FC Dayton Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU12 (2014-2015) · 6 teams · FC Dayton (all teams)

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2nd

5-0-2 record · 7 played

2.14 points per game

+12 goal diff · 26–14

LWWLWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.7

-0.68 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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FC Dayton Pre
2nd · 2.14 PPG

Ohio Elite SA Pre
1st · 2.67 PPG

Ohio Elite Training Center, Field 3 ↗ far trip

21% 19% 60%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.4 for, 2.4 against · 0.81 expected points)

Season so far	FC Dayton Pre	Ohio Elite SA Pre
Position	2nd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-2	5-1-0
Points per game	2.14	2.67
Goals for / game	3.7	2.5
Goals against / game	2.0	0.3
Clean sheets	1	4
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	W L W W L	W W W D W
Biggest win	8–2 vs Cincinnati West Academy Elite II	5–0 vs Cincinnati West Academy Elite II
Worst loss	0–2 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.90	+1.20
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.68	-0.96

Common opponents: Mercury Pre- West — we 7–3, 1–2; they 1–0, 4–1. Cincinnati West Academy Elite II — we 3–0, 8–2; they 5–0, 3–1. Total Futbol Academy Elite — we 3–2, 4–3; they 0–0, 2–0.

Game plan

Hard to break down
Ohio Elite SA Pre concede only 0.3/game with 4 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 21%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Ohio Elite SA Pre have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Ohio Elite Training Center.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Ohio Elite SA Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dayton Pre – Ohio Elite SA Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.88 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1
Win 2.25 PPG	2nd— holds	1st▲ up 1	2nd— holds
Draw 2.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1
Loss 1.88 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

9% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.7 average finish

1st 9%
2nd 41%
3rd 17%
4th 33%
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Ohio Elite SA Pre	2.67 (+0.53)	1st (2.34)	12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection

How the results connect

56 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dayton Pre to Ohio Elite SA Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

25 favour us

6 even

25 favour them

-0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.12 · 1st hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM	Ohio Elite SA Pre 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13	Away far trip Ohio Elite Training Center	●●●●● Very tough	21%	1–2	0.81	1.98	Upside
Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM	Ohio Elite SA Pre 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13	Away far trip Ohio Elite Training Center	●●●●● Very tough	21%	1–2	0.81	1.85	Upside
Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +12	Away far trip Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex	●●●●○ Tough	28%	1–2	1.04	1.77	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Ohio Elite SA Pre

+13

2.67

WDWWW

-0.96

+0.93

100%

1.2

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	3–1
W	Fri Oct 16	at	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dayton Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dayton Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	1–1	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dayton Pre

+12

2.14

LWWLW

-0.68

+1.12

100%

2.7

W	Fri Oct 23	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	8–2
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	4–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	0–2
W	Fri Sep 18	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	7–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Lexington Sporting Pre- Green See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	1–2	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Pre- Green

+12

1.86

WWWWL

-0.76

+1.10

100%

3.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	7–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 5	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	2–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Dayton Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	2–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Total Futbol Academy Elite

1.56

LLWLW

+0.10

-2.28

100%

3.1

W	Wed Oct 21	vs	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	3–4
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	6–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	3–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–0
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	3–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Cincinnati West Academy Elite II See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	4–1	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre- West

-17

0.67

LLLWL

+0.61

-2.28

5.0

L	Wed Oct 21	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	0–1
L	Fri Oct 16	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	3–7

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Cincinnati West Academy Elite II See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (6th)	2–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati West Academy Elite II

-28

0.38

LLLWL

+0.73

-0.26

6.0

L	Fri Oct 23	at	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	2–8
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (3rd)	1–7
L	Fri Sep 18	vs	FC Dayton Pre (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (1st)	0–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Total Futbol Academy Elite · Sun Nov 1 vs Mercury Pre- West See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Mercury Pre- West (5th)	1–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.