Two · Sat Apr 24 at La Roca FC Pre North T2 · Sat Apr 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- North Souli T2 See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Boise Thorns Pre- Two | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 8 | 1.60 | DWLW | +0.38 | -0.05 | 86% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Boise Thorns Pre- Three · Sat Sep 19 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II · Sat Mar 13 vs Boise Thorns Pre- Three See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | La Roca FC Pre North T2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 6 | 1.50 | WWLL | -0.66 | +0.61 | 67% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Aug 29 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II · Sat Oct 17 at Utah Avalanche Pre- North Souli T2 · Sat Oct 31 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | -0.57 | +0.38 | 48% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Aug 29 at La Roca FC Pre North T2 · Sat Sep 12 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- North Souli T2 · Sat Sep 19 at Boise Thorns Pre- Two See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Boise Thorns Pre- Three | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 24 | -18 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | +0.33 | +0.49 | 0% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Boise Thorns Pre- Two · Sat Mar 13 at Boise Thorns Pre- Two · Sat Apr 24 at Utah Surf PRE Black See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Utah Surf PRE Black | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.41 | +0.31 | 0% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- II · Sat Mar 13 at La Roca FC Pre North T2 · Sat Apr 3 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- North Souli T2 See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.54 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.