Mercury Pre- West

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU12 (2014-2015) · 6 teams · Mercury (all teams)

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5th

2-0-7 record · 9 played

0.67 points per game

-17 goal diff · 10–27

LLLWLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.0

+0.61 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:20 PM

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Mercury Pre- West
5th · 0.67 PPG

Cincinnati West Academy Elite II
6th · 0.38 PPG

Miami White Water Soccer Complex, Field 10 ↗

48% 19% 32%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.9 against · 1.65 expected points)

Season so far	Mercury Pre- West	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II
Position	5th	6th
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-7	1-0-7
Points per game	0.67	0.38
Goals for / game	1.1	1.0
Goals against / game	3.0	4.5
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	4	2
Form (recent first)	L W L L L	L W L L L
Biggest win	3–1 vs Cincinnati West Academy Elite II	2–1 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green
Worst loss	0–5 at Lexington Sporting Pre- Green	1–7 at Lexington Sporting Pre- Green
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.22	-2.28
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.61	+0.73

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 3–1 vs Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (W)

Common opponents: FC Dayton Pre — we 3–7, 2–1; they 0–3, 2–8. Ohio Elite SA Pre — we 0–1, 1–4; they 0–5, 1–3. Total Futbol Academy Elite — we 1–3, 0–4; they 1–6. Lexington Sporting Pre- Green — we 0–5, 0–1; they 1–7, 2–1.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Cincinnati West Academy Elite II average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 2 of 8.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Cincinnati West Academy Elite II concede 4.5/game; worst result 1–7 at Lexington Sporting Pre- Green.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–1 at Ohio Elite SA Pre, 0–5 at Lexington Sporting Pre- Green, 0–1 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green, 0–4 at Total Futbol Academy Elite.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 19% / loss 32%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 01:20 PM at Miami White Water Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Cincinnati West Academy Elite II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mercury Pre- West – Cincinnati West Academy Elite II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 0.90 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Win 0.90 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Draw 0.70 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Loss 0.60 PPG	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

5.0 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th 97%
6th 3%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 0.90 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Ohio Elite SA Pre	2.67 (+2.00)	1st (2.34)	21 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	FC Dayton Pre	2.14 (+1.47)	2nd (1.77)	16 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green	1.86 (+1.19)	3rd (1.68)	13 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Total Futbol Academy Elite	1.56 (+0.89)	4th (1.68)	10 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

59 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Mercury Pre- West to Cincinnati West Academy Elite II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

36 favour us

6 even

17 favour them

+1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -2.28 · 6th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 01:20 PM	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II 6th · 1-0-7 · GD -28	Away Miami White Water Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	2–1	1.65	0.76	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Ohio Elite SA Pre

+13

2.67

WDWWW

-0.96

+0.93

100%

1.2

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	3–1
W	Fri Oct 16	at	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dayton Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dayton Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	1–1	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dayton Pre

+12

2.14

LWWLW

-0.68

+1.12

100%

2.7

W	Fri Oct 23	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	8–2
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	4–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	0–2
W	Fri Sep 18	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	7–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Lexington Sporting Pre- Green See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	1–2	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Pre- Green

+12

1.86

WWWWL

-0.76

+1.10

100%

3.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	7–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 5	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	2–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Dayton Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	2–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Total Futbol Academy Elite

1.56

LLWLW

+0.10

-2.28

100%

3.1

W	Wed Oct 21	vs	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	3–4
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	6–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	3–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–0
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	3–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Cincinnati West Academy Elite II See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	4–1	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre- West

-17

0.67

LLLWL

+0.61

-2.28

5.0

L	Wed Oct 21	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	0–1
L	Fri Oct 16	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	3–7

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Cincinnati West Academy Elite II See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	2–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati West Academy Elite II

-28

0.38

LLLWL

+0.73

-0.26

6.0

L	Fri Oct 23	at	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	2–8
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	1–7
L	Fri Sep 18	vs	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Total Futbol Academy Elite · Sun Nov 1 vs Mercury Pre- West See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	1–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.